Tramel's ScissorTales: How SEC could place three teams in College Football Playoff
Tennessee beat Alabama. Only nine unbeatens remain in major-college football, and among them are the Volunteers, Syracuse, Texas Christian, UCLA and Ole Miss.
Sounds like a revolution. Sounds like a healthy dose of parity has hit a top-heavy sport. Sounds like some fresh air is flowing into college football.
But be warned. The results of Saturday, one of the most dramatic days in recent college football history, could have the reverse effect. Could produce the sum of all fears.
A College Football Playoff consisting of just two conferences. And/or a playoff consisting of three teams from one conference, the Southeastern.
Sorry to rain on a parade, but neither scenario is kooky. Both could happen after a wild Saturday.
The drama was led by Tennessee, which beat Alabama 52-49 on a walkoff field goal. Meanwhile, TCU beat OSU 43-40 in double overtime and Utah beat Southern Cal 43-42.
And in a game sorely lacking in drama, Michigan waxed Penn State 41-17 in a game not nearly that close.
All of which set up the possibility, in some cases probability, of the following finishes going into the playoff selections:
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➤The Ohio State-Michigan loser finishes 11-1, while the winner finishes 13-0 with a Big Ten championship. Chances of happening: decent. It will take a major upset for someone to beat either the Wolverines or Buckeyes before they meet each other. Penn State appears to be the Big Ten’s third-best team, and the Nittany Lions were no match for Michigan.
➤ The Georgia-Tennessee winner otherwise wins out until losing in the SEC Championship Game. Alabama beats Ole Miss and wins out, including a victory over the Georgia-Tennessee winner in the title game.
That would make Alabama 12-1, the Georgia-Tennessee winner 12-1 and the Georgia-Tennessee loser 11-1. And if Ole Miss otherwise wins out, too, the Rebels would be 11-1.
Chances of all that happening: not great. Lots of capable teams in the SEC, especially in the West Division. But in the East, Tennessee’s second-toughest remaining game is at home against Kentucky. Georgia still plays Florida in Jacksonville and has road games at Kentucky and Mississippi State, but does anyone think the Bulldogs will lose any of those?
➤ TCU, UCLA and the Clemson-Syracuse winner all lose.
Chances of that happening? Great, for the Horned Frogs and Bruins, who aren’t like to run the table. TCU still plays Kansas State and Texas; heck, every Big 12 opponent is capable. There are no automatic wins in the conference. And TCU would have a rematch in the Big 12 Championship Game with someone. Meanwhile, UCLA still has Oregon and USC, plus a potential Pac-12 Championship Game. If the Bruins win out, they would host likely Oregon, USC or Utah in the Rose Bowl, which is not a formidable home atmosphere.
Here’s what it all means.
The playoff could consist of two teams from the SEC and two teams from the Big Ten.
Or the playoff could consist of three SEC teams plus the Big Ten champ.
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With Tennessee already having beaten Alabama, if Georgia beats Tennessee, then Bama beats Georgia, the SEC hype machine would go into overdrive.
A one-loss conference champ from the Pac-12, Big 12 or Atlantic Coast Conference probably wouldn’t hold up against any of those SEC résumés.
The only debate might be something like 11-1 Tennessee or Georgia vs. 11-1 Michigan or Ohio State.
The SEC dominates the sport competitively, and the SEC and Big Ten dominate the sport financially. The soon-to-come 12-team playoff will eliminate some, not all, of the political clout of those two leagues in the post-season, but at least access wouldn’t be denied to the other Power Five leagues.
Such an assurance does not exist in 2022. We could have two SEC and two Big Ten teams in the four-team playoff. Or three SEC reps and one Big Ten rep. The sum of all fears for the rest of college football.
Here are my weekly rankings, and remember, this list is based not on projections, but on what teams have done. Who did you play, where did you play and how did you do?
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Berry Tramel's Week 8 college football rankings
1. Tennessee 6-0: Not a bad resume’ even before the Volunteers beat Alabama. Home win over Florida. Road win at Louisiana State, which has scratched its way to 5-2.
2. TCU 6-0: The win over OSU was big time, and the reverse-mirror wins over OU and Kansas are solid.
3. Clemson 7-0: A good win at Florida State. The Tigers have no great wins but have a long string of good wins. Wake Forest, North Carolina State, FSU. Even the Georgia Tech win now is acceptable, since the Yellow Jackets have turned into something you can stand to live with.
4. Georgia 7-0: It’s been a long time since Georgia-Tennessee was the SEC’s East showdown game. Forever it was Florida-Tennessee, then it was Georgia-Florida. But get ready for a November 5 showdown.
