Tropical Storm Bret strengthens on approach to Caribbean

Bill Kearney, Angie DiMichele, Robin Webb, South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Updated ·3 min read

Tropical Storm Bret is forecast to hit the far eastern Caribbean this week, bringing the threat of floods and high winds and dangerous waves, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday.

The center of the storm could move over the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Tropical storm watches are already in effect for Barbados, Domenica, Martinique and St. Lucia.

The storm is expected to strengthen over the next day or so, and tropical-storm-force winds could begin within the watch areas Thursday.

As Bret continues east it will encounter wind shear, weakening the storm as it crosses the Caribbean Sea. Bret is expected to degenerate due to the storm-shredding wind shear as it moves toward the western Caribbean, forecasters said Wednesday. Another tropical depression could form not far behind, the hurricane center said.

The cone indicating the probable track of Bret’s eye will remain south of Puerto Rico, Haiti and the Dominican Republic, but wind impacts from the storm could reach Puerto Rico by early morning Friday, and Dominican Republic and Haiti by Friday afternoon.

Forecasters urged those in Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands to be vigilant regarding the progress of the storm. Bret could present risks of flooding, hurricane-strength winds and waves and storm surge, the center’s advisory said.

“Given the uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where Bret’s associated hazards could occur,” the hurricane center said.

It is too soon to know where the system may go, and whether South Florida may feel any impacts, National Weather Service Miami meteorologist Luke Culver said.

As of 8 a.m. Wednesday, Bret was located about 645 miles east of the far eastern Caribbean, moving west at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

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The storm could produce significant rainfall. Portions of the Lesser Antilles could receive 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches from Guadeloupe southward to St. Lucia. Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines could get 2 to 4 inches. The mountainous terrain of some of these islands could result in flash flooding.

A tropical wave over the eastern-central Atlantic Ocean has a 70% chance of developing in the next 48 hours and an 80% chance within the next seven days, according to the hurricane center’s latest. update. Showers and thunderstorms with the wave started to redevelop, and it is expected to become a tropical depression as it moves west between 10 to 15 mph.

The first hurricane of the season usually forms in early to mid-August, according to the hurricane center.

Sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Atlantic, where these systems formed, are higher than normal for the month of June. Warm water can contribute to the formation of tropical storms.

“It’s definitely on the early side of things,” Culver said. “There hasn’t been too many named systems this early for the Atlantic, so the conditions just wind up just right for stuff to develop.”

Bret is the fourth named storm since record keeping began to form in the tropical Atlantic in June and the second earliest tropical storm to form in the Atlantic since record keeping began, Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University researcher who issues hurricane season forecasts, said in tweets Monday. Only one of those storms went on to become a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Arlene, which formed in early June and was short-lived, brought damaging winds and heavy rain to parts of South Florida and the Keys.

Experts predict 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes to develop this hurricane season, which runs until Nov. 30.

A strong El Niño weather pattern is expected during the peak of this season, which can decrease cyclone activity in the Atlantic because of increased vertical wind shear. But ocean temperatures are the highest on record since 1979 based on recent 30-day averages, according to the forecast from CSU released earlier this month.

The unusually warm temperatures could counteract the typically decreased activity during an El Niño.