Tramel's ScissorTales: Welcome to the Big 12, college football's chaos league of 2022
The Big 12 has staged four conference games so far in 2022.
The underdog has won all four games. A big underdog, in three of the four.
OU was favored by 13½ points over Kansas State. K-State won 41-34.
Texas was favored by 9½ over Texas Tech. Tech won 37-34 in overtime.
West Virginia was favored by 12½ points over Kansas. KU won 55-42 in overtime.
Iowa State was favored by 2½ points over Baylor. The Bears won 31-24.
So the early message in Big 12 football is clear. Tight games. No idea what will happen.
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Which brings us to Saturday, with both OU and OSU across the Red River for pivotal games. The Sooners at Texas Christian, the Cowboys at Baylor.
Before the season, OSU-Baylor seemed like a showdown game. Winner gets an inside track to Arlington for the Big 12 Championship Game. That hasn’t changed.
In a league this even – no bad teams, potentially no great teams – a 2-0 start would be huge for Baylor. The Bears suffered an overtime loss at Brigham Young (lots of overtimes in the 2022 Big 12), else Baylor would be ranked about sixth nationally.
Of course, OSU winning in Waco would propel the Cowboys to the forefront of the conference race, too. OSU is largely untested, but long gone are the old road troubles that afflicted the Cowboys for years.
Winning on the road is suggested. Three of those four upsets so far in Big 12 play were administered by the visitors (Kansas State, Kansas and Baylor).
OU-TCU didn’t seem like that major of a game. The Sooners generally have their way with the Horned Frogs, losing only once in their 10 Big 12 meetings.
But that was before KSU exposed the OU defense. Mobile quarterback Adrian Martinez ran the Sooners ragged in what was the pinnacle performance of a 4½-year college career.
Now comes another veteran, four-year TCU starter Max Duggan, also quite the runner and also wearing purple.
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K-State provided the blueprint. Get your quarterback out of the pocket, particularly up the middle, and OU linebackers will be hard-pressed to contain. That’s Brent Venables’ chief assignment this week, aligning a defense to minimize the quarterback on runs and scrambles.
The OU offense is fine and will score big. But TCU’s offense has been in high gear, too, under new coach Sonny Dykes. This could be a shootout in the frontier town of Fort Worth.
Meanwhile, in Waco, two programs that built their brand on snazzy uniforms and high-flying offenses meet for the third time in 364 days.
The 2021 meetings were not vintage OSU-Baylor. They were old-fashioned slobberknockers – OSU won 24-14 in Stillwater, Baylor won 21-16 in the Big 12 title game – dominated by defense and the desire to run the ball.
That script has changed some for the Cowboys. Offense is back to carrying OSU, at least until a young defense grows up. The Cowboys are stout up front defensively but a little green in the back seven.
Of course, that’s not where Baylor wants to attack. The Bears are far removed from Art Briles’ spread offenses that terrorized the Big 12 a few years ago. Baylor wants to smash the ball via the run, then try to catch the secondary sleeping with a deep ball.
Two vastly different games, but both wildly interesting.
OU is favored by 6½ points, so the nation is a little leery of the Sooners. Baylor is favored by 2½ points, which means Las Vegas sees the Cowboys and the Bears as virtual equals.
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Berry Tramel's Week 5 college football predictions
Oklahoma State at Baylor: Bears 23-20. Since 2009, OSU has won only once in Waco, in the pandemic year of 2020, when Baylor was playing short-handed.
Oklahoma at Texas Christian: Horned Frogs 34-31. Big 12 upset special. There’s a spirit of upsets in the conference. Until Venables figures out that linebacking problem, the Sooners are in trouble.
Texas Tech at Kansas State: Wildcats 28-13. The winner moves to the top of the conference, since it will have this notch on its belt, plus the victory from last week over either Texas or OU.
Iowa State at Kansas: Cyclones 31-30. If KU wins this game and gets to 5-0, it’s time to declare 2022 the greatest athletic year in Jayhawk history. An NCAA basketball championship, coupled with the story of the year on the gridiron.
