Tropical Storm Bret slightly strengthens, grows. See spaghetti models, expected impact

Tropical Storm Bret has strengthened slightly with maximum sustained winds now up to 65 mph, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Bret has also slightly increased in size, with tropical-storm-force winds extending out up to 105 miles from the center of the storm.

Bret is continuing to move west, slightly picking up speed to 15 mph. The tropical storm is forecast to strengthen slightly but remain a tropical storm as it moves into the Caribbean Friday, when Bret is expected to weaken.

➤Track Tropical Storm Bret

➤ Excessive rainfall forecast

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next day as it reaches the Lesser Antilles. Weakening is expected to start Thursday night or Friday as Bret passes over the Lesser Antilles, and the system is predicted to dissipate Saturday.

As Bret moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea, environmental conditions are expected to make it unfavorable for further intensification.

'Unprecedented' hurricane season: Tropical Storm Bret and (possible) Cindy may mean active hurricane season ahead

Tropical Storm Bret: See spaghetti models, projected path and storm activity for Florida

"As Bret moves into the eastern Caribbean later this week, the storm is forecast to encounter increasing wind shear. This wind shear would prevent further intensification and Bret will begin to lose organization Friday and into the weekend," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva.

Spaghetti models, forecast path for Tropical Storm Bret

Can't see the spaghetti models?

Tropical Storm Bret: What you need to know

• Location: 375 miles east of Barbados; 2,376 miles southeast of West Palm Beach

• Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph

• Movement: west at 15 mph

• Pressure: 1000 mb

• Next advisory: 8 p.m.

How strong is Tropical Storm Bret and where is it going?

At 5 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located 375 miles east of Barbados, near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 53.9 West.

Bret is moving toward the west near 15 mph, and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next several days.

On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, move across the Lesser Antilles late Thursday and Thursday night, and then move west across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

Little change in strength is forecast before Bret reaches the Lesser Antilles. Weakening is expected to start Thursday night or Friday once Bret moves over the Lesser Antilles, and the system is likely to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea by Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb.

Rare June hurricanes: Is a rare June hurricane possible? Forecasters are keeping their eyes on latest storm

Key messages from the Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Bret

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through Thursday and then move across those islands late Thursday and Thursday night.

2. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with a maximum of 10 inches are possible across parts of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St. Vincent and the Grenadines, including Barbados, through Sunday.

NOAA hurricane season forecast: NOAA predicts 'near normal' hurricane season with 12-17 named storms and 5-9 hurricanes

Looking ahead: Positions and maximum winds forecast for Tropical Storm Bret

• 12 hours: 65 mph

• 24 hours: 65 mph

• 36 hours: 65 mph

• 48 hours: 60 mph

• 60 hours: 50 mph

• 72 hours: 45 mph

• 96 hours: dissipated

What impact could Tropical Storm Bret have and what areas could be affected?

As Bret moves through the Lesser Antilles as a strong tropical storm, it could bring flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds and dangerous waves along the coast, said Hurricane Center forecasters.

Residents and visitors in the Windward and Leeward islands, will see conditions worsen from Thursday to early Friday. Building seas and surf, increasing winds and more frequent tropical downpours and gusty thunderstorms are expected, according to AccuWeather.

Gusts with a tropical storm force of 40 to 60 mph are expected to spread through the islands, and hurricane-force gusts are possible in areas near the storm's center. Gusts of 100 mph are possible. Any wind gusts above 40 mph are capable of breaking tree limbs, while gusts approaching hurricane force and above can lead to roof damage, downed trees and power outages.

According to the National Hurricane Center's 5 p.m. Wednesday advisory, 3 to 6 inches of rain (with a maximum of 10 inches) are expected across islands in the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St. Vincent and the Grenadines, including Barbados, through Saturday. The rain could cause flash flooding, especially in areas of high terrain, as well as urban flooding.

Watches and warnings issued ahead of Tropical Storm Bret

A tropical storm warning in in effect for:

• St. Lucia

• Martinique

A tropical storm watch is in effect for:

• Barbados

• Dominica

• St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Residents in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings will likely berequired for these islands today.

Click on map to see watches, warnings in effect in your area

What do watches and warnings from NHC mean?

What is storm surge? Graphics explain the deadly weather event

Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.

Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Bret is unusual June storm

Bret is the farthest east a tropical storm has formed in the tropical Atlantic — south of 23.5 North — this early in the calendar year on record, according to Colorado State University hurricane meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.

Tropical Storm Bret 2023 is the seventh earliest third named storm on record.

It's unusual for a tropical system to form in the eastern part of the tropical Atlantic from a tropical wave that emerged off Africa. Typically, that happens in August and September, according to AccuWeather.

June hurricane? A hurricane making Florida landfall in June? Here is how often that's happened

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: NHC: Tropical Storm Bret path. Hurricane tracker. Warning, watches issued