From Trevor to Tua, NFL quarterbacks never had it easier, yet harder | KEN WILLIS

Should’ve seen it coming. Some probably did.

It’s only natural, in retrospect, if they adjust the rules so that it’s never been easier to be an elite quarterback, the standards for eliteness will rise and no one will be forgiven for remaining “merely adequate.”

Occasionally great but often dull-to-dangerous? That’ll get you through some early-career growing pains, perhaps, (see Lawrence, Trevor) but don’t make it a mission statement. Well, unless you have the Niners' defense.

Every modern NFL fan base, you’ve noticed, acts as if it’s a birthright to have a Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow at QB.

Or Justin Herbert, or Jalen Hurts. Or, assuming his current injury status isn’t the beginning of longer-term issues, Lamar Jackson.

At the risk of inviting a scoff or two, it seems like a Carson Wentz, Mitch Trubisky or Jacoby Brissett might’ve enjoyed much higher reputations a couple of generations ago, when physical toughness and durability were high on the qualities desired in an NFL quarterback.

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Today, quarterbacks like that trio are considered starters of last resort — or at least second or third resort. Their collective crime: They’re not Mahomes, Allen or Burrow.

Problem is, there’s no fool-proof way to get yourself one of those elites. It’s easy to say you saw it coming with Mahomes, Allen and Burrow — they came to their respective NFL Drafts with all of the physical and mental tools craved by pro franchises.

But so did Zach Wilson. So did Sam Darnold. And before them, so did Matt Leinhart and, of course, Ryan Leaf, the gold standard on the projection-to-reality disparity scale.

Wilson and Darnold should get more chances, and hopefully so will Baker Mayfield, whose doses of unpredictability don’t play well in today’s QB climate.

Look at the starting quarterbacks on stage this weekend as the playoffs begin. Consider the range. In Tampa, you have Tom Brady, widely regarded as the best ever. In Frisco, there’s Brock Purdy, who’s a fill-in for Jimmy Garoppolo, who was a fill-in for Trey Lance.

Purdy has done quite well, but for a guy who would still be No. 3 on the depth chart if not for injuries, there’s no guarantee this isn’t his first and last shot in the spotlight. Famously, given his newfound role, he was the final player taken in last year’s draft. Also rather famously, Brady wasn’t drafted that much higher in his draft — he was a sixth-rounder.

The man whose job Brady inherited and refused to give back 21 years ago — Drew Bledsoe — had been the top overall pick in his draft. You just never know, but don’t try selling that reality to the modern fan.

Finally, relatively close to home, the precarious plight of the modern QB is on full display in Jacksonville and Miami, where Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa have been on divergent paths all season, but with reversed roles as time went along.

Early on, Tua was the quarterback Miami had desired when drafting him fifth overall two years earlier. Then the concussions, followed by a return and such production that some were listing him among the eventual MVP contenders.

Then a downturn in play, followed by a big uptick in the first half of the Christmas Day game, followed by another concussion and now … well, a question mark so big, the future of the Dolphins franchise will be shaped by decisions made in the coming weeks.

Amazing, considering how tall Tua and the organization (and fan base) were standing not that long ago.

Heading the other direction is Trevor and the Jags. This, too, is rather amazing when you think back just a couple of months, when the Jaguars were 2-6 and trailing the Raiders 17-0 midway through the second quarter.

Coming off a very challenging rookie season, and still showing certain inabilities through the first half of Year 2, last year’s No. 1 pick, for whom “generational talent” was such a natural fit, was looking like a potential generational bust.

But it was as if someone flipped a switch, found the code, or whatever cliche you prefer. Down 17-0 and showing zero signs of offensive competence, Lawrence’s arm and Travis Etienne’s legs put together a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive — it launched a comeback that day, this season, and perhaps for a generation in Duval.

The Jags went 7-2 the rest of the regular season, and just as importantly, they seem very secure at quarterback. Without Lawrence’s top-pick pedigree and the subsequent contract that came with it, he wouldn’t have gotten a season and a half to iron out his game. Not these days.

Maybe other franchises and their fans should consider such things before breaking out the catapult. They won’t, most likely, but maybe they should.

Quarterbacking has always been a tenuous vocation. And it’s funny, now that they’ve made it so much easier to succeed, it’s never been harder to be viewed as a success.

— Reach Ken Willis at ken.willis@news-jrnl.com

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: From Mahomes to Tua to Trevor Lawrence, elite NFL QB is a tough find