Tropical depression forms in Gulf of Mexico
Thursday marked the first day of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, and only hours after the new tropical season began, AccuWeather meteorologