Tropical Depression 10 forms in Gulf of Mexico. It could hit Florida as Hurricane Idalia
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical depression that formed Saturday in the Gulf of Mexico. Its projected path has it making landfall on the west coast of Florida or the Florida Panhandle next week.
Tropical Depression Ten is expected to become the ninth named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season. Its name would be Idalia.
Forecasters are advising Florida residents to monitor the storm's development. Current forecasts have it making landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. On Saturday, Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency for 33 counties ahead of the storm.
At 8 p.m., the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located off the coast of Cancun. The depression is nearly stationary, and little overall movement is expected through Sunday.
A slow, generally northward motion is expected to begin on Monday. On the forecast track, the center will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
What to look for in the tropics: Three key factors that will determine if Gulf storm becomes a hurricane
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday. The system could then become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday.
When maximum sustained winds reach 39 mph, it will become a tropical storm.
"Rapid development and strengthening could take place in the eastern Gulf of Mexico where the feature transitions from a tropical depression to a Category 1 hurricane in the span of 24 hours," said Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist.
Here's the latest information from the NHC as of the latest advisory:
Tropical Depression Ten: What you need to know
Location: 45 miles east-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico
Maximum sustained winds: 30 mph
Movement: northwest at 1 mph
Pressure: 1,005 mb
Next advisory: 11 p.m.
Watches and warnings issued for Tropical Depression Ten
If you can't see any local weather warnings here, you'll need to open this story in a web browser.
For an explanation of what the watches and warning mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.
Tropical storm watch: Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
Tropical storm warning: Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
Tropical Depression 10 spaghetti models
Weather alerts issued across Florida
How strong is Tropical Depression 10 and where is it going?
Key messages from the Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Depression Ten
Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression 10 is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides, across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula where a tropical storm warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible over western Cuba within the tropical storm watch area.
The depression is forecast to strengthen over the next few days and could become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall and strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid- to late next week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure they have a hurricane plan in place.
What impact could Tropical Depression 10 have and what areas could be affected?
Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area over western Cuba beginning on Sunday.
Storm surge: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds.
Rainfall: Tropical Depression 10 is expected to produce 3-6 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, across the Yucatan Peninsula. Across western Cuba, rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches, with isolated amounts of 12 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and landslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall also is likely to impact portions of the Gulf Coast and portions of the Southeast by mid- to late next week.
What do the watches and warnings from NHC mean?
What is storm surge? Graphics explain the deadly weather event
Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Tropical Depression 10: Florida impact, hurricane tracker, spaghetti models
