Tramel's ScissorTales: Why did College Football Playoff committee rank Michigan ahead of Michigan State?
The College Football Playoff committee revealed its second rankings of the season, and the only real drama Tuesday night was the committee ranking Michigan sixth and Michigan State seventh, literally 10 days after Michigan State beat Michigan 37-33.
In his weekly press conference, committee chairman Gary Barta tried to explain the rationale for placing Michigan over Michigan State. Here is the transcript of his press conference, with my responses, though I omitted the two OU and OSU questions, which I addressed in the Wednesday ScissorTales.
Q. Could you kind of talk a little bit more in detail about the decision from 2 to 7, I guess? Obviously none of those teams won impressively last week. As you said, is that why nobody really made that jump?
Barta: “Yeah, I called it a logjam. When you look at 2 through 7, really 2 through 6, the committee goes through each team and talks about if anything changed from last week, their strengths, their weaknesses. As you mentioned, they all won, but nobody separated themselves in that group. Nobody reached out and tried to push themselves ahead. That's how it ended up 2 through 6, and then I think your question has to do with Michigan State. Were you asking how they ended up at 7, or was that --”
Tramel: Before we finish the exchange, Barta revealed an important distinction. The committee believes there’s a gulf between No. 6 Michigan and No. 7 Michigan State. He basically said so.
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Q. Well, I am curious in terms of the head-to-head thing. I know obviously nothing happens in a vacuum, but Oregon beat Ohio State; they're ahead of Ohio State. Michigan State beat Michigan but they're behind Michigan. Can you explain that?
Barta: "Well, the explanation that I'll give in general is, first, head-to-head it certainly one of the criteria we look at. We look at wins, losses, we look at strength of schedule. We look at common opponents, et cetera. I think you know there's several criteria, and then there's 13 members who are watching every game and evaluating. The Michigan-Michigan State discussion really started last week, and I would just kind of summarize that the committee went back and forth, and really consensus was that Michigan probably is a more complete team. Statistically offensively, defensively, they're ranked higher than Michigan State in just about every category. That being said, the committee gave great credence to the Michigan State win head-to-head against Michigan. That discussion went back and forth last week. This week the same discussion goes on. What's changed? Michigan won and Michigan State lost. So for this week, we slotted Michigan State at 7. As we come back next week, each of those discussions will happen again and we'll have another data point to look at.
Tramel: I’ve been asking this for seven years. Why is the committee looking at statistics? I’m not even crazy about the eye test. All this video watching of games. Why do you need to watch games? We have a mechanism for determining football superiority; it’s called a scoreboard. We have a scoring system that determines winners and losers, and if that’s not sufficient, then perhaps we need to change the scoring system. Same with statistical analysis. That’s fantastic for predicting future results or why games were won and lost. But as some kind of additive, some kind of extra result, which lessens the scoreboard? No. That’s bogus.
Q. Earlier with regards to the Michigan and Michigan State discussion, you said the committee felt that Michigan was probably the more complete team. I was wondering how the game between those two schools went into that decision, the game a couple weeks ago between the two.
Barta: “Well, in the end, while there was a lot of discussion about looking at watching the teams play, looking at the statistics, looking at the way that Michigan is ranked statistically in offense and defense, all of that was part of the discussion. But at the end of the day, last week Michigan State beat Michigan, and the committee felt that that meant they should be ranked ahead of Michigan. This past week, the same discussions occurred, and it went back to the feeling or the sense of the group in watching the games, watching the teams play that Michigan just looks to have a more complete team on both sides of the ball, still giving credit for Michigan State for winning head-to-head, but Michigan won this past week, Michigan State lost, and so for this week, the committee put Michigan at 6, Michigan State at 7, and I'm guessing that debate will continue depending on how both those teams do going forward.”
Tramel: Well, I'd hope to shout it continues going forward. Michigan “looks” to have the more complete team? Does that mean that Ohio State does not look to have the more complete team over Oregon, which beat the Buckeyes and is ranked ahead of Ohio State? Look, I know head-to-head isn’t the be-all end-all of team discussions. But the committee’s parameters say head-to-head should be a primary consideration when the teams are considered close, and how could the committee argue that Michigan State and Michigan are not close?
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Q. Kind of following up on this discussion about the performances overcoming head-to-head results, can you provide some transparency to the performance metrics or better play on both sides of the ball that have Oregon still ahead of Ohio State at this point of the season?