West Virginia at Texas: Longhorns 41-29. I have no idea what to make of the Mountaineers, but I know they can score. I really have no idea what to make of the Longhorns. Now or ever.
Kentucky at Ole Miss: Rebels 26-17. Big showdown against apparently good and absolutely unbeaten teams. Alas, neither has much of a chance to win their division, with King Kong (Alabama) and Godzilla (Georgia) residing in the Southeastern Conference.
Alabama at Arkansas: Crimson Tide 33-20. What a hill & holler festival was going to be staged in Fayetteville, until the Razorbacks gave away their game against Texas A&M.
Texas A&M at Mississippi State: Aggies 21-20. All Aggie jokes aside, give A&M credit for scratching its way to 3-1. Could have lost to Miami but didn’t. Should have lost to Arkansas but didn’t.
Georgia at Missouri: Bulldogs 39-7. Few teams have given away a game like Mizzou did at Auburn.
Louisiana State at Auburn: Bayou Bengals 30-13. Beating Missouri might have saved Bryan Harsin’s job. This week.
Eastern Washington at Florida: Gators 45-20. Game moved to Sunday due to Hurricane Ian. I’m all for a good college game to go up against the National Football League. Alas, this isn’t a good college game.
South Carolina State at South Carolina: Gamecocks 49-7. Game moved to Thursday night due to the hurricane. Spencer Rattler is the only reason to watch.
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Michigan at Iowa: Wolverines 26-7. Despite all the Hawkeye jokes, this could be a good game. Iowa’s defense has allowed just two touchdowns through four games.
Illinois at Wisconsin: Illini 24-19. Upset special. Illinois’ Bret Bielema makes his first return to Madison, where he coached the Badgers to a 68-24 record from 2006-12.
Indiana at Nebraska: Hoosiers 27-20. The Cornhuskers somehow are favored, but I’ve seen Nebraska play live, and I’ve seen good chunks of two IU games, against Illinois and Cincinnati, and I swear, Indiana is the better team.
Michigan State at Maryland: Terrapins 28-20. The Spartans got as high as No. 5 in The Associated Press poll last season and finished No. 9. But Mel Tucker’s magic is gone.
Purdue at Minnesota: Gophers 33-17. Minnesota seems on a collision course with the Big Ten Championship Game. The Gophers don’t play Michigan or Ohio State.
Northwestern at Penn State: Nittany Lions 38-7. What happened to the Wildcats? Pat Fitzgerald’s remarkable career included a record of 106-81 through 2020. But Northwestern fell to 3-9 a year ago, and after beating Nebraska in Dublin, the 2022 Wildcats have lost to Duke, Southern Illinois and Miami-Ohio.
Rutgers at Ohio State: Buckeyes 56-6. A very good argument against conference expansion.
Washington at UCLA: Bruins 34-30. Wow, what a Friday night showdown. The Huskies seem for real, and we’re about to find out about UCLA.
Oregon State at Utah: Utes 31-24. The Beavers are licking their wounds from letting Southern Cal off the hook in Corvallis last week.
California at Washington State: Golden Bears 27-21. Here’s betting WSU will suffer from an Oregon hangover. The Cougars led the Ducks 34-22 with less than four minutes left in the game but somehow lost 44-41.
Southern Cal at Arizona State: Trojans 38-13. Here’s an idea for the ASU coaching job – Arizona Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury, who could be on his way out in Phoenix.
Stanford at Oregon: Ducks 41-11. Time was, this was the showdown game of Pac-12 football. Not anymore.
Colorado at Arizona: Wildcats 27-16. The Pac-12's best teams are just as good as the Big 12’s best teams. But the Big 12 has no bad teams, not this year anyway, while the Pac-12 is full of them. Starting with these two.
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Wake Forest at Florida State: Seminoles 41-31. Florida State has North Carolina State and Clemson the next two weeks, so the ’Noles had best take care of Wake.
North Carolina State at Clemson: Wolfpack 38-28. These teams won’t rematch in the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game. They’re in the same division, the Atlantic, which is by far the league’s superior side.
Virginia Tech at North Carolina: Tar Heels 41-33. Carolina’s defense is so bad, it made Notre Dame’s offense look halfway decent.
