Two systems, both on paths toward Caribbean, could become tropical depressions
Two storms brewing in the Atlantic each have the potential to form into tropical depressions by midweek, according to the National Hurricane Center.
A cluster of storm clouds approaching the Caribbean Sea stands a 50% chance of forming into a tropical depression, a 20% increase from Saturday.
One system was 400 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands, moving about 15 mph west-northwest around 8 p.m. Sunday.
The system is forecast to move west-northwest into the far eastern Caribbean Sea late Monday, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday.
By midweek it should be near Haiti and the Dominican Republic, forecasters said.
Meanwhile, there’s a “small but well-defined area of low pressure” in the central tropical Atlantic that is forecast to encounter favorable conditions and may become a tropical depression by the middle of next week.
It is expected to move west-southwest or west during the next couple of days, and then speed up as it heads west. It has been given a 40% chance of developing over the next five days.
Both systems are being monitored for possible formation of a tropical cyclone, a rotating storm system that could range in strength from tropical depression to tropical storm to hurricane. It’s possible none will.
On Sunday, a third system diminished off the African coast due to the presence of strong upper-level winds and cooler water. Its odds dropped from 20% on Saturday to 0% by Sunday.
Storm activity in the Atlantic has picked up recently after a period of relative calm. The last year a storm was not named between July 10 and Aug. 3 was in 2009 — until now, according to a tweet from Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University meteorologist.
If a tropical depression forms from either system, it would be the first tropical cyclone to form in the Atlantic in more than a month, since the July 1 appearance of the storm system that would become Hurricane Elsa.
The number of storms is likely to increase in frequency over the next few weeks as the season ramps up toward its September peak. The next two storm names are Fred and Grace.
Though water temperatures are plenty warm, which is favorable to storm development, other factors are in play.
“Pockets of dry air across the eastern and central Atlantic will continue to inhibit the development of the tropical waves crossing the basin,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.
It’s too soon to say whether either system would be a threat to land.
Conditions over the Atlantic have grown more favorable for storm formation, with a decline in the factors that can shut down storms, AccuWeather said.
There has been a decline in wind shear, the high-altitude crosswinds that can tear up storms, and a decreased concentration of the dry, dusty air that can inhibit storm growth.
The 2021 season is expected to produce an above-average number of storms, with NOAA forecasting seven to 10 hurricanes.