Barta: “Well, the back-and-forth, looking at the win that Oregon has, the Ohio State win, they also beat Fresno, they won at UCLA, the play of their quarterback, they won at Washington in a really bad weather situation. You look at Ohio State, they have nice wins at Minnesota and Penn State, beat Maryland. They're playing really well offensively. Nebraska is a tough place to win at. But as the committee stopped and had that conversation back and forth, both teams won this weekend, and neither team separated themselves. Last week the difference maker for the committee was the Oregon win at Ohio State, and I would just suggest that since nothing really changed in the committee's eyes since last week, both teams won, both teams were on the road, Oregon maybe shined a little bit more, but at the end of the day Oregon ahead of Ohio State this week. That doesn't mean that that criteria would be the same the rest of the year. It depends on next week. We'll do it all over again.”
Tramel: I can’t argue anything about Ohio State-Oregon. Remember, the Ducks won in Columbus. Heck, a far better defense for the committee of ranking Michigan ahead of Michigan State would be to point out that the game was played in East Lansing. To me, site of the game is a lot more relevant than some kind of statistical analysis. Nebraska’s stats don’t look awful. Rank the 3-7 Huskers.
Q. My question has to do with Notre Dame. Obviously Oklahoma is between Notre Dame and the Michigan schools; how close is Notre Dame to the Michigan schools, and maybe if they showed improvement as an overall team to their statistical profile, will that help them down the stretch, even with a less-than-challenging schedule?
Barta: “Well, the starting point is when we've had these conversations, I mentioned having the conversation between Michigan and Michigan State. What generally happens, we don't have that just between those two. I know we had conversations that grouped everything from Michigan down to Oklahoma State, and we talked about, we compared all of those teams against each other with all the statistics we look at and we break it down. The long answer to your question, and then I'll try to shorten it up, is Notre Dame is right there with those groups. They're 8-1, they had nice wins at Wisconsin and Purdue. To your last point, keep winning, obviously, for any of these teams, and maybe the strength of schedule provides some more opportunities moving forward for some of those other schools, but like anything else, if Notre Dame just keeps winning, we'll have to see what happens with Oklahoma, Michigan State, Michigan that are above them.
Tramel: Keep an eye on the Fighting Irish. They indeed could rise, since their schedule was front-loaded. The game at Virginia on Saturday won’t be easy, but the rest of the schedule is Georgia Tech and Stanford. Barta’s answer was quite insightful, because he let loose the clue that No. 10 OSU is considered well above No. 11 Texas A&M. The committee discusses teams in clusters. Two through seven, six through 10, that kind of stuff. And the Cowboys are in the cluster with Michigan, Michigan State, OU and Notre Dame.
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Q. You referenced the discussion that took place last week between Michigan and Michigan State; was there some discussion in the room last week or people in the room who thought that Michigan should be ranked ahead of Michigan State last week immediately after Michigan State beat Michigan on the field?
Barta: “I'm not willing to go there. What I was saying is there was and continues to be discussion that Michigan in the opinion of the committee is a more complete team. That's the dialogue that we had last week, and it continued this week. But I don't remember every part of the discussion last week other than to say that Michigan State got the respect and the nod for the win head-to-head over Michigan.”
Tramel: And there’s the flaw in the whole system. There should have been no discussion last week about the Wolverines being a more complete. Who knows what that even means? Who cares what that even means? Michigan State and Michigan were undefeated, and in the second half of the season, the Spartans beat the Wolverines. There’s no reason for debate on who gets ranked higher. This week, OK, you can debate it. Michigan State lost to Purdue. But last week, that’s an example of the committee’s Godlike complex.
Q. I was just wondering how much over the past two weeks you guys have talked about Penn State if at all because they have some wins over some of your top 25 teams but they haven't been ranked. I guess why, is my question.
Barta: “Yeah, I'd say this week we talked about them more than a week ago, and we talked about them a week ago. They're in the conversation. The committee sees them as a very good team, a tough team to play. When we talk about somebody beating Penn State, it's seen as a good win. Like most of the times when we have these conversations, when you compare them -- I'll look at No. 25 this week who's Arkansas. They have a win over Texas A&M and they beat Mississippi State. So are they in the discussion? Yes. They haven't made it to the top 25, but very good football team.”
Tramel: I don’t understand why Penn State isn’t ranked. The Nittany Lions beat Wisconsin and Auburn. Lost to Ohio State, Iowa and Illinois. The latter was inexcusable, but still. Auburn has the same record, 6-3, and is ranked 17th. I mean, I don’t care about the bottom half of the top 25, but if you’re going to rank teams, rank them correctly.
