Tramel's ScissorTales: Guess who could make the Big 12 title game? Believe it or not, OSU
Hey, OSU fans. Still hungry for some Big 12 Championship Game scenarios?
Dead Team Walking is 3-3 in the conference but has a path to Arlington that is not ridiculous.
After back-to-back trips to the Sunflower State that resulted in 48-0 and 37-14 losses to Kansas State and Kansas, respectively, the last thing OSU needs is an extra date with a good team, maybe even great team, like Texas Christian.
But the numbers are the numbers. And OSU’s road to the runner-up spot in the Big 12 is not particularly outrageous, other than the Cowboys remembering to pack their shoulder pads for the remaining games.
Here’s OSU’s path.
OSU wins out to finish 6-3. TCU beats both Baylor and Texas, pinning a third conference loss on each. Baylor beats Kansas State.
Under that scenario, OSU would win any tiebreakers, unless Texas beats Baylor and loses to Kansas. That could leave OSU and K-State tied at 6-3.
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None of that is beyond the bounds of believability, except the former. How could these Cowboys possibly win out?
You know the old line about teams needing help to win a league? OSU needs help. Internal help, to fix whatever is ailing the suddenly comatose Cowboys.
Texas, Kansas State and Baylor are far more likely to reach Arlington, mostly because OSU can’t be trusted to win out, even if the Cowboys finish with the three teams I’ve got ranked 8-9-10 – OU (Nov. 19), Iowa State (Saturday) and West Virginia (Nov. 26).
This is not an exercise in belief that the Cowboys could get to Arlington. It's a reminder of the great shape OSU was in after victories over Baylor and Texas.
Texas, Kansas State and Baylor all are 4-2 in the Big 12.
The bad news for the Bears is they’ve got by far the toughest remaining schedule: Baylor hosts K-State and TCU, then plays at Texas. The good news for the Bears is they need no help. Winning out puts Baylor in Arlington, and just beating KSU and Texas puts Baylor in Arlington, unless OSU wins out.
If Texas beats Baylor, it can afford another loss (against either TCU or Kansas), unless OSU wins out, of course.
Kansas State needs a Texas loss, else the Wildcats can’t make it. And the Longhorns certainly could lose again, since they have a tough finishing schedule.
Let’s get to the rankings, and remember, these are based on what teams have done. Not what I think they will do. Who have you played, where did you play and how did you do?
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Berry Tramel's Big 12 football power rankings
1. TCU (9-0, 6-0): The Horned Frogs probably must win out to reach the College Football Playoff. Even by sweeping its final four of Texas, Baylor, Iowa State and the Big 12 runner-up in the championship game, TCU will have detractors who will favor an 11-1 Tennessee or an 11-1 Big Ten runner-up.
2. Texas (6-3, 4-2): It’s not automatic that UT should be ranked ahead of K-State. The Wildcats have played a tougher conference schedule. They’ve got TCU behind them.
3. Kansas State (6-3, 4-2): Maybe Texas deserves to be ranked ahead of KSU based on non-conference schedule – playing Alabama tough makes up for a lot of sins.
4. Baylor (6-3, 4-2): The opposite of the Cowboys. The Bears have yet to play the top three teams in the conference.
5. Kansas (6-3, 3-3): Remember, the Jayhawks aren’t just .500 in the Big 12, they had a solid non-conference, including victories over Houston and Duke. The Blue Devils are 6-3.
6. Oklahoma State (6-3, 3-3): Dropping the Cowboys to sixth means I am taking margin of victory into account, which I am sworn to not do. But I am not looking at OSU’s final scores in Kansas; I am looking at the lack of competitive spirit.
7. Texas Tech (4-5, 2-4): The Red Raiders played tough in Fort Worth. Just as they did in Manhattan and Stillwater.
8. Oklahoma (5-4, 2-4): Who would have thought, 75% of the way through the season, and OU’s best win is against Kansas?
9. Iowa State (4-5, 1-5): Can the Cyclones finish with at least six wins and become bowl eligible? They need to win two of three against OSU, Tech and TCU, with only the Red Raiders in Ames.
10. West Virginia (3-6, 1-5): Winning out would get the Mountaineers to a bowl and might save Neal Brown’s job. WVU gets two straight home games (OU and K-State) before finishing in Stillwater.
More:Who will start at QB for Oklahoma State football? Mike Gundy isn't ready to say just yet.
