Tramel's ScissorTales: Should OU & Oklahoma State fans have cheered for Alabama or Texas?
An interesting debate simmered Saturday afternoon, after Texas played the crimson off Alabama, only to lose 20-19 in a game the Longhorns deserved to win.
Texas was beset by multiple quarterback injuries and a variety of dubious officiating calls, yet had a chance to pull the upset.
The debate: Should Oklahomans have cast their allegiance for Bevo? Sure, Texas is a century-old foe of Sooners and only slightly less hated by Cowboys. But Bama is the evil empire.
The former argument falls back on recruiting. And it’s justifiable. The Longhorns are a recruiting force, and their success makes OU’s, and to a lesser extent OSU’s, recruiting more difficult.
But sometimes, that’s forest and trees stuff. Recruiting is important because it produces teams, which hopefully contend for championships.
And a Texas victory over Alabama absolutely would have been beneficial for the Sooners and Cowboys and every other Big 12 team with a sniff of championship hopes.
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Perhaps you haven’t heard, but Alabama hogs playoff spots. Eight years of the four-team format, seven appearances for the Crimson Tide, including once (2017) when the Tide didn’t win the Southeastern Conference.
The only thing that’s kept Alabama out of the playoff was a two-loss season. Bama went 10-2 in the 2019 regular season, losing shootouts of 46-41 to eventual national champion Louisiana State and 48-45 to arch-rival Auburn.
If the Tide had reversed that Iron Bowl result, the committee would have had to choose between a 12-1 OU and an 11-1 Bama. Does anyone really think the Sooners would have won that straw poll?
The committee never has selected a two-loss team for the four-team playoff and isn’t likely to, since the format soon will change to include 12 teams, no later than 2026 but perhaps as soon as 2024.
Which gets us back to Alabama-Texas. If the Longhorns had emerged the victor, Bama could have been halfway home to elimination. And remember, the Crimson Tide shares a conference with Georgia. Winning out is no sure thing for Alabama.
A Texas revival doesn’t do much for OU, especially as the ancient rivals go to the SEC. A Longhorn surge soon enough will be of only mild interest to OSU.
But in 2022, both the Sooners and Cowboys have designs on the playoff. They are ranked sixth and eighth, respectively, in The Associated Press poll. Both were playoff contenders a year ago, OU until Bedlam two days after Thanksgiving and OSU until falling three inches shy of victory in the Big 12 Championship Game.
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The playoff is not a pipe dream in either Stillwater or Norman. Both squads have to get better, a lot better, but either positively could make it.
But the path is a lot easier if Alabama is out of the way. After watching Georgia take apart Oregon 49-3 on Sept. 3, the playoff appeared halfway filled. Georgia because the Bulldogs are the creatures from the Black Lagoon, and Bama because Bama is unassailable.
Pin a loss in Austin on Nick Saban’s sabretooths, and all that changes. Another opening is at least possible.
Couple that with Notre Dame’s loss to Marshall, and that removes a backdoor possibility for the Irish, who have been in two of the previous four playoffs.
Suddenly, a 12-1 Big 12 champion has a better chance of being selected (13-0 is virtually automatic).
Sure, a Texas win over Alabama turns Bevo into Tornado, but at least the Sooners and Cowboys get their shots at the Longhorns, and neither game is in Austin.
I understand the emotions and the logic of Oklahomans wanting Texas to lose. But last Saturday, an Alabama defeat would have been the best thing for Cowboys and Sooners.
Let’s get to the weekly national rankings, and remember, this is not a projection. This is the top 10 based on what teams have done, not what I think they will do:
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1. Georgia 2-0: The Bulldogs were played about as tough by Samford as they were by Oregon, though let’s admit Georgia took it easy on Bobby Bowden’s alma mater.
2. Kentucky 2-0: Why the Wildcats at No. 2? No team has what I would call two marquee victories. So I give No. 2 to whoever has the best single victory. That would be UK, which won 26-16 at Florida, a week after the Gators stunned highly-regarded Utah 29-26.