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Q. I was just curious if head-to-head should be applied consistently if you're comparing multiple sets of team A versus team B and C versus D in the same set of rankings. Does the committee believe that it should be viewed the same when you're comparing different teams?
Barta: “Well, what the committee does is we take every piece of information we have available, and so we look at the record. I know I'm being a little redundant. We look at common opponents, we look at head-to-head, we look at strength of defense versus offense. Thirteen people watch the games. We're watching the games all week long, and so that's the subjectivity part of it, but by design there's subjectivity by people who are watching all the games. It's considered in every case. That doesn't mean in every case head-to-head is going to put one team over another. This is my third year on the committee, and I can tell you that I know numerous examples where head-to-head is overcome by other things, and in this ranking alone this week, it's no different.”
Tramel: In Barta’s defense, the committee does override head-to-head. Auburn-Penn State is an example.
Q. Just to balance that, so the committee head-to-head deciding factor for two teams but not the others in the same rankings? The committee is fine with head-to-head as a determining factor for a couple of teams in their ranking but is decided not to be the deciding factor or the separator for other teams in the same set of rankings?
Barta: “It's considered in all ranking discussions. It's not the sole data point that we use. For example, if someone has one loss, we don't automatically say that the undefeated team is ahead of the one loss. Same thing with head-to-head. It's considered. It's looked at, but it isn't the only piece of information that we make the final decision upon.
Tramel: I give Barta a lot of credit. He has decent patience with repetitive questions.
Kevin Durant returns to OKC Sunday night
The Thunder hosts the Brooklyn Netropolitans on Sunday night. You know what that means. Kevin Durant.
Durant has played in Oklahoma City only thrice in the 5½ years since announcing on July 4, 2016, that he would leave the Thunder to sign with the Golden State Warriors.
All three games in downtown OKC were played within a span of 14 months: February 11, 2017; November 22, 2017; April 4, 2018.
Injuries have kept Durant out of the lineup each of the previous three seasons when his team — the Warriors in 2018-19, the Nets in 2019-20 and 2020-21 — played at the Thunder.
So it has been awhile. Whenever we’ve discussed Durant’s return or even potential return, we’ve focused on the reception. How the fans will treat their once-hero, now arch-villain. The answer, of course, is poorly, though the rancor certainly has lessened since that wince-fest back in February 2017.
But maybe it’s time to focus not on the reception, but what kind of player Durant is these days.
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He left Oklahoma City a 27-year-old superstar in his prime. He returns a 33-year-old superstar who is better than ever.
I know it’s hard to believe. But it’s true. About 2½ years after suffering a torn Achilles, Durant has returned to full health. And full lethalness as a seminal player in NBA history.
Durant is averaging 29.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game. He’s shooting 58.5 percent from the field, including 40.4 percent from 3-point range. All are above his career averages, and the field-goal percentage and rebounds are career highs.
He’s a 6-foot-11 wing man who can dribble and post up and finish and swish from deep. There’s really not anything like him in NBA history.
It’s what we saw from 2008-16, those glorious eight seasons when Durant was part of Boomtown, making Loud City roar, only now Durant has the advantage of a veteran’s nuances and savvy play.
Make no mistake. We saw Durant in all his glory. Using basketball-reference.com’s GameScore metric as a guide, 14 of Durant’s 20 best individual games came with the Thunder. That’s 70 percent. Only 62.6 percent of his NBA games came with OKC.
So we got our fair share of Durant. It’s just that at the advanced age of 33, he’s still playing not just at the highest level of contemporary NBA ball, but at the highest level the NBA has ever seen.
Durant is in the Eastern Conference now. Maybe he’ll stay there, though who knows? If Durant does stay, that means no more than one trip a year to OKC. He won’t be passing this way many more times.
I don’t know how that makes you feel. Feel however you want to.
Just know that while Durant on the court always was something special, Durant on the court today remains so.
Big 12 Pregame: Could 9 teams be bowl eligible?
In 2012, the first year of the current Big 12 configuration, the conference remarkably had nine teams become bowl eligible, with at least six regular-season victories.
And all nine teams played in a bowl.
Now comes 2021, in what could be the final year of the current Big 12 configuration, and it’s possible that nine teams again could become bowl eligible.
Five teams have made it so far – 9-0 OU, 8-1 OSU, 7-2 Baylor, 6-3 Iowa State and 6-3 Kansas State.
Texas Tech is 5-4 but will be an underdog in its final three games – home against Iowa State, home against OSU, at Baylor. The Red Raiders will need to spring an upset to get there.
Texas is 4-5 and hosts hapless Kansas on Saturday. So the Longhorns figure to need to win either at West Virginia or home against K-State to reach 6-6.