Baylor's Aranda discusses victory over Sooners
Baylor beat OU 38-35 Saturday at Owen Field in a game that kept alive the Bears’ hopes for a Big 12 championship. Dave Aranda, not the most loquacious coach in the Big 12, nevertheless offered some insight into the Baylor victory.
Aranda’s opening statement: “I think to get a win when you don’t play your best, to get a win when you’re almost fighting against yourself. And I think there was multiple times in that game just on the sidelines where it was kind of reminiscent of West Virginia. It felt like that. It felt a lot like that game. And to pull it out somehow and to grit it out, all of it is a credit to the players, for sure. I think it shows good for your team.”
Tramel: Not a good sign for the Sooners, when Baylor comes to Norman, feels like it played not great and still goes home a winner.
Aranda on what happened to tailback Richard Reese, who entered as Baylor’s leading rush but played sparingly: “Yeah, we’re kind of battling kind of a flu bug that’s gone throughout the team. And so, he’s battling that right now.”
Tramel: Again, Reese is Baylor’s best tailback. Backup (or even third-teamer) Craig Williams ran for 192 yards on 25 carries. Doesn’t put the Sooners in a good light.
Aranda on running the ball at will on Baylor’s final touchdown drive in the fourth quarter: “Previous OU defense early in the year, odd fronts, four-down fronts, edge pressure, inside pressure, twists, everything. And these last two games, kind of four-down fronts, some corner pressure, some linebacker plugs, interior stuff, and really that’s kind of it. So not knowing what we’re going to get, and then getting into the game and they brought corner pressure, they brought some Mike plugs, and then they brought the Jack and Will (linebackers) from the boundary, a five-man hit. Having to make the adjustments for that and the identification of all of it, that’s one thing. But then the other thing was, I think, just the O-line knowing that hey, we need this. All right, we’ve got to do this to win this game. And that’s way impressive to see. You can build off of that for sure.”
Tramel: Lots of lingo in there. But I took that to mean that Brent Venables’ defense was at least trying stuff. That’s encouraging.
Aranda on if there was any hesitation on whether to go for it on fourth-and-1 from the Baylor 29-yard line on that touchdown drive: “No.”
Tramel: This is a journalism tip. Don’t ask questions that can be answered yes or no. A better question for Aranda would have been why did you not punt?
Aranda on Baylor’s inability to close out games earlier in the season and what has clicked in the last three games to change that: “That’s a good question. I think you just kind of keep coaching. But then, the relationship has got to be good enough to where when you want something and you’re not doing it and it’s all wrong – and then there’s a scoreboard and the losses pile up and then the criticism comes – to kind of stay together so that you can still coach and get what you were trying to get the whole time in the first place. I think losing just complicates things so much. I thought everyone really did a good job of that, and staying aligned and not losing themselves in the midst of losing.”
Tramel: Baylor lost two tight games that could have gone either way, at Brigham Young and at West Virginia. Stay out of the mountains, Bears. But Baylor’s other loss, 36-25 in Waco to OSU, was Cowboy-dominant. Closing out wasn’t the problem. Closing in was the problem.
Aranda on his defense producing three takeaways: “Yeah, turnovers. We got them a lot last year. And then this year, I remember there would be stretches of practice – three or four practices – where we would not get a turnover. And we would be doing drills on high-pointing the ball and it would just kind of look ugly and it would all be so bad. (laughs) Almost sad, really. But to stay with it, and this is the same thing, to stay with it – the coaches not criticizing but teaching, and the players to think that hey, this can actually happen. We can actually get turnovers. And to do the drills and to stay with it, especially when the criticism on all of it is the highest – it’s one thing to hear it, it’s another thing to actually do it. I’m proud of all of it, the coaches and the players, for that part. I think it was Wednesday in practice, I think we had six takeaways on defense. And so, if you get them in practice, you’re going to get them in the games. And it’s at that point right now where we’re getting them in bunches, so it’s a good thing.”
Tramel: Some of the turnover game is like NBA 3-point defense. Sometimes the other squad gets hot, sometimes it gets cold. You just do your best and see what happens. Baylor made some plays against OU, particularly getting hands up on the defensive line when quarterback Dillon Gabriel looked ready to launch, and it paid off.
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Leipold talks Kansas rout of OSU
Kansas fans rushed the field Saturday after a 37-16 rout of OSU, not so much because it was the Cowboys, but because it was KU’s sixth victory in this remarkable renaissance season. The Jayhawks, 6-3, have become bowl eligible.