5. Michigan 7-0: The Wolverines’ non-conference schedule was trash, but Michigan’s rout of Penn State was not.
6. UCLA 6-0: The Bruins’ dominating win over Utah looks a lot better since the Utes beat Southern Cal.
7. Ole Miss 7-0: The Rebels don’t have a marquee victory, but the win over Kentucky comes close.
8. Alabama 6-1: The Crimson Tide still has more good wins than most teams can claim - Texas, Arkansas, Texas A&M (sort of).
9. Ohio State 6-0: The Buckeyes make the top 10 mostly because great wins are in short supply across the nation. Ohio State has a bunch of wins over name brands that haven’t lived up to their pedigree – Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Michigan State.
10. Oregon 5-1: A couple of decent wins, Brigham Young and Washington State, don’t make up for the 49-3 loss to Georgia, but again, I don’t hold margin of victory much against teams.
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Big 12 efficiency: Texas No. 1 in both offense and defense
Texas is No. 1 in both offense and defense in my weekly Big 12 efficiency ratings. I have no idea if the Longhorns will stay there, but it’s no secret why UT is No. 1.
Early in the season – every Big 12 teams has played either three or four conference games – individual games carry more weight than they will later in the season.
And the ‘Horns’ 49-0 rout of OU on October 8 is a huge outlier in this Big 12 season.
Of the 17 league games contested this season, 10 were one-possession finishes. Four others were decided from nine to 11 points.
Only two blowouts have been recorded, with OU on the wrong end of both: 49-0 to Texas and 55-24 to Texas Christian.
When most games are tight, a 49-0 whitewash stands out. Here’s a way to look at it: for Texas to be evened out just from that Red River rout, the ‘Horns would need three 16-point losses.
But that’s the good thing about the season. Things indeed to even out.
Remember how I evaluate offenses and defenses. How often do you do your job? An offense’s job is to score each time it takes the field. A defense’s job is to prevent the opponent from scoring each time it takes the field.
So I measure touchdowns and field goals (the latter is worth half credit), divided by possessions. For defenses, I use the opponents’ offensive efficiency, so that we get numbers on the same scale.
Here are the rankings this week:
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Big 12 offensive efficiency rankings
1. Texas .525: Iowa State’s vaunted defense slowed the Longhorns, but not enough to knock UT from the top perch. Now OSU gets a shot at Texas.
2. West Virginia .500: The Mountaineers indeed have a good offense. WVU’s offense was more productive against Baylor than was OSU’s offense.
3. TCU .439: Surprised? Thought the Horned Frogs might be at the top? You shouldn’t be. TCU had three touchdowns and three field goals in 13 possessions against OSU. That’s good offense but not great offense.
4. Baylor .411: The Bears are off to a disappointing start (1-2) in conference, but you shouldn’t blame the offense. This is a solid number.
5. Kansas .411: Outstanding number, considering KU has played almost two full games (out of four) without starting quarterback Jalon Daniels.
6. Oklahoma State .372: Not bad, but needs to be better if OSU is to be a Big 12 title contender.
7. Kansas State .371: Not as much pressure on K-State's offense to produce, since the Wildcats’ defense in theory will be stout.
8. Texas Tech .346: We’re getting further and further from Tech’s status as an offensive juggernaut.
9. Oklahoma .308: For the record, OU’s number with Dillon Gabriel quarterbacking is .451, which is excellent. That’s still no excuse not to have a reliable backup QB.
10. Iowa State .250: The Cyclones, I’m afraid, are doomed to worst-in-the-conference when it comes to offense.
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Big 12 defensive efficiency rankings
1. Texas .275: The Longhorns were blessed to play the Sooners with Davis Beville quarterbacking OU. Texas still would have smacked around the Sooners had Gabriel played, but OU would have scored at a decent rate.
2. Kansas State .284: Will this number hold up? K-State allowed four touchdowns and two field goals in 12 possessions against OU, and otherwise, the Wildcats have played two of the Big 12’s more meager offenses in Iowa State and Texas Tech.
3. Iowa State .295: This is no mirage. The Cyclones have been playing stellar defense for years, and this number was earned against good offenses like Texas, West Virginia and Kansas.
4. TCU .305: The Horned Frogs have some good karma going on. They got to play against a banged-up Spencer Sanders and had just 1½ quarters against Gabriel.
5. Oklahoma State .321: This is bunch of defenses close at the top. Five Big 12 teams separated by only 46 percentage points. OSU’s defensive performance against TCU – three touchdowns and three field goals allowed in 13 possessions – is somewhat promising.