3. Washington State 2-0: I assume the Cougars won’t stay this high. But winning 17-14 at Wisconsin was a stunner.
4. Marshall 2-0: The Thundering Herd shocked Notre Dame 26-21, the highlight of a Sun Belt festival of upsets.
5. Ohio State 2-0: The Buckeyes beat Notre Dame 21-10, controlling the game about the same as Marshall controlled the Fighting Irish. The difference? Marshall won in South Bend. Ohio State was at home in the Horseshoe against Notre Dame.
6. Brigham Young 2-0: The Cougars beat Baylor in double overtime. If the Bears hold up as a quality team, that’s a big win.
7. Florida 1-1: Two huge games already for the Gators. Win over Utah, loss to Kentucky.
8. Oregon State 2-0: The Beavers have two solid wins over typically-tough Mountain West opponents Boise State and Fresno State.
9. Alabama 2-0: Maybe Texas’ uprising Saturday was a mirage. Or maybe Bama has crash-landed back on Earth. Or maybe both. But for now, Texas looks legit, so credit the Crimson Tide for surviving.
10. Texas 1-1: And credit the Longhorns for playing it so close.
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The List: 2022 mid-major playoff contenders
The Sun Belt became the Won Belt on Saturday. Appalachian State shocked Texas A&M 17-14. Marshall stunned Notre Dame 26-21. Georgia Southern beat Nebraska 45-42.
A conference that just three years ago had the least status among Division I-A leagues now is the king of the Group of Five conferences that constantly fight for recognition and prestige in the shadow of the big boys.
And in the wake of Cincinnati’s crashing of the four-team College Football Playoff last year, could a Sun Belt team make the field in 2022?
Truth is, not likely. Not likely at all.
The Sun Belt with the best win already seems out of the running. Had Appalachian State completed that remarkable game against North Carolina on Saturday, then sure, put the Mountaineers as bonafide contenders.
Appalachian State would have non-conference victories over A&M and UNC, plus the potential to run the table in the Sun Belt, with games against Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, Coastal Carolina, Marshall and James Madison. Then a Sun Belt title game.
Alas, Carolina held on for a 63-61 victory, eliminating the Mountaineers from the mid-major criteria: Play in a top-shelf Group of Five league, win all your games and beat an elite Power Five squad.
That’s the model Cincinnati followed last season. The American Conference clearly was a deep league. The Bearcats went 13-0. And Cincy beat playoff contender Notre Dame, in South Bend no less, 24-13.
So if not Appalachian State, then who? What teams outside the Power Five could crash the party in 2022?
Only 13 teams outside the Power Five remain unbeaten, and that number will shrink quickly. Here are the 13, ranked by their chances of playoff contention:
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1. Brigham Young: If the Cougars run the table, they would make a viable candidate. BYU beat Baylor in double-overtime Saturday night. The Cougars play at Oregon this week. BYU also plays Arkansas, Notre Dame and Stanford. The Cougars are independent, so they won’t have a conference championship, but a 12-0 record would at least have BYU in the discussion.
2. Marshall: The Thundering Herd’s victory at Notre Dame should resonate all season, unless the Fighting Irish collapse. And any 13-0 Sun Belt champion will have a decent collection of solid wins.
3. Southern Methodist: The Mustangs play Maryland and Texas Christian. If the Terrapins and Horned Frogs could have standout seasons after losing to SMU, that would help a bunch. Sweeping the American Conference still stands for something, since Cincinnati and Houston remain solid teams despite early-season defeats. But without a victory more notable than Maryland or TCU, SMU remains a longshot.
4. Liberty: The Flames also are independents, but they still get to play Wake Forest, Arkansas and Virginia Tech. That 12-0 record wouldn’t shine like a victory over Notre Dame, Oregon or Baylor, but it would at least be interesting.
5. Toledo: The Rockets play at Ohio State on Saturday. I guess that makes this as good a time as any to point out that getting playoff committee support for a 13-0 Mid-American Conference champion is not nearly as difficult as beating Ohio State so that 13-0 is possible.
6. Louisiana-Lafayette: The Ragin’ Cajuns likely are headed for the middle of the Sun Belt. But on their schedule is Florida State. If the 2-0 Seminoles could put together a strong season yet still lose to ULL, the Cajuns would have a better resume’ than most Sun Belt scenarios.
7. South Alabama: The Jaguars play at UCLA. If the Bruins develop into a strong team after a loss to USA, the Jags could at least state a case.
