This trend has dominated Kentucky Derbies for a decade. Keep it in mind when you bet.

In a race with 20 horses, just about anything can happen.

That’s certainly been the case over the long history of the Kentucky Derby, which will be run for the 147th time Saturday at Churchill Downs and has seen plenty of upsets — both mild and extreme — over the past century and a half.

All that potential for uncertainty makes one recent trend all the more interesting.

In each of the past 10 Kentucky Derbies, the horse that crossed the finish line first has come into the race off of a victory.

That might seem like a no-brainer. Of course the Kentucky Derby winner is most likely to be a horse coming in off a win, right? Well, wrong.

In the 10 years before this trend began, only four Derby winners had won their final prep race. In the seven Derbys from 1992 to 1998, not a single Derby champ came into the race off a victory. That’s a list that includes the likes of Real Quiet, Silver Charm and Thunder Gulch.

From 1980 to 2010, a total of 19 eventual Derby winners were coming into the race off a loss.

Maybe a last-time loser is due for a victory in Saturday’s Derby. Or maybe some more recent changes in the Derby prep season have led to this current trend. The introduction of the Derby points system, which started with the 2013 race, has led to more favorites in the winner’s circle on the first Saturday in May. And trainers, for the most part, have cut down on the number of prep races in a Derby hopeful’s 3-year-old season in recent years.

Whatever the reason, the trend is there, and it’s hard to ignore.

One acknowledgment here: Country House entered the 2019 race off a third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, but he was named the Kentucky Derby winner after the controversial disqualification of Maximum Security, who crossed the finish line first and was coming into the race off a victory in the Florida Derby. Though the general consensus seems to be that Maximum Security deserved the DQ for interference in the final turn, he sure looked like the best horse on the track that day.

Simply put, recent form is producing winning results on Kentucky Derby Day.

So, who does this trend favor for Saturday’s race? And who would it exclude if the trend holds for an 11th straight year? Here’s a look (in order of shortest odds):

Who can win the Derby?

Essential Quality (2-1): Not only is the favorite coming off a victory in the Blue Grass Stakes, he’s entering the Derby with a perfect 5-for-5 record. If he wins Saturday, the gray colt would be the first Blue Grass/Derby dual winner since Strike the Gold in 1991. There have been only nine undefeated Derby winners in the past 100 years, but five of those have come since 2004.

Rock Your World (5-1): Another undefeated Derby entrant, morning-line second choice Rock Your World is coming to Churchill Downs off a victory in the Santa Anita Derby, arguably the most impressive of the final prep races this spring. He was 2-for-2 on the turf before his dirt debut in the Santa Anita Derby, and all three of his races have been at Santa Anita Park.

Known Agenda (6-1): The Florida Derby winner — trained by two-time Kentucky Derby winner Todd Pletcher — has won two in a row since adding blinkers and getting reigning jockey of the year Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. The Florida Derby has produced 24 Kentucky Derby winners, the most of any prep race.

Hot Rod Charlie (8-1): He’s won just twice in seven career races, but one of those victories came last time out in the Louisiana Derby. Only two horses have won both that race and the Kentucky Derby, however: Grindstone (1996) and Black Gold (1924). Two-time Derby winner Doug O’Neill trains Hot Rod Charlie.

King Fury (20-1): The son of Curlin had a rough end to his 2-year-old campaign, but he’s undefeated in 2021. He’s also run only one race this year: a victory in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland three weeks ago. Charismatic is the only Lexington Stakes winner to also win the Derby (in 1999). According to Churchill Downs records dating back to 1937, there have been 24 Derby runners with just one previous race as a 3-year-old. One of those finished second on Derby Day, one finished third, and none won the Derby. (NOTE: King Fury was scratched from the race Friday afternoon).

Bourbonic (30-1): The biggest shocker of the Derby prep season came from Bourbonic, who won the Wood Memorial at 72-1 odds to qualify for Saturday’s Derby. His other two career victories came in maiden and claiming races.

Super Stock (30-1): The surprise winner of the Arkansas Derby has two wins in eight career races (and the most starts of any horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby field). One of two entries for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who is 0-for-21 with Derby starters. (Midnight Bourbon is Asmussen’s other Derby hopeful).

Helium (50-1): An undefeated colt at a big price, Helium won two races on artificial surface in Canada for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse before winning his dirt debut as a 15-1 shot in the Tampa Bay Derby two months ago. Street Sense (2007) is the only horse to win both the Tampa Bay Derby and the Kentucky Derby.

Like the King (50-1): The winner of the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park has run his last three races on that track’s artificial surface. He’s never won on dirt (in two career starts).

Who can’t win the Derby?

Obviously, any of these horses can win Saturday’s race, but if the “win your final prep” trend holds up for another year, they won’t.

Highly Motivated (10-1): The shortest odds on a horse that lost last time out belong to Highly Motivated, who nearly defeated Derby favorite Essential Quality in the Blue Grass Stakes, losing by just a neck. He’s 0-for-2 in 2021. The last Derby winner who was previously winless as a 3-year-old was Super Saver in 2010. He was also 0-for-2 heading into the Derby.

Mandaloun (15-1): Once viewed as one of the Derby favorites, Mandaloun finished sixth as the 6-5 choice in the Louisiana Derby. In Churchill Downs records that date back to 1940, no Derby winner has been worse than fifth in their final prep race.

Medina Spirit (15-1): The only entry this year for six-time Derby winner Bob Baffert has never been worse than second in five career starts, though he was a squarely beaten runner-up to Rock Your World last time out in the Santa Anita Derby.

Midnight Bourbon (20-1): The Louisiana Derby runner-up has finished first, second or third in all seven of his career starts. He’s won two of those races.

O Besos (20-1): The hard-charging third-place finisher in the Louisiana Derby last time out has won two of his five career races.

Dynamic One (20-1): The Wood Memorial runner-up last time out didn’t break his maiden until March 7, on his fourth attempt. Orb is the only Kentucky Derby winner in the past 20 years who needed four races to earn his first victory.

Soup and Sandwich (30-1): The gray colt made his debut Jan. 28 and won two races before a runner-up finish in the Florida Derby. Justify (2018) and Apollo (1882) are the only Derby winners to have never raced as a 2-year-old. Only three horses since 1900 (Justify, Big Brown and Regret) have won the Derby with just three prior starts.

Brooklyn Strong (50-1): Another Derby contender with just one start in 2021, Brooklyn Strong won three of four races as a 2-year-old before finishing fifth in the Wood Memorial four weeks ago.

Hidden Stash (50-1): A two-time winner as a 2-year-old (including once at Churchill Downs), this long shot is 0-for-3 in 2021, most recently finishing fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Keepmeinmind (50-1): The fifth-place finisher in the Blue Grass Stakes was sixth in his 2021 debut in the Rebel Stakes in March, though he did win Churchill Downs’ premier race for 2-year-olds last fall.

Sainthood (50-1): Yet another Derby hopeful who made his racing debut in January and has just three career starts, Sainthood was a hard-luck runner-up in the Jeff Ruby Steaks last time out.

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