NHC predicts Bret will remain tropical storm. See spaghetti models, expected impact
Tropical Storm Bret is maintaining 40-mph winds and picking up speed, but the latest forecasts calls for Bret to remain a tropical storm as it encounters conditions that may prevent it from reaching hurricane strength, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Residents in the Lesser Antilles were advised to monitor the progress of Bret as it moves toward the Caribbean Sea. Tropical storm watches may be required for some islands later today or tonight.
That advice was echoed by AccuWeather meteorologists, who urged residents in Bret's path to look at the "entire window of movement" and not just the center, especially since it is possible the storm could take not only a westerly path but a "last-minute jog to the north" as it nears the Caribbean, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
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Tropical Storm Bret: See spaghetti models, projected path and storm activity for Florida
There continues to be a "significant spread in the three to five day track" for Bret, probably due in large part to differences in the storm's predicted intensity, said Hurricane Center forecasters.
Most forecast models predict wind shear will affect Bret's ability to strengthen into a hurricane. While some strengthening is possible, the current National Hurricane Center's forecast calls for Bret to remain below hurricane strength and to dissipate within five days.
Tropical Storm Bret is unusual June storm
Bret is the farthest east a tropical storm has formed in the tropical Atlantic — south of 23.5 North — this early in the calendar year on record, according to Colorado State University hurricane meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.
#Bret has formed in the central tropical Atlantic - the farthest east that a tropical storm has formed in the tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5°N) this early in the calendar year on record. pic.twitter.com/tx43WbHh8V
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) June 19, 2023
Tropical Storm Bret 2023 is the seventh earliest third named storm on record.
It's unusual for a tropical system to form in the eastern part of the tropical Atlantic from a tropical wave that emerged off Africa. Typically, that happens in August and September, according to AccuWeather.
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Spaghetti models, forecast path for Tropical Storm Bret
Can't see the spaghetti models?
Tropical Storm Bret: What you need to know
Location: 945 miles east of the southern Windward Islands; 2,375 miles southeast of West Palm Beach
Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph
Movement: west at 21 mph
Pressure: 1008 mb
Next advisory: 5 p.m.
How strong is Tropical Storm Bret and where is it going?
At 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located 945 miles east of the southern Windward Islands (near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 47.0 West).
Bret is moving toward the west near 21 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.
On the forecast track, the center of Bret could move across portions of the Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Bret is expected to be a tropical storm when it reaches the Lesser Antilles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.
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Key messages from the Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Bret
As the sun rises this morning, @NOAA's #GOESEast 🛰️ is continuing to monitor Tropical Storm #Bret, which formed yesterday over the central Atlantic. The storm is expected to strengthen as it continues westward toward the Lesser Antilles.
Latest: https://t.co/ScLdyBac9D pic.twitter.com/bn0C5xjQaV— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) June 20, 2023
Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through early Thursday and then move across the islands Thursday and Thursday night as a tropical storm, bringing a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast.
Given the larger-than-usual uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where Bret's associated hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor updates to the forecast for Bret. Tropical storm watches may be required for portions of the Lesser Antilleslater today or tonight.
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Looking ahead: Positions and maximum winds forecast for Tropical Storm Bret
12 hours: 45 mph
24 hours: 50 mph
36 hours: 60 mph
48 hours: 65 mph
60 hours: 65mph
72 hours: 60 mph
96 hours: 50 mph
120 hours: dissipated
What impact could Tropical Storm Bret have and what areas could be affected?
Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe southward to St. Lucia. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible across Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Isolated urban floodingis also possible.
Residents in the eastern Caribbean could see gusty winds and heavy rain, which could bring downed tree branches, minor roof damage and isolated flooding in low-lying areas, according to AccuWeather.
Weather watches, warnings issued for your area
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What do watches and warnings from NHC mean?
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Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: NHC: Tropical Storm Bret picking up speed. No hurricane forecast
