Hurricane Julia could form in the Caribbean Sea. What the forecast shows

Michelle Marchante, Devoun Cetoute
·3 min read
2

Tropical Depression 13 formed off the northern coast of South America on Thursday night — pushing the system one step closer to strengthening to a hurricane as it nears Nicaragua.

The system, which is not a threat to Florida, is expected to bring flooding rain, with potential life-threatening flash flooding, across the ABC Islands — Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao — and northern South America through Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center’s advisory at 11 p.m. Thursday.

If the system does strengthen into a tropical storm, which is forecast to happen by Friday morning, it would be named Julia and would be the 10th named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

Here’s what else to know:

Where is the system now?

As of 11 p.m., the system is about 60 miles west-southwest of Curacao and about 120 miles east-southeast of the northern tip of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia, according to the National Hurricane Center. It’s moving quickly west at about 15 mph with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph with higher gusts.

Where is it going and when could it turn into Julia?

On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, the coast of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia Thursday night through Friday morning. It’s forecast to become Tropical Storm Julia Friday morning.

The hurricane center expects it will approach the coast of Nicaragua as a Category 1 hurricane Sunday, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Once it makes landfall, the forecast shows it weakening back into a tropical storm and then a depression while moving across Central America.

Tropical Depression 13 formed off the northern coast of South America Thursday night, pushing the system one step closer to strengthening to a hurricane as it nears Nicaragua. 
Tropical Depression 13 formed off the northern coast of South America Thursday night, pushing the system one step closer to strengthening to a hurricane as it nears Nicaragua.

Watches/warnings

▪ A hurricane watch is now in effect for the islands of San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina in Colombia. A tropical storm warning also remains in effect for the Colombian coast from Riohacha east to the Colombia/Venezuela border.

▪ Watches might be issued for San Andres, Providencia and portions of Central America later Thursday.

Heavy rain chance

Here’s how much rain the system may bring through early Monday. There is a risk for life-threatening flash flooding:

▪ Venezuela’s northern coast and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia could see three to six inches of rain, with some isolated areas possibly seeing up to 10 inches of rain.

▪ San Andres and Providencia could see 6 to 12 inches of rain.

▪ Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao could see 3 to 6 inches of rain.

▪ Central Nicaragua could see 3 to 6 inches of rain, with some isolated areas possibly seeing up to 10 inches. In eastern Nicaragua, 6 to 10 inches of rain will be possible, with some isolated areas possibly seeing up to 16 inches of rain.

▪ Southwest Costa Rica and extreme Western Panama could see 4 to 8 inches of rain, with some areas seeing up to 12 inches.

Is there another system in the Atlantic?

READ NEXT: Could another storm form in the Atlantic? A look at the final stretch of hurricane season

The hurricane center issued its last advisory for Tropical Depression 12 at 11 p.m., which dissipated about 860 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.