Lance Leipold gets my vote for Big 12 coach of the year, even in the wake of Sonny Dykes’ unbeaten maiden season at TCU. Here is some of Leipold’s postgame press conference, with my responses:
Leipold on what the win means to the program: "As I told them, I'm really proud of them and happy for them. Especially, we look at the guys that have been around a long time and everything that they've kind of gone through. They persevered. They stayed with this program. And then holistically for this group and as I told them, we're pretty demanding and things. And there's a big reason why we are; for moments like this. And to see them play well, I thought we played physical today and did some things that challenged us. First play of the game, Devin broke a big one or something and it was a first down. I remember last year we didn't get a first down in the first half, and I think that's kind of a sock that really helped, as football teams come. And that's where I'm really proud of them. And you could say yeah, I mean, I know they're banged up. But I'm not gonna let that take away from the performances of some guys and the way Jason (Bean, quarterback) played as well."
Tramel: Good reminder on how things can change from year to year. OSU a year ago literally had one of the best defenses the Big 12 (or even Big Eight) has ever seen. This year, the Cowboys get shredded by KU. Don’t ever get too down on a situation. Just make sure you don’t let things fester.
Leipold on if this was KU’s best game in his two years on the job: "I haven't had time to really think about that. I'm gonna probably lean that way when I stop for a minute and think. I haven't looked at everything statistically. They still had 75 plays for 400 yards. But I didn't know we held them under 18 points again at home which, you know, college football is pretty difficult holding people under 21.”
Tramel: We figured quarterback Spencer Sanders was rather valuable to the Cowboys, so we didn’t need confirmation. And heck, Sanders went a week ago at K-State and OSU was blanked. So this game had little to do with freshman quarterback Garret Rangel going the whole way.
Leipold on Devin Neal being the first Jayhawks to record 200 rushing and 100 receiving yards: "I just heard that in the other room when I was doing the radio, so I wasn't aware of that. I don't know who sent this, tweeted it out; college football history or something. But on the way here they had Tony Sands’ 58 carries for whatever (396 yards for Kansas against Missouri in 1991). And I'm sitting on the bus, I saw it and I sent it to Devin kind of like, this might be one of those days. I don't know if we're gonna carry a guy 58 times, but he knew that he was going to be counted on a lot of ways today. I think it's kind of ironic and special and all the other words that I'm not probably finding that the hometown guy from Lawrence puts us into bowl eligibility."
Tramel: I’m a little bummed out for Moore High School’s Daniel Hishaw Jr., who was at least sharing the tailback load with Neal. Hishaw was injured against Iowa State and hasn’t played since. He missed all of last season with a hip injury. Bummer that Hishaw is missing a bunch of this Kansas renaissance.
Leipold again on Neal: "It's special because Devin Neil committed to the University of Kansas, and you don't always see that as much anymore. And I understand why. But Devin committed to the University of Kansas to be a Jayhawk. Not necessarily who the coach was, and I'm cool with that. You need people that are determined to help get programs turned around, and Devin Neal is definitely one of those."
Tramel: That is cool – and quite uncommon. With the transfer portal, Leopold is right. School loyalty mostly is gone with the wind.
Leipold on Jason Bean’s 73-yard touchdown run: "The tough thing is, that's one of those where you feel bad you're at ground level because I don't know if I'll get a chance to enjoy until I watch some highlights tonight. But when he kind of got on the far sideline, we all know how fast he is, it was like, we're waiting for one of those moments where we could really let him showcase that speed again. And it was it was one heck of a play, that's for sure."
Tramel: Bean’s touchdown probably was the most alarming part of the game. OSU’s inability to tackle was stark. I mean, I love Jason Bean as much as the next guy, but if you can’t tackle Kansas’ backup quarterback, there are fundamental issues that need addressing.
Leipold on the KU students dumping the goal posts in Potter Lake: "I think it's awesome. I think it's awesome. We know we have a special fan base here, one that's been through a lot, gone through some things. So to see the students take that opportunity, it's pretty neat."
Tramel: My question is, why dump it in Potter Lake? Why not plant it in front of the library and let students kick field goals in the middle of a Wednesday afternoon.
Leipold on the importance of making a bowl: "It says a lot about the players, of course, but I'm really proud and humbled by the work of our staff. To be able to do something like this. We joke on Tuesdays or Mondays or whatever we do, everybody thought about how many games this team could win … but the cool thing is that we get to be around each other longer, and a lot of these guys have no idea what that's really about and the experiences that you can have and so many ways that this becomes positive for this program and university and community that hasn't seen in over a dozen years."