8. Tulane: The Green Wave plays at Kansas State on Saturday. A win over KSU could look good in December.
9. Western Kentucky: The Hilltoppers play at Indiana and at Auburn. If the latter gets its act together and is a Southeastern Conference heavyweight, yet loses to WKU on November 19, an unbeaten Hilltoppers team would at least be a New Year’s Six bowl contender.
10. James Madison: The Dukes’ only Power Five opponent is Louisville. JMU needed the Cardinals to be much better.
11. Georgia Southern: Same with GSU and Nebraska.
12. Air Force: The Falcons walloped Colorado on Saturday, but CU is a shell of the Bill McCartney days. Colorado is drafting the Buffaloes into playoff contention.
13. Coastal Carolina: The Chanticleers’ only Power Five foe is lowly Virginia.
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Comparing Russell Wilson & Kevin Durant
Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson made his return to Seattle on Monday night after 10 years quarterbacking the Seahawks. Reminded me greatly of Kevin Durant’s return to Oklahoma City in February 2017, after signing with the Golden State Warriors.
A few comparisons:
➤ Durant played eight years with the Thunder, after one year with the SuperSonics, before they moved to OKC. Wilson played 10 seasons with the Seahawks.
➤ Durant was booed lustily by the OKC crowd upon his return. So was Wilson by the Seattle crowd Monday night. I was in the arena for the Durant return. I was watching on ESPN when Wilson returned Monday night. Durant’s reception seemed more venomous, but that’s likely the result of an indoor arena. Put a dome on the Seahawks’ Lumen Field, and the volume would have gone up, though it might be the loudest stadium in the National Football League. Still, some thought the reception for Wilson would be mixed. Didn’t seem to be.
➤ Durant was mostly stoic 5½ years ago on his return. He was measured and matter of fact in any comments about OKC or the reception. Even in victory. The Warriors routed the Thunder 130-114. Wilson was mostly charming Monday night. He smiled pre- and post-game and talked about his good times in Seattle. Even in defeat. The Seahawks stunned the Broncos 17-16.
➤ Durant left OKC without a championship. He led the Thunder to one NBA Finals, four Western Conference finals and a 10-6 playoff series record. Wilson left Seattle with one championship. He led the Seahawks to two Super Bowls and a 9-7 playoff record.
➤ Durant was in his prime in summer 2016, at age 27. Heck, he still is a phenomenal player, despite turning 34 in two weeks. Wilson turns 34 in November. He appears to be no longer in his prime, though Wilson’s prime came at an earlier age than most NFL quarterbacks. Wilson’s play has been declining, albeit slightly, in recent years.
➤ Durant left OKC after fulfilling his contract. He was a free agent and, as far as we know, never asked for a trade. Wilson left Seattle by demanding a trade.
➤ Durant’s departure seemed more personal to OKC than Wilson’s to Seattle, but that’s likely the basketball/football dynamic. Durant averaged 90something games a year, in a sport in which his face and emotions were quite accessible. Wilson averaged 18 or so games a year, wearing a helmet and virtual body armor.
➤ Durant’s departure left the Thunder in scramble mode. Losing a superstar with nothing in return cripples a building plan. Wilson’s departure at least brought the Seahawks some quality ballplayers and five primo draft picks.
➤Durant was one of the NBA’s two or three best players his final five seasons in OKC. Wilson never was one of the NFL’s two or three best quarterbacks, I don’t suppose, but he was awfully good. NBA superstars are hard to find. So are elite NFL quarterbacks.
➤ Six years after Durant’s exodus, the ice is slowly melting – but only slowly – in Oklahoma’s collective feeling about Durant. We’ll see how the Seattle/Wilson relationship ages.
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Rookie coach: To kick or pass?
Russell Wilson’s return to Seattle was upstaged by rookie Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett’s game-ending decision.
With 1:11 left in the game, Seattle led 17-16 and the Broncos had the ball at their 45-yard line, facing third-and-14. Wilson threw short to tailback Javonte Williams, who broke a tackle and managed to make nine yards.
Denver faced fourth-and-5, and the clock mystifyingly continued to run. On the Seahawks’ sideline, Pete Carroll and staff scrambled to set a defense. In the Monday Night Football booth, Joe Buck and Troy Aikman went on camera and discussed the situation. Across America, fans waited for a fourth-down play that would determine if Denver’s drive stayed alive.
