Will Tri-Cities get wintry weather this Thanksgiving? What a meteorologist has to say

November is in full swing, and before we know it, family members will be flying into town, and we’ll be setting the table for a Thanksgiving feast.

Those traveling or who have loved ones visiting may wonder what the weather forecast is around the holiday.

It’s too early for a precise prediction, but there’s certainly a chance that snow could be in the forecast for Tri-Cities.

“Right now, we’ve got about a 10% chance of measurable snowfall for the Tri-Cities for Thanksgiving,” Camden Plunkett, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Pendleton, Oregon, told the Tri-City Herald on Monday.

Measurable snowfall constitutes at least one-tenth of an inch, so although a specific forecast hasn’t yet been created, even that 10% chance of snowfall could be minimal.

Plunkett said the best source for a forecast this many days from Thanksgiving is the Climate Prediction Center, an arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The CPC says that Southeast Washington will have a 40-50% chance of below-average temperatures and a 33-40% chance of above-average precipitation.

The average high temperature for the Tri-Cities on Thanksgiving is 46 degrees, while the average low is 30, so if snow were to fall, it would have to be in the early morning hours when the temperature is coldest.

It’s also been a warmer fall than average for the Tri-Cities, Plunkett said, with October being 1.7 degrees warmer than average and November 3.2 degrees above normal, meaning a cool down is due.

When does it typically first snow in Tri-Cities?

Snowfall around Thanksgiving for the Tri-Cities isn’t unusual, with the average first snowfall arriving in late November, according to The Weather Channel.

But heavy snow on Thanksgiving Day is a rarity.

According to data from the NWS, the heaviest snowfall recorded on Thanksgiving Day in the Tri-Cities was 0.4 inches in 1953.

A more precise Thanksgiving forecast

It’s slightly too early for the National Weather Service to provide an accurate Thanksgiving forecast, with Plunkett saying the current forecast could go either way.

“Models are saying we’ll either get a ridge of high pressure sitting over us or we get a trough of low pressure,” Plunkett said. “In those two scenarios, there’s a lot of uncertainty about which one will happen. If we get that low pressure, there will be colder temperatures.”

Plunkett said there would likely be a clearer picture for the Tri-Cities’ Thanksgiving forecast by this weekend.