West Virginia is 4-5 and plays at Kansas State on Saturday before hosting Texas, then playing at KU. So the Mountaineers figure to need a win over KSU or Texas to reach 6-6.
Texas Christian 4-5 and plays at OSU on Saturday night before hosting Kansas, then playing at Iowa State.
So assuming victories over Kansas, the Big 12 has four teams that need one extra win to get bowl eligible. Texas and West Virginia play each other, which should elevate the winner to bowl eligibility and require the loser to beat Kansas State to achieve that status.
TCU and Tech need an even bigger upset to reach six wins.
Not easy, but doable.
With the glut of bowl games, a variety of 5-7 teams have been allowed to go bowling in recent years, and some likely will be needed this year.
There are 41 Division I-A bowls, so 82 teams are required to fill the slots. Currently, 79 teams have at least five wins. That seems like a good estimate on bowl eligibility. Sure, some 5-4 teams could lose three straight. Some 4-5 teams could win at least twice and get to six.
But three isn’t a bad estimate on how many 5-7 teams could be invited to a bowl.
Still, you’d much rather go through the front door to a bowl game. The Big 12 conceivably could qualify nine teams that reached at least 6-6.
Upset special: Central Florida over SMU
Gus Malzahn’s first season coaching UCF hasn’t gone splendidly. The Knights knocked off Boise State to open the season but lost close games to Louisville and Navy, then were routed by Cincinnati.
Along the way, UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel suffered a broken clavicle.
But Knights quarterback Mikey Keene has played better in recent weeks. And Saturday, UCF plays at Southern Methodist, which was riding high until back-to-back losses the last two weeks, against Houston and Memphis.
The 6-3 Knights are seven-point underdogs at SMU, but let’s go with Central Florida in the upset.
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Coach on the hot seat: Lincoln Riley
Riley is not under pressure from anyone in Oklahoma. Except himself. Riley has created a monster.
Riley’s November success is the stuff of legend. Since arriving at OU as offensive coordinator in 2015, then taking over as head coach in 2017, the Sooners are 21-0 in November. Amazingly, 11 of those 21 wins have come against teams ranked in the top 25.
Now comes another November, and more ranked foes. The 9-0 Sooners play No. 13 Baylor on Saturday, followed by Iowa State in Norman, then a Bedlam showdown in Stillwater against now-No. 10 OSU.
And November victory has become automatic in Soonerland.
2021 has been a tumultuous season for OU. Lots of close calls. A quarterback change. Through it all, everyone assumed a successful November, because that’s what Riley always has produced. He’s expected to produce it again.
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1. Oklahoma at Baylor, 11 a.m. Saturday, Fox: The Sooners have won eight straight road games against top-25 conference opponents. That’s one shy of the national record.
2. Texas Christian at Oklahoma State, 7 p.m. Saturday, Fox: The Cowboys will not miss deposed Horned Frog coach Gary Patterson. TCU has beaten OSU three of the last four years, twice with the Cowboys ranked higher.
3. Cincinnati at South Florida, 5 p.m. Friday, ESPN2: Virtual matinee game gives the fifth-ranked Bearcats the national stage. That’s not necessarily a good thing.
4. West Virginia at Kansas State, 11 a.m. Saturday, Fox Sports1: Strange series. The Wildcats won the first four games in the series after West Virginia joined the Big 12; the Mountaineers have won all five games since.
5. Central Florida at SMU, 11 a.m. Saturday, ESPNU: Sudden thought. If UCF wins with Malzahn, will he look for greener pastures, or will Big 12 status make Orlando a place to set down roots?
6. Iowa State at Texas Tech, 2:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN2: ISU has scored at least 31 points eight straight games against the Red Raiders.
7. Kansas at Texas, 6:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPNU: Hey, why isn’t this game on The Longhorn Network? Isn’t that a tradition? Has the phase-out of Bevo TV begun?
8. Houston at Temple, 11 a.m. Saturday, ESPN Plus: The idea that the American Conference was some kind of threat to join a “Power 6” was silly when you think about the Owls playing in a National Football League stadium, in front of 5,000 fans.
Tramel: War hero Byron Bird showed generations of OSU athletes what it meant to be tough
Mailbag: Byron Bird
For the Thursday Oklahoman, I wrote about the late Byron Bird, a World War II hero who cut off his own leg to survive in the Pacific Theater, then spent more than 30 years in the OSU athletic department as an athletic trainer. As you’d expect, I received much correspondence about Bird. Here is the best story.