Tramel: Good point. A bowl would indeed be a celebration for the Jayhawks – an extension of a special season. A bowl very well could be drudgery for the Sooners and Cowboys. Players opting out. Nobody excited. Rumdum experience.
Leipold on lopsided defeats to Iowa State and Oklahoma State last year and turning those into wins this season: "People say who's healthy and who's not. But like I said earlier, we didn't have a first down in the first half against these guys last year, got a first down on the first play. So I think that was kind of a way to look at it as, we're getting better and five different ways around here. Measuring stick? I look at this way. By the time the ball is kicked off a week from now, at 6 p.m. we will be evaluated in a different light again. That's we signed up for. But we're going to enjoy this, we got 24 hours to enjoy it. From the start, we talked about building a consistent winner. OK, so this is the first baby step.”
Tramel: Like I said, Leopold for coach of the year.
Leipold on his postgame chat with Mike Gundy: “You know, we talked more before the game about some things. Mike had come here this summer, with his son, to our camp, and we talked about those things and our travel, the competitiveness of this league. But during that time, he talked about the marked improvement of this program. And that's been kind of common through the talks and afterward, it was just the quick congratulations and good luck the rest of the way."
Tramel: Gage Gundy to Kansas. Start the rumors now.
More:OU football ready to 'move on' after three Dillon Gabriel INTs doom Sooners vs. Baylor
The List: NBA surprises
Pre-Thanksgiving NBA is notorious for surprise teams. Woebegone franchises off to great starts. Heralded teams off to sluggish starts.
Here are the NBA’s five most pleasant surprises, based on preseason win-loss projections and current record:
1. Jazz: Utah’s over-under win total was 23½ according to preseason odds. The Jazz is a third of the way to that total already, checking in at 8-3.
2. Spurs: San Antonio is 5-5, a 41-win pace when the Spurs’ over-under number on wins at 22½.
3. TrailBlazers: Portland is the exception on this list – a team expected to be average, not awful. The Blazers’ over-under number was 39½. But Portland is 6-3, on pace for 54-55 wins.
4. Thunder: OKC’s over-number was 23½. The Thunder is 4-5, on pace for 36½ wins.
5. Pacers: The Pacers have the exact record as the Thunder, 4-5, but was considered a notch above OKC, with a 24½ over-under number.
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Mailbag: OU’s fourth-and-1 wildcat
OU’s use of the wildcat formation – a direct snap to a tailback – on fourth-and-1 in Baylor territory Saturday in the second quarter, drew some questions.
Perry: “My son and I watching the game have a question we would really like you to ask Jeff Lebby or Brent. On the fourth-and-1 play call, when running the wildcat, why would you not have your two best players on the field in Dillon (Gabrie) and (Eric) Gray? It makes no logical sense, since with at least Dillion in there, you have three options (pass, run, handoff), and Gray is a better back than Major. Even if it did work, the questions would still be there. What is his love with the wildcat so much this year? Is this just who Lebby is? Isn't wildcat basically a sandlot football tactic? How often do you see that in pro” football?
Tramel: Actually, the wildcat returned to mainstream with the Miami Dolphins in the National Football League, probably 8-10 years ago.
The wildcat is not a gimmick. It’s a numbers game. More blockers than the defense can handle. OU used the wildcat to run somewhat effectively on Texas, without a passing threat. It’s definitely not a bad short-yardage strategy.
As for taking Gabriel off the field, I don’t believe the Sooners did. The wildcat can be offset by stocking the defensive line with run-stuffers, but defenses can only resort to that scheme if they know the quarterback is out of the play.
OU against Texas, and I’m quite sure against Baylor, kept Gabriel on the field, limiting Baylor’s willingness to substitute.
The question becomes, Major or Gray. A month ago, it was an easy choice. Gray was the better tailback, but Major was the more physical runner, probably best to tough his way to a yard gain.
However, Gray has gotten much better, and his ability to see the holes has made his inside running better. I had no problem with the wildcat, but I probably would have preferred to see Gray take the snap and try to find a yard.
Berry Tramel: Berry can be reached at 405-760-8080 or at btramel@oklahoman.com. He can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including FM-98.1. Support his work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Big 12 football power rankings: TCU, Texas lead league after Week 10