No one considered that the Broncos might settle for a 64-yard field goal. But that’s exactly what Hackett did.
Hackett, armed with three timeouts, allowed the clock to run down to 20 seconds before calling time. Out came kicker Brandon McManus.
ESPN hurriedly returned the cameras to the field, while Buck and Aikman tried to make sense of it all. Carroll called timeout as McManus prepared to try the field goal, not so much to ice the kicker as to get his special-teams unit prepped.
Hackett’s decision was not outright lunacy. Some in the analytics crowd suggested that trying a 64-yard field goal gave Denver a 37% chance of winning, while giving Wilson another play to make a first down and getting McManus a closer kick gave Denver a 41% chance of winning.
But Aaron Schatz, the creator of Football Outsiders, an NFL advance stats organization, had much lower ratios. He gave Denver a 36.1% chance of winning by running a play on fourth-and-5, but just a 7.4% chance of winning with a 64-yard field goal.
Massively long kicks have become the norm in the NFL. Cleveland’s Cade York boomed a 58-yard field goal to beat the Panthers on Sunday, and the kick would have been good from 70 yards out.
NFL kickers made four of nine attempts from 60 yards or longer last season. Still, 64-yard field goals are rare. In NFL history, kickers only twice have made field goals of at least 64 yards – Matt Prater in 2013 at Denver (thin air) and Justin Tucker in 2021 at Detroit (dome).
McManus was asked to do it outside, in usually damp Seattle.
McManus had told his coaches 64 yards was the target – he was confident he could make it from that distance.
But McManus has made just one of five attempts in his career from 60 yards or longer. He made a 61-yarder last season.
Teams that try 64-yard field goals do so out of necessity. They are not out of downs, they are out of time.
Oh, if it was fourth-and-19 with 45 seconds or 20 seconds left, maybe you kick. But fourth-and-5, with Wilson as your quarterback, on a night when he was quite efficient on the short passing game?
The better move is to give your $245 million quarterback the chance to produce 5-10 yards, then let your boom-legged kicker try a field goal from a distance that starts with a 5, not a 6.
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Mailbag: Scott Frost firing
Nebraska’s firing of Scott Frost on Sunday, six days before the Sooners play in Lincoln, has some fans frustrated, including a combination OU-Kansas fan.
Tom: “I wish Nebraska had waited until after the OU game to take this action. I just have seen so many times an interim head coach is announced, the team plays so far above their abilities. I would bet the Nebraska players and fans in the stands will be far more excited than if this had happened after the OU game. I am glad the new AD and chancellor at KU took proactive steps to extend and renew the contract for (football coach Lance) Leipold not now but before the season. At the time, he called it humbling and appreciated. I realize it is not at the top, but six years at $2.75 million and increased the final year to $3.5 million puts it in line with others not named OU or Texas. How many coaches get that type of raise coming off a 2-10 season? It showed the university commitment to the progress he was making. I see in some writings he is among those mentioned for the Nebraska job but might not be ‘sexy’ enough and he is 58 years old. Hopefully, Nebraska will look elsewhere.”
Tramel: Actually, as my list in the Monday ScissorTales showed, not that many interim head coaches make a big splash. Jerry Kill with Texas Christian last year, after Gary Patterson’s departure, was a notable exception, with an upset of Baylor.
As for Leipold and Kansas, I have no idea if the Huskers would look at Leipold, who is 4-10 at KU, which is about the same as going 32-2 at Ohio State. Leipold’s Jayhawks have won Big 12 road games at West Virginia and Texas, the latter last November, ending a 56-game conference road losing streak.
But $2.75 million a year is not in line with the mainstream Big 12. Mike Gundy is making $7.5 million. Baylor’s Dave Aranda is making $6 million. Iowa State’s Matt Campbell and Cincinnati’s Luke Fickell are making $5 million.
Kansas still lags behind. And Nebraska can, and will, pay a bunch.
Berry Tramel: Berry can be reached at 405-760-8080 or at btramel@oklahoman.com. He can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including FM-98.1. Support his work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Texas win vs. Alabama would have helped OU, Oklahoma State football