6. Baylor .403: Ouch. The Bears figured to have a better defense than this. Hence the 1-2 conference record.
7. Texas Tech .446: The Red Raiders have gone against Texas, OSU and Kansas State, three of the better offenses in the league, so expect this number to go down.
8. Kansas .466: Over the desolate years, KU occasionally found some solid offense. Rarely did the Jayhawks find much defense, which is KU coach Lance Leipold’s primary mission.
9. Oklahoma .519: It’s one thing to get run over by Kansas State, TCU and Texas. It’s another thing to allow six touchdowns to a Kansas offense led by backup QB Jason Bean.
10. West Virginia .603: The Mountaineers got a defensive touchdown against Baylor and won 43-40. I don’t factor in defensive scores, but if you’re going to allow points by the bushel, scoring a few yourself is recommended.
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Projections
One of the fun things to do with these numbers is project a final score, using average number of possessions for each unit and its efficiency averages. It’s not meant to be a prediction, but rather a general guide of the kind of game you might see.
Texas at Oklahoma State: Longhorns 34-26. The Cowboys will need a bigger game than this from their offense.
Kansas State at Texas Christian: Horned Frogs 33-28. I might have expected a higher score. Hold someone to 28 in this game, and you’re likely to win.
Kansas at Baylor: Bears 33-30. Closer than I might have thought. Could Baylor be in trouble?
West Virginia at Texas Tech: Red Raiders 38-36. The tides have turned. WVU has the better offense, Tech the better defense.
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NBA predictions: Clippers-Bucks Finals
The NBA season starts Tuesday, and more teams than ever will join the Thunder in tanking.
New to the club are San Antonio, Utah and Indiana, to join recent regulars OKC, Houston and Orlando. Plus Sacramento, we always have with us.
But don’t expect to see a bunch of teams pad their win totals due to the draft-focused crowd. More star players are resting than ever before. Regular-season success is less a priority than ever before.
Ironically, won-loss record is more important to the bottom of the standings than the top.
Here are my predictions, along with playoff projections. Hint: I’m picking a first-time champ.
Western Conference
Northwest Division: Nuggets 52-30, Timberwolves 50-32, TrailBlazers 41-41, Thunder 29-53, Jazz 16-66.
Denver will be hungry to excel after Jamal Murray missed all of last season. Minnesota will face some adjustment pairing twin towers Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. I don’t buy into the Blazers-will-stink theories.
Southwest Division: Memphis Grizzlies 52-30, Dallas Mavericks 51-31, New Orleans Pelicans 48-34, Houston Rockets 27-55, San Antonio Spurs 22-60.
Memphis is running back its up-and-coming roster. Probably wise. New Orleans is rising, too, but in the middle is Dallas, which will benefit from Christian Wood, who seems like a good sidekick to Luka Doncic.
Pacific Division: Los Angeles Clippers 53-29, Golden State Warriors 49-33, Phoenix Suns 48-34, Los Angeles Lakers 40-42, Sacramento Kings 31-51.
The Clippers might be the best team in the league but will lose some games because of load management with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The Warriors will coast, and the Suns are a bit of a mess. Not as big a mess as the Lakers, though.
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Eastern Conference
Southeast Division: Miami Heat 52-30, Atlanta Hawks 44-38, Charlotte Hornets 36-46, Washington Wizards 33-49, Orlando Magic 26-56.
Miami is rugged, so long as the Jimmy Butler/Bam Adebayo combination remains. Atlanta strikes me as on the decline.
Atlantic Division: Boston Celtics 54-28, Philadelphia 76ers 54-28, Brooklyn Netropolitans 50-32, Toronto Raptors 45-37, New York Knickerbockers 34-48.
What a division. Toronto is the fourth-best team. But Boston is on a mission.
Central Division: Milwaukee Bucks 53-29, Cleveland Cavaliers 46-36, Chicago Bulls 38-44, Detroit Pistons 32-50, Indiana Pacers 24-58.
Can the Cavs become this season’s version of the Grizzlies, a young team ready to bloom? I’m betting it takes Cleveland a little longer than Memphis. Meanwhile, Billy Donovan’s Bulls are in decline.