Louisville at Boston College: Cardinals 37-17. Louisville is 2-2 and is in the wrong division. Put the Cardinals in the ACC Coastal, and they would win a bunch of games.
Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh: Panthers 42-12. I made the Yellow Jackets’ Geoff Collins my coach on the hot seat last week. Just in the nick of time. He got fired Sunday.
Virginia at Duke: Cavaliers 21-19. I was not impressed with new Virginia coach Tony Elliott, who was reeming out his kicker last week at Syracuse, apparently for a couple of missed field goals. You can yell at a linebacker with no major repercussions, but don’t go yelling at a kicker. You need his psyche in the right place.
Wagner at Syracuse: Orange 55-7. Syracuse doesn’t get to play that many in-state foes. Wagner, of course, is the pride of Staten Island.
Cincinnati at Tulsa: Bearcats 32-28. TU played tough at Ole Miss, losing 35-27. Speaking of playing tough, Cincinnati has been ranked in the top 25 each of the last three years when playing the Golden Hurricane, and UC’s victories were 28-20, 27-24 and 24-13. Expect a close game.
Southern Methodist at Central Florida: Mustangs 42-32. UCF has the Big 12 slot that SMU wanted. There will be motivation galore coming to Orlando.
Tulane at Houston: Green Wave 21-16. The Cougars spent all game fiddling around with Rice. I’m telling you, there are problems in Dana Holgorsen’s program.
Navy at Air Force: Falcons 26-15. What a joy it would be to be in Colorado Springs and watch these teams play old-fashioned football on a beautiful October day.
Temple at Memphis: Tigers 31-13. Memphis is sneaky good. The Tigers don’t play Cincinnati in the regular season, but that could be the American Conference title game matchup.
East Carolina at South Florida: Pirates 35-25. I can’t figure out the Bulls. USF was routed 50-21 by BYU and 41-3 at Louisville, but played Florida within 31-28.
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Utah State at Brigham Young: Cougars 45-6. Sadly, this 90-game rivalry ends this year. BYU has stopped the series. What are we doing to the sport?
San Diego State at Boise State: Aztecs 23-6. Dirk Koetter, the pride of Pocatello, Idaho, is back as the Boise State offensive coordinator. Koetter was the Boise State head coach from 1998-2000; he famously jilted OSU to go to Arizona State instead. Koetter has had a good career – he was head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2016-18. Boise State coach Andy Avalos hired Koetter in the off-season to be an analyst, and Avalos fired his offensive coordinator, Tim Plough, Sunday after the Broncos’ meager start.
San Jose State at Wyoming: Cowboys 26-16. Wyoming has college football’s most unique uniform color combination. Brown and yellow.
New Mexico at Nevada-Las Vegas: Rebels 34-22. UNLV has had 11 winning seasons in 45 years of major-college football and only seven winning conference records in 41 years of league play in the Mountain West, Big West, Western Athletic and Pacific Coast conferences. But if the Rebels beat the Lobos, they move to 2-0 in the Mountain West, and with the conference down this season, the Rebels could make a run at the title.
Fresno State at Connecticut: Bulldogs 48-14. This seems like an awfully long way to go for a really bad game.
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina: Chanticleers 35-30. Georgia Southern, which beat Nebraska, is 3-1 but about to start Sun Belt play. The Eagles will play at least four Sun Belt teams better than the Cornhuskers. Maybe more.
Liberty at Old Dominion: Flames 28-27. Man, there are a lot of good matchups among southern mid-majors.
Georgia State at Army: Cadets 25-24. Army beat Villanova last week without completing a pass. The Cadets threw just one.
Texas State at James Madison: Dukes 44-10. James Madison has hit Division I-A like a comet, with a 3-0 record and a rousing upset at Appalachian State.
South Alabama at Louisiana-Lafayette: Jaguars 37-14. South Alabama has found its stride, with a 3-1 record that includes a one-point loss at UCLA. The Jags beat Central Michigan by the same 14-point margin as OSU. The Cowboys host South Alabama next September.
Last week: 45-14. Season: 214-56.
