Tropical Storm Julia expected to form Friday
Tropical Storm Julia is expected to spin into formation Friday morning as the National Hurricane Center braces for the 13th tropical depression of the season.
At 11 a.m. the NHC released information on “potential tropical cyclone 13″ which currently has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and a forward motion of 15 mph. The potential depression is 150 miles east-southeast of Curacao.
As a result, the government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to Riohacha. Models show the system could become an official tropical depression by tonight. At the moment its center is too undefined to be a proper depression, the NHC said.
“The center is difficult to locate. It’s estimated to be over water just north of Venezuela based on extrapolation, although it should be noted that stronger turning is becoming evident in the cloud pattern a little farther south over land,” said NHC specialist Robbie Berg. “Intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement that a well-defined center could form by tonight, assuming the system is still over water, with winds potentially increasing to tropical storm force by Friday morning.”
If it does, it will take on the name Julia.
Meteorologists are predicting PTC-13 to move near the ABC Islands, the coast of northwestern Venezuela, and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia through Friday morning. The system is then forecast to move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and approach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday as a hurricane.
Further east, tropical Depression 12 is expected to dissipate by Friday night. TD 12 formed about 635 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands with sustained winds of 35 mph moving west-northwest at 13 mph. As of 5 a.m. TD 12 is barely a depression and losing organization due to strong vertical wind shear, keeping the depression’s form ragged and unable to gain strength, said NHC specialist Andy Latto.
“The shear affecting the depression is forecast to increase further, while the system ingests dry air to its west,” the NHC said. Storm models predict the depression to become a remnant low by Thursday.
So far, the 2022 hurricane season has produced nine named storms and one more tropical depression that spun up and fell apart while Ian was striking Florida. The NHC also tracked one other potential cyclone that never grew into a depression, so that is why the most recent tropical depression is named TD 12.
Initially, the season was off to a slow start with a quiet July and August, but the season has picked up the pace since Sept. 1 with the emergence of four hurricanes including Fiona and Ian in the last two weeks. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the season to be an above-average year in storm production calling for 14-21 named storms. An average year has 14.
Hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.