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Playoffs
West
Play-in
8-Suns over 7-Pelicans
10-Lakers over 9-Blazers
7-Pelicans over 10-Lakers
First round
1-Clippers over 8-Pelicans
4-Mavericks over 5-Timberwolves
2-Nuggets over 7-Suns
6-Warriors over 3-Grizzlies
Semifinals
1-Clippers over 4-Mavericks
2-Nuggets over 6-Warriors
West Finals
1-Clippers over 2-Nuggets
East
Play-in
7-Raptors over 8-Hawks
9-Bulls over 10-Hornets
8-Hawks over 9-Bulls
First round
1-Celtics over 8-Hawks
5-Nets over 4-Heat
2-76ers over 7-Raptors
3-Bucks over 6-Cavaliers
Semifinals
1-Celtics over 5-Nets
3-Bucks over 2-76ers
Finals
3-Bucks over 1-Celtics
NBA Finals
Clippers over Bucks
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The List: High school football parity
The state’s large-school class once was known for its lack of parity. From 1996 through 2016, either Jenks or Tulsa Union won every state football championship. All 22 of them.
Owasso broke through in 2017, then Broken Arrow in 2018, and Owasso again 2019, before Jenks returned to the throne the last two seasons.
But a new lack of parity has arrived. Instead of two (or maybe a fellow Tulsa suburb upstart) schools contending in the exclusive club, the Class 6A-I state championship is all but decided, with Bixby moving up a class this season and dominating the field. Bixby has defeated Owasso 49-14, Norman North 63-7 and Broken Arrow 77-17. The entire 6A-I season is a coronation.
But high school football once touted much more drama. There was an era in Oklahoma when all kinds of teams were capable of winning the championship.
From 1976 through 1987, 12 seasons, the large-school class championships were won by 12 schools. That’s right. No repeat winners, in a class that mostly had 32 schools.
Those were the salad days. Most people can’t even fathom a system in which Southmoore might be only a couple of years away from contending for a championship, or Enid has a chance. But that was true. That era actually existed.
Every few years, I trot out this list to remind football fans of a time when high school football was more competitive. Here are the 12 winners of Oklahoma’s large-class schools from 1976-87:
1976: Del City
1977: Putnam City
1978: Tulsa McLain
1979: Tulsa Hale
1980: Tulsa Memorial
1981: Putnam West
1982: Jenks
1983: Enid
1984: Tulsa Washington
1985: Midwest City
1986: Muskogee
1987: Lawton
And after Midwest City won again in 1988 – Cale Gundy quarterbacked a title team to match brother Mike Gundy’s 1985 championship – four additional schools won the next four titles. Edmond Memorial in 1989, Lawton Eisenhower in 1990, Putnam North in 1991 and Norman in 1992. That’s 16 schools winning state championships in a 17-year span.
Only 16 schools are in 2022 Class 6A-I. Five of those 16 didn’t even exist during the parity era - Norman North, Edmond Santa Fe, Westmoore, Edmond North and Southmoore. And the vast majority of 6A-I teams know they have no chance, now or in the near future, at title contention.
You know what happened to the parity. Several schools got bigger – much bigger. In the Oklahoma City metro, the big suburban school districts split their high schools. In the Tulsa metro, the big suburban schools did not split.
Serious weight-training and off-season workouts took hold, and schools with more support systems had a big advantage. Transfers increased, with better players flocking to more successful programs, and today neither the National Football League nor college football have a thing on high school football transiency.
The result is a preponderance of one-sided games and few programs with a realistic chance of winning big.
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Mailbag: OU alternate uniforms
The alternate uniforms that the Sooners displayed against Kansas
– anthracite in color, with crimson trim and numbers - drew a lot of response.
Jim: “Nice article on alternate uniforms. I’m a traditionalist and don’t like change. But the unity message I totally respect, and I admire these young men and the program for promoting it. Maybe it will make some other folks in our generation think.”
Tramel: Maybe. Probably not. I’m pessimistic about my generation’s empathy.
But let’s talk about the uniforms. The message was solid gold. The aesthetics were a disaster.
The numbers were too difficult to distinguish, and with no names on the backs of the jerseys, identifying players became a difficult mission. It took forever for people in the stands and watching on television to figure out it was Gavin Freeman, No. 82, not Drake Stoops, No. 12, who made the diving catch of Dillon Gabriel’s deep ball.
Even ESPN’s Dave Flemming brought up the issue, saying how difficult it was for him to read the number. And I’ve heard reports that even the OU radio crew struggled.
Two lessons. 1) In the 21st century, names on the backs of jerseys are a must. 2) Contrast is vital. There’s no substitute for light jerseys or light numbers.
Berry Tramel: Berry can be reached at 405-760-8080 or at btramel@oklahoman.com. He can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including FM-98.1. Support his work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: How the SEC could get three teams in College Football Playoff