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Thunder roster narrowing down
Vit Krejci came through the interview room Monday at Thunder Media Day and was asked the obligatory questions by the dutiful press corps.
How he was doing physically. How he enjoyed playing for the Czech Republic over the summer.
And then Krejci was asked the magic question. The Thunder has more players under contract than NBA roster rules allow. How does that impact players in training camp, knowing their job is not secure?
“Yeah, I don't think anybody is really thinking about it,” Krejci said. “We're just coming into the arena or into the practice facility and just work as hard as possible. Nobody is thinking about what's going to happen next week.”
Forget next week. By Tuesday night, Krejci was gone. The Thunder traded the 6-foot-8 wing to the Atlanta Hawks for Moe Harkless and a 2029 second-round draft pick.
The trade gives the Hawks a little payroll relief, helping them stay below the luxury tax, and gives OKC a draft pick. Harkless is expected be bought out of his contract, which is in its final year and pays him $4.5 million?
Heck, the trade probably helps Krejci. He likely was going to be cut. The Thunder entered training camp with 18 players on standard contracts. That’s three over the limit.
But veteran guard Ty Jerome has been excused from training camp, and the Thunder is working to trade him. If Harkless is bought out, that leaves 16 players for 15 slots.
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That means the final roster decision is expected to come down to third-year point guard Theo Maledon and veteran center Derrick Favors, with Maledon the likely loser.
“I don't think we pay attention to that,” Maledon said of the tight roster in training camp. “I'm just going out here and trying to compete as much as possible, get better as a team and individually, and whatever happens happens. But just trying to not put my mind into that and just go out here and compete.”
Maledon averaged 10.1 points a game as a rookie and literally led the injury-marred Thunder in minutes played. Maledon’s playing time and 3-point percentage fell in 2021-22, leading to the idea that he was less effective.
But that’s not necessarily true. Most advanced statistics show Maledon’s production about the same as Year 1, just with less playing time.
All of which makes training camp huge for Maledon. It’s his last best chance to show the Thunder he belongs.
Second-year wing Aaron Wiggins seems assured of a roster spot, though you never know.
“It's got to be competitive,” Wiggins said of training camp. “Guys are going to be really gritty, really aggressive to kind of prove themselves. Everybody has something to prove.
“I think it calls for a very competitive training camp. It'll be a fun one. It'll be one where we all kind of get to test one another and see where we stand and how we can fit in. It'll definitely be something that a lot of the guys are looking forward to.”
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Boise State shows college football loyalty is gone
The professionalization of college football continues, and it’s manifested in what once was considered a feel-good corner of the sport.
Boise, Idaho.
Boise State and its blue field/blue collar identity personified the can-do spirit. Boise State went from a junior college in the late 1960s to beating OU in the Fiesta Bowl on the first day of 2007.
The Broncos were the little engine that could, periodically standing up to the big boys in a big-boy sport.
But the charm is coming off Boise State.
The Broncos slipped a little, not much, after revered coach Chris Petersen left for Washington. Bryan Harsin went 69-19 in seven seasons (2014-20) before taking the Auburn job (what was he thinking?)
New Boise State coach Andy Avalos, a Bronco alum, has struggled to a 9-7 record, including a dispiriting 27-10 loss at Texas-El Paso last Friday.
Avalos on Saturday fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough. Then Monday, four-year starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier said he had entered the transfer portal and would be leaving the team.
The craziness of college football has made its way to Boise.
The mid-season firing of head coaches and coordinators is becoming quite common. The quit-the-team-after-four-games has become a fad only in the last few years, when the NCAA passed a new redshirt rule that allows players to retain a season of eligibility if they play in no more than four games.
The latter, of course, is a prime example of unintended consequences. The rule was passed to benefit players who had been injured and to give seldom-used players a bit more playing time.
Now it’s being used by players to bail on a poor start to a season. Houston quarterback D’Eriq King left the Cougars four games into the 2019 season, under the guise of redshirting and returning to UofH, but eventually transferred to Miami. OSU receiver Jalen McCleskey played four games for the 2018 Cowboys, then left the team and transferred to Tulane.
