Tropical Cyclone Maha to threaten flooding, damaging winds in western India by midweek

Tropical systems will continue to be the source of wet weather in India through the first full week of November.

Maha, now a very severe cyclonic storm, formed in the Arabian Sea during the middle of last week. The cyclone has slowly moved in a northwest direction while continuing to strengthen over the last few days.

The above satellite image shows Maha spinning off the western shores of India on Sunday, 3 November. (Photo/NASA)

Many of the typical impacts expected from a such a strong system have been kept at bay, due to Maha's offshore path. While staying parallel to the western coast of India, the strongest winds have remained over open water, with occasional downpours reaching western parts of the country.

"The northwesterly track is expected to continue for Maha into Monday, keeping most of the wind and rain offshore," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk.

Maha may peak at the intensity comparable to a Category 3 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean while well off the coast if India.

However, by Tuesday, AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate that Maha will hook eastward and head for the Gujarat region of western India.

While southern and coastal parts of Gujarat may get some of the outer rain bands from Maha into as early as Tuesday, the heaviest rainfall will wait until midweek.

When Maha moves closer to the Indian coast, although weakening, it may still be a cyclonic storm and strong wind and heavy rain possible.

On Sunday, India's Coast Guard deployed ships and aircraft along the coast of northwest India to warn boaters to return to the nearest port.

While the proximity to land may ultimately weaken Maha before it makes landfall, gusty winds are likely to cause tree damage as well as power outages.

Rounds of tropical downpours and locally heavy rainfall looks to stretch from the Gujarat coast to southern and eastern Rajasthan as well as northern Madhya Pradesh during the middle and second half of the week. This amount of rainfall can amount to flooding, especially in poorly drained or low-lying areas.

Both the rain and wind are likely to cause travel disruptions for many in the region.

The coastline and offshore waters along northwestern India are likely to see dangerously rough seas through the course of the week. Boaters should heed local warnings.

Maha will not be the last of the tropical influences on India in early November.

Meteorologists have been monitoring the lingering energy from what was once Tropical Storm Matmo, a tropical system that which crossed the western Pacific Ocean and made landfall in Vietnam late in October.

The concern is that as the energy emerges into the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal late week, it could redevelop into a tropical system.

"While such a development could spell more tropical rainfall for parts of India, any impacts felt to the country are likely to wait until somewhere around Nov. 9," said Houk.

Until that time, most of the rainfall will remain over open waters, while some showers reach parts of Myanmar as well as the Adnaman and Nicobar Islands.