National Hurricane Center tracking system moving toward Florida. See spaghetti models
Forecasters are encouraging Florida residents to closely monitor a disturbance making its way toward the Gulf of Mexico, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
A tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week as it moves generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Franklin is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend. Current forecasts call for Franklin to become a strong Category 2 hurricane with 110-mph winds Monday.
Almost all computer models predict Franklin will maintain a northerly path east of the Florida and the U.S. and west of Bermuda.
'Remain vigilant and prepare.' Tropical depression could develop in Gulf of Mexico
In the central Atlantic, chances are dropping for the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily to restrengthen.
Farther south in the central Atlantic, Invest 92L could become a tropical depression early next week.
A new system off the coast of Africa popped up on the Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map at 2 p.m. It currently has a low chance for development as it moves west across the Atlantic.
The next named storms of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be Idalia, Jose and Katia.
Florida forecast: Three key factors that will determine if Gulf storm becomes a hurricane
Will Florida get a hurricane?
An area of low pressure developing over the northwest Caribbean Sea has a high chance of tropical cyclone development as it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The system "will likely intensify as it enters the Gulf next week. At a minimum, it will track towards Florida as a depression. Gulf Coast residents should prepare for coastal impacts. Flooding rains are possible well inland. Plan ahead and keep checking back," the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network tweeted.
Rain, thunderstorms, winds and building seas will likely precede the arrival of the tropical system by 12 hours or more, according to AccuWeather.
Enough rain, perhaps several inches or more, may fall to lead to areas of inland flooding in low-lying areas beginning as early as Tuesday in Central Florida, said AccuWeather Senior Storm Warning Meteorologist Eddie Walker.
"Tropical-storm-force winds with gusts ranging from 40-60 mph are likely with locally stronger gusts possible along the central Florida Gulf coast," Walker said.
"These conditions could shift northward or southward and could be worse, depending on the intensity and track of the tropical system from Tuesday to Wednesday."
On Thursday, Gov. Ron DeSantis' official schedule showed he had a call with Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie.
Later, DeSantis posted on X, “I’ve directed @KevinGuthrieFL & the FL Emergency Management team to prepare for a potential tropical system currently moving across the Yucatán Peninsula. Residents should remain vigilant and prepare for possible impacts early next week. Follow @FLSERT for updates.”
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Tropical Storm Franklin is expected to stay well east of Florida.
"Franklin poses no direct threat to Florida," said the Florida Division of Emergency Management.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m.:
System in Caribbean likely to strengthen as it moves into Gulf of Mexico
Satellite images indicate an area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is gradually becoming better organized, with increasing thunderstorms and a better-defined low-level circulation.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Residents in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: high, 80 percent.
Several spaghetti models for Invest 93L show path toward Florida
Tropical Storm Franklin could become strong Category 2 hurricane
Location: 215 miles east of Grand Turk Island; 750 miles south-southwest of Bermuda; 827 miles east of West Palm Beach
Latitude/longitude: latitude 21.8 North, longitude 67.8 West
Maximum wind speed: 50 mph
Direction: east-southeast at 5 mph
Franklin is moving toward the east-southeast near 5 mph, and this motion will gradually become more easterly and northeasterly today. A sharp turn toward the north, with an increase in forward motion isexpected tonight and Saturday, with a northward or north-northwestward motion over the western Atlantic continuing through early next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.
Gradual strengthening is forecast by tomorrow, and Franklin will likely become a hurricane over the weekend.
By Monday, maximum sustained winds are forecast to reach 110 mph, making it a strong Category 2 hurricane. Major hurricanes are Category 3 or higher. A storm becomes a Category 3 storm once winds reach 111 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure from dropsonde data is 1003 mb.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Franklin
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Invest 7: A trough of low pressure located roughly 1000 miles east-northeast of Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is producing an elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are becoming unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation, and the low is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the north central Atlantic in the next day or so.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10 percent.
Invest 92L: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the northern Leeward Islands.
Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development over the weekend, and atropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the central subtropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 50 percent.
Disturbance 4: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa early next week. Some slow development of this system is then possible late next week while the system moves westward across the Tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical forecast over the next seven days
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: NHC tracking system in Caribbean, Tropical Storm Franklin
