Tropical Storm Cindy maintains strength; Tropical Storm Bret ‘barely’ a cyclone

Shira Moolten, Angie DiMichele, Victoria Ballard, South Florida Sun-Sentinel
·4 min read
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Tropical Storm Cindy remained strong Saturday morning, though not for long, forecasters say, while Tropical Storm Bret continued to weaken.

Cindy is expected to weaken over the weekend after it interacts with an upper-level shear that should last over 72 hours. The system is forecast to remain east of the northern Leeward Islands through the weekend before pivoting northwest.

“Now that Cindy is beginning to feel the effects of increased northwesterly shear, it’s likely the system has peaked in intensity with weakening not far behind,” the National Hurricane Center said in the 11 a.m. advisory Saturday.

However, there is a possibility that Cindy could form again after the next two days. It remains more likely that Cindy will dissipate, forecasters said, but “this forecast is of lower than usual confidence.”

As of 11 a.m. Saturday, Cindy was about 535 miles east of the the Lesser Antilles. It was moving northwest at 20 mph, with maximum sustained winds remaining at 60 mph, an increase from 50 mph on Friday. Tropical storm force winds extended 60 miles from Cindy’s center.

There are no warnings as Cindy’s projected path keeps it away from landfall for now.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Bret is “barely a tropical cyclone” as it heads towards the central Caribbean Sea, where it’s forecast to dissipate by Saturday night, forecasters said.

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As of 11 a.m. Saturday, Bret was located about 55 miles north-northwest of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia, moving west at 21 mph with maximum sustained winds that decreased to 45 mph from 50 mph late Friday. Tropical storm force winds extended outward up to 140 miles north of Bret’s center.

Hurricane Hunters investigating Bret on Saturday found that “the circulation is barely closed with very light winds on the system’s south side,” according to the latest advisory.

The two storm formations is a first for the month of June, according to meteorologist Philip Klotzbach at Colorado State University. It’s also the first time since 1968 there have been two named systems in June at the same time, he said.

On Thursday, Bret’s winds were just 4 mph shy of the minimum threshold for a Category 1 hurricane.

Bret brought floods, high winds and dangerous waves to parts of the Caribbean. “The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban flooding is also possible,” the hurricane center said.

“On the forecast track, the center of Bret will continue moving westward away from the Windward Islands and across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days,” the hurricane center said. “Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Bret is expected to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea by Saturday night or Sunday.”

Bret’s center is expected to move west across the eastern and central Caribbean before weakening as it encounters storm-shredding wind shear in the central Caribbean. Forecasters said the storm will likely dissipate by Sunday.

Cindy, meanwhile, is expected to gradually strengthen before weakening as it encounters the same shear as Bret, dissipating in the next four or five days.

Bret could produce significant rainfall. Portions of the eastern Caribbean could receive 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches from Guadeloupe southward to St. Vincent and the Grenadines, including Barbados. The mountainous terrain of some of these islands could result in flash flooding.

Bret and Cindy are the third and fourth official systems of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, with an unnamed January subtropical storm and early June’s Tropical Storm Arlene.

The hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

Experts predict 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes to develop this hurricane season.

A strong El Niño weather pattern is expected during the peak of this season, which can decrease cyclone activity in the Atlantic because of increased vertical wind shear. But ocean temperatures are the highest on record since 1979 based on recent 30-day averages, according to the forecast from Colorado State University released earlier this month.

The unusually warm temperatures could counteract the typically decreased activity during an El Niño.