Trevor's numbers game: Recent hot streak puts Jags' quarterback on fast track for team records

Garry Smits, Florida Times-Union
·5 min read
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Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has had such a hot hand in the last three weeks that he's now in a position to break some of the team's longest-standing single-season passing records.
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has had such a hot hand in the last three weeks that he's now in a position to break some of the team's longest-standing single-season passing records.

With Trevor Lawrence’s resurgence in the past three games — if it continues — the Jaguars' second-year quarterback will be in a position to threaten many of the team’s single-season passing records.

Some of them date back as long as a quarter-century. Others are more than 10 years old.

More on Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars

And with every game like last week (and another comeback victory over Las Vegas three weeks ago), Lawrence gains more confidence and command of the offense. With that comes more production and hopefully victories — the only statistic that matters.

"We're getting confidence every week that we can beat anybody," he said Wednesday after the Jaguars practiced indoors. "I really think we're heading there. There are times you go through some trials, there are times kind of have to bring yourself back in and remind yourself of who you are."

Jaguars coach Doug Pederson said the strides Lawrence is making are putting bad performances in losses to Washington, Houston and Denver, for example, in the rear-view mirror.

"He played smart, took care of the football ... man, I thought he played really well," Pederson said. "He made some really big throws, took a step in the right direction. A win like that and the way we won, I think can just build more confidence within the team.”

Stats don't translate to victories

Of course, the only statistic anyone cares about from their quarterback, whether it’s coaches, fellow players or fans, is winning games. And eight of the statistical passing categories listed by the Jaguars, four were in seasons with losing records and five came in seasons in which the Jags did not reach the playoffs.

Exhibit A is Blake Bortles. He holds the single-season records in attempts, completions, yards and touchdown passes, all compiled in the 2015 and 2016 seasons when the Jaguars were 8-24 with him as a starter.

Bortles was loved by fantasy football owners and notably racked up big numbers in the second half when the games were out of reach. But in the big picture, his records didn't matter much.

Lawrence has enjoyed his best extended stretch of games in the last three weeks, which has brought many of the team records within his reach. He’s thrown for 815 yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions, a 76.8 percent completion rate and a passer rating of 116.9.

Blake Bortles holds the Jaguars' single-season record for passing yards, TD passes, attempts and completions. But in the years those records were set, the Jags were a combined 8-24.
Blake Bortles holds the Jaguars' single-season record for passing yards, TD passes, attempts and completions. But in the years those records were set, the Jags were a combined 8-24.

Lawrence accounted for 321 yards and three touchdowns, completed 78.4 percent of his passes and had a passer rating of 129.8 in Sunday's 28-27 victory over Baltimore. Lawrence was 15 of 19 for 173 yards in the fourth quarter.

More importantly, the Jaguars are 2-1 in those games.

Where he stands

Here are the current Jaguars' passing records and how Lawrence projects over a 17-game season. The projections are his averages over the first 11 games, multiplied by 17 (the total number of games this season):

• Attempts: Bortles holds the record with 625 in 2016, Lawrence has 385 and at that rate would have 595 for the season, 30 short of Bortles.

• Completions: Bortles completed 368 in 2016. Lawrence has 256 so far and is projected to break the record with 395.6.

• Yards: Bortles threw for 4,428 yards in 2015. Lawrence has 2,655 and at his current rate will throw for 4,103, falling 325 yards short.

• TD passes: Bortles set the team record with 35 in 2015. Lawrence has 16, which projects to 25.

• Interceptions: David Garrard holds the Jaguars' record for the lowest interception rate (with at least 300 attempts) at 0.9 in 2007, when he had three picks in 325 attempts. Lawrence currently has a 1.6 percent ratio (six interceptions in 385 attempts) but hasn’t thrown an interception in the last three games in 108 attempts. He could keep lowering that percentage if he keeps taking care of the ball.

• Yards per attempt: The oldest Jaguars single-game passing record is Mark Brunell’s 7.8 yards per attempt in 1996, which led the NFL. Lawrence currently is at 6.9 yards per attempt but he’s thrown for 7.5 yards per attempt in his last three games.

• Completion percentage: Lawrence is on track to shatter this record. He’s hit on 66.5 percent of his passes, well ahead of the team record of 64.5 Garrard set in 2019. Lawrence has completed 76.8 percent of his passes in the last three games.

• Passer rating: Garrard’s mark of 102.2 in 2007 is the team record. Lawrence has some catching up to do, sitting at 93.6. But again, if he continues his current hot streak, the team record is within sight. He had a 129.8 rating last week against the Ravens and has been 106.1 or better in his last three games and four of his last six.

• Victories: There aren’t enough games left for Lawrence to threaten this record. Brunell was 14-2 as a starter in 1999. The best Lawrence can do is 10-7, if the Jaguars win their last six games.

The way Lawrence is playing, Jags fans might say, why not?

"There are times when I haven't played my best," he said. "That's part of my growth and development. I still have a lot to learn. I'm not saying I've arrived at all. this game will humble you real quick."

Contact Garry Smits at gsmits@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @GSmitter

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Trevor Lawrence's recent string of games puts Jaguars records within reach