Paul: “I am an 82-year-old codger who has never written a comment back to a newspaper person. Not because I don’t enjoy reading; it is my main pastime. It’s because writing is the worst of a long list of subpar skill sets, I have learned to live with. Your article on Byron Bird has forced me to cross that line.
“Some background on myself and my connection to Byron Bird. I am also from Heavener and grew up with no desire except to hunt and fish. I thought the best job in town belonged to the forest ranger who was stationed in Heavener. Then I found out you had to go to college to be eligible for that job. Without forethought to the finances and even less at being college academically qualified, my English teacher, who was also the forest ranger’s wife suggested, with good reason, it might be a better idea to buy a chainsaw and cut pulp wood.
“In the fall of 1957, I stumbled into Oklahoma A&M. After almost a semester, an empty bank account and a bare 2.0 GPA, I was ready to go cut pulp wood. Then I had a phone call from Byron Bird asking me to meet him on the steps of what was then Gallagher Hall. I did not know Mr. Bird, but my uncle had played football with him in Heavener, and my father (older than my uncle) lost a leg in his early ‘20s, so there were indirect connections.
“Mr. Bird offered me a job in the training room. Then it was equivalent to a full scholarship, room/board books and tuition. For the next four years, Byron Bird provided me with the means and directional guidance that allowed me to graduate. I learned more about life in my job than in the classroom. I took my first out-of-state trip (if you don’t count a few day-shopping trips to Fort Smith), first airplane flight and lot of other firsts in that timeframe.
“I learned more about Mr. Bird’s military experiences from your article than I ever knew. He never once talked about it. He did tutor me on numerous other subjects though. He once told me, ‘Your word is the most valuable asset you own, never spend it frivolously.’
“After the last football game of 1961 (1962), we were arriving back to Gallagher Hall when Byron told me that Coach Cliff Speegle knew this would be his last game at OSU. He told me I needed to go shake Coach Speegle’s hand and thank him for all he had done for me. A simple but needed task that I would have never done without his guidance.
“Your article was superb, extremely accurate and much appreciated.
“Respectfully,
“Col. Paul Johnston, USMC Ret.”
Tramel: Not all mailbags require a response. So I won’t say anything but thank you to the Colonel. Thank you and rebut the idea that you don’t write well. But I will talk to the rest of us. You never know what kind of impact you can make on a life.
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Venue ventures: McLane Stadium
College football stadiums by nature are venerable if not stately. Many were built upwards of 100 years ago. Most have been renovated, and some have been completely rebuilt.
OSU’s Boone Pickens Stadium, Texas Christian’s Amon Carter Stadium and Texas Tech’s Jones Stadium are among the examples. Others, like OU and Texas, have been massively refurbished.
But few are the stadiums built from scratch, even to the point of being built on a completely different parcel of ground from the previous stadium.
All of which makes Baylor’s McLane Stadium one of college football’s great new cathedrals.
The Sooners play at McLane on Saturday, and it’s OU’s fourth trip to Waco since Baylor opened its new stadium in 2014.
McLane Stadium is named for Baylor benefactor Drayton McLane Jr., who provided the major gift for the $266 million stadium.
McLane Stadium is not even on the same side of Interstate 35 as Baylor’s former home, Floyd Casey Stadium. Floyd Casey was off campus, in a nondescript commercial district maybe a mile west of I-35. McLane Stadium is on campus, with a glorious setting, maybe 100 yards east of I-35 and sitting on the north bank of the Brazos River.
McLane Stadium has a futuristic feel, as opposed to the more classic look at TCU. McLane Stadium has a capacity of 45,140, with the possibility of future expansion up to 55,000.
Maybe that capacity feels small, but it’s actually a perfect size. Baylor’s fan base is not huge, in the realm of OU or Texas, and McLane often is either full or close to it, creating a great atmosphere for Baylor home games.
McLane Stadium has hosted concerts and church gatherings and social events. The Baylor Club is a dining and event space on the stadium’s west side, which features a ballroom with floor-to-ceiling windows overlooking the field and panoramic views of the Brazos River and Waco.
The river provides a great setting and sets up Baylor for sailgating – fans can arrive at games via boat, like they do at Tennessee and Washington and Pitt – in a cove adjacent to the stadium.
McLane Stadium is a monument to Baylor’s commitment to football, just like Boone Pickens Stadium is in Stillwater. Waco once was a dreary place to watch college football. No more.
Berry Tramel: Berry can be reached at 405-760-8080 or at btramel@oklahoman.com. He can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including FM-98.1. Support his work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Why did College Football Playoff rank Michigan over Michigan State?