As a freshman, Bachmeier quarterbacked Boise State in eight games of their 12-2 season in 2019. He’s been a solid QB, but nothing spectacular, with career numbers of 61.5 completion percentage, 41 touchdowns and 19 interceptions.
When your four-year quarterback bails, it says something about the culture of the program. And it says something about the quarterback. With leaders like Bachmeier, who needs malcontents?
But Bachmeier came by it honest. His original coach, Harsin, left for Auburn. Bachmeier’s second-year offensive coordinator, Plough, was fired four games into the season.
It’s every man for himself in college football. That’s a lesson the players learned last, but they are learning it fast.
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The List: OSU’s NFL running backs
OSU will be forever known as the home of Barry Sanders and Thurman Thomas, two of the greatest tailbacks in National Football League history.
But the Cowboys have long been sending running backs to the NFL, a tradition that remains today, with three OSU tailbacks on pro rosters this season – Carolina's Chuba Hubbard, Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Warren and Baltimore’s Justice Hill, and that’s not counting the just-retired Chris Carson.
Here are the 10 greatest NFL running backs from OSU. You know the top two:
1. Barry Sanders: Ranks behind only Jim Brown as the greatest running back in NFL history.
2. Thurman Thomas: So good, he kept Sanders largely on the bench for two seasons, then became a Pro Football Hall of Famer.
3. Walt Garrison: Tough fullback on Tom Landry’s grand old Dallas Cowboy teams from 1966-74, with 3,886 rushing yards.
4. Chris Carson: Somewhat overlooked playing in Seattle, but Carson ran for more than 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons, 2018 and 2019, and finished with 3,502 yards.
5. Tatum Bell: Bell busted the 1,000-yard barrier in 2006 and finished with 2,773 yards in five Denver seasons.
6. Terry Miller: Rushed for 1,060 yards as a 1978 Buffalo rookie. He played four NFL seasons.
7. Kendall Hunter: Played four seasons, three with the 49ers (2011-13), and finished with 1,204 rushing yards.
8 Vernand Morency: Three-year backup with the Texans and Packers (2005-07), gained 726 yards.
9. Joe Randle: Three-year backup to DeMarco Murray or Darren McFadden in Dallas (2013-15), Randle gained 822 NFL yards.
10. Chuba Hubbard: Solid rookie season with the Panthers in 2021, gaining 612 yards on 172 carries. He backs up Christian McCaffrey.
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Mailbag: Big 12 change
The demise of the original Big 12 Conference remains a hot-button topic for some readers. A league that was the equivalent of the SEC 15 years ago soon enters a new era in which it figures to be not only competitively inferior to the SEC and Big Ten, but financially.
Some wonder why.
Jim Bob: “Back 10-12 years ago, when Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and A&M left the conference to where we are today, what do you think is the biggest factor that brought the Big 12 down? Can we blame it all on Texas and their network?”
Tramel: No. The Longhorn Network is a symptom, not the disease.
The Big 12’s foundation was shaky from the start. The inequitable financial distribution created distrust and resentment from the outset of the league. And didn’t create contentment.
The big-money schools – OU, Texas, Nebraska and A&M – voted together on most financial issues, when at least nine votes were needed for change.
Big 12 commissioner Kevin Weiberg tried to institute a conference network, realized the futility and moved to the Big Ten for the same mission. The Big Ten Network thrives today.
Like most such powerbrokering, infighting ensued among the big boys. Particularly Nebraska and Texas.
Then came Bevo TV, which alarmed A&M and made the Aggies think about going elsewhere. The Huskers were worried about maintaining financial supremacy, didn’t like the Big 12 culture and had lost the OU-Nebraska game as an annual rivalry. Nothing much kept Nebraska tied to the conference. So off to the Big Ten went the Huskers.
That left OU and Texas lording over the Big 12, but that insatiable desire for more money was deeply-seeded and never-ending. Hello, SEC.
The Longhorn Network was but a small part of the script.
Berry Tramel: Berry can be reached at 405-760-8080 or at btramel@oklahoman.com. He can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including FM-98.1. Support his work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Big 12 football predictions: OU, OSU could be in trouble in Week 5
