Tropical depression increasingly likely to form, bring winds and rain to South Florida on Election Day

A system off the east coast of Florida could develop into a tropical depression early next week.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting an increasing chance that a subtropical or tropical depression could form in the Atlantic and potentially threaten Florida in the next five days.

“Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form during the early part of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic,” the center’s latest advisory said.

The depression could evolve into a tropical storm or even a low-end hurricane that threatens Florida’s east coast, but it’s still too early to say.

“Worst case scenario, and I’m kind of speculating here, it could be a tropical storm or possibly a low end hurricane,” said Shawn Bhatti, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service Miami. “Can’t rule out a low end hurricane, but again it’s still really early and we don’t have enough confidence to say for certain.”

Most of southern Florida could see strong winds and excessive rainfall next week as early as Tuesday, depending on how the system develops, according to the National Weather Service Miami.

Barry Baxter, also a meteorologist for National Weather Service Miami, encouraged South Floridians to stay vigilant through the weekend.

“We are technically still in hurricane season until the end of this month,” he said. “So don’t let your guard down just because it’s in November. It’s rare we get them this time of year, but we could still get them.”

As of 5 p.m. Saturday, forecasters predict a large non-tropical low pressure system will develop this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic near Puerto Rico.

At Sunday at 2 a.m., the chances for development in the next five days were at 80%. The system has a 50% chance of developing in the next 48 hours.

On Tuesday, which is also Election Day, South Florida voters will likely begin feeling the effects as the system brings moisture up from the Caribbean Sea. Forecasters are predicting chances of wind, lightning, excessive rainfall, and coastal flooding that day.

“It’s going to be broad at this point, but definitely bringing moisture in,” said Baxter. “It’s going to be kind of a wet day.”

The National Weather Service Miami said in a briefing Saturday that there remains “low confidence” in “any specific details on magnitude and location of weather impacts which is highly dependent on what type of system approaches our area next week.”

But regardless of the type of system, there is a heightened chance of gusty winds, coastal flooding, high seas, rough surf and beach erosion on Florida’s east coast starting Monday and continuing throughout the week, according to the weather service.

“The risk of gusty winds and heavy rainfall could increase over most of the southern Florida peninsula next week depending on the evolution of this system,” the National Weather Service Miami said in its Saturday briefing.

Forecasters are also monitoring an area of weak low pressure located several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda that now has increased to a 70% chance of developing in the next two days. A subtropical or tropical depression could form over the next few days, but a strong cold front is expected to end further development.

The former Hurricane Lisa dissipated Saturday morning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

As of 11 a.m., Lisa’s maximum sustained winds had decreased to 25 mph, and its remnants were moving north near 5 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Martin moved slowly to the east Friday and is expected to move east to east-southeast over the weekend, the center’s advisory said. Its winds will slow over the next few days but still remain strong into the weekend, creating “hazardous wind and seas over a very wide area of the North Atlantic for the next couple of days.”

There have been two major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or above, so far this season.

NOAA has predicted at least four more hurricanes will form before hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30.

The next named storm to form will be Nicole.