Disturbance in Gulf of Mexico likely to make landfall as tropical storm, forecasters say

Chris Perkins, Victoria Ballard, Angie DiMichele, South Florida Sun-Sentinel
·2 min read

Parts of Texas and Mexico are under tropical storm warnings as it becomes increasingly likely a system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will make landfall as a tropical storm this weekend, forecasters said.

The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories for Potential Tropical Storm Four on Friday afternoon. It is expected to become a tropical storm Friday night or Saturday, according to the center’s 8 p.m. update. The next named storm will be Danielle.

As of 8 p.m. Friday, the system was moving northwest at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The disturbance has an 80% chance of developing in the next 48 hours.

By Saturday night, forecasters predict the system will reach maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.

“On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to approach the coast of northeastern Mexico on Saturday and make landfall there Saturday night,” said senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven.

Although the system could strengthen while it’s over water, by Saturday night it’s expected to be over land in northeastern Mexico, ending its chances for further development.

Regardless of whether the system develops it could deliver much-needed rain to south Texas. Forecasters expect the region to see between 1 to 3 inches of rain with higher amounts in some far southern parts of the state, the hurricane center’s 8 p.m. update says.

Forecasters said the system poses little or no threat to South Florida.

The most active part of hurricane season is from now, mid-August, until the end of October.

The last Atlantic hurricane was Sam, which became a hurricane Sept. 24 and maintained that status until Oct 5 as it cut a path between the United States and Bermuda.

There have been three named storms so far this season — Alex, Bonnie and Colin. Alex made its presence known in South Florida by dumping as much as 12 inches of rain in some areas.

Forecasters say dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear have been among the reasons there haven’t been more storms this year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its updated hurricane season predictions earlier this month.

NOAA predicts 14 to 20 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes with three to five being major, meaning Category 3 or higher.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.