Tropical depression may form near Bermuda; National Hurricane Center watching 2 systems

That tropical disturbance that's been wandering around Bermuda the last few days? Odds are improving for it to become something bigger.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased slightly, the National Weather Service said, and if that continues near the center it could become a tropical depression today.

"Satellite images during the daylight revealed that a low-level center was trying to form," said Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist. "However, part of that center was nearly free of clouds early on Monday. Since then, thunderstorms have been trying to build all the way around the center. While these storms have yet to become organized, the system may turn tropical if they are able to do so."

The system, which the National Weather Service has dubbed Invest 94L, is not likely to threaten the United States but Bermuda is expected to see more heavy rainfall and gusty winds this morning.

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Another system is expected to form north of Puerto Rico in a few days and may begin to develop over the weekend.

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If a tropical storm forms, the next name on the list for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is Lisa.

Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 5 a.m.:

What's out there and where are they?

5-day tropical weather outlook for the Atlantic basin as of Oct. 25, 2022.
5-day tropical weather outlook for the Atlantic basin as of Oct. 25, 2022.

Tropical wave 1 (Invest 94L): Showers and thunderstorms have increased slightly, but remain limited near a well-defined area of low pressure located about 40 miles south-southwest of Bermuda. The system is expected to continue moving northward towards cooler waters and into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds, which should limit additional development.

Regardless of development, periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over Bermuda through this morning. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 60 percent

  • Formation chance through 5 days: medium, 60 percent

Tropical wave 2: An area of low pressure is expected to form north of Puerto Rico over the southwestern Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual subtropical development of this system while it meanders over the southwestern Atlantic through the weekend.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent

  • Formation chance through 5 days: low, 30 percent

Who is likely to be impacted?

If the tropical depression forms, eastern Massachusetts and eastern Maine may see locally heavy rainfall, some thunderstorms and minor flooding, according to AccuWeather.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared during what's expected to be an active hurricane season.

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA
Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA

Although the season has gotten off to a quiet start, the peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Weather watches and warnings issued for your area

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Tropical forecast over next five days

See the National Hurricane Center's five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.

Excessive rainfall forecast

What's out there?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

What's next?

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This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Tropical weather: Depression may form near Bermuda Tuesday