Tropical disturbance could be depression by mid-week, forecasters say

·2 min read

The odds have improved for a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean to develop into a depression in the next several days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The disturbance, in the central tropical Atlantic, has a 40% chance of formation over the next five days, the Center said in its 2 p.m. Saturday advisory — 10% better than officials gave it Saturday morning. For now, it’s still producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, but it could meet favorable conditions as it heads toward waters east of the Leeward Islands. The disturbance’s chance of forming a depression in the next two days remains low, at 10%.

Meteorologists are also watching two forecasts with low chances of forming tropical cyclones. A low-pressure trough could form in the Caribbean Sea in the next few days, and could develop slowly as it moves toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Its five-day odds of formation remain low, though, at 20%.

The Center also noted a tropical wave that could move off Africa’s west coast early next week. Forecasters gave it a 20% chance of developing in the next five days.

• • •

2022 Tampa Bay Times Hurricane Guide

IT'S STORM SEASON: Get ready and stay informed at tampabay.com/hurricane.

RISING THREAT: Tampa Bay will flood. Here's how to get ready.

DOUBLE-CHECK: Checklists for building all kinds of hurricane kits

PHONE IT IN: Use your smartphone to protect your data, documents and photos.

SELF-CARE: Protect your mental health during a hurricane.

• • •

Rising Threat: A special report on flood risk and climate change

PART 1: The Tampa Bay Times partnered with the National Hurricane Center for a revealing look at future storms.

PART 2: Even weak hurricanes can cause huge storm surges. Experts say people don't understand the risk.

PART 3: Tampa Bay has huge flood risk. What should we do about it?

INTERACTIVE MAP: Search your Tampa Bay neighborhood to see the hurricane flood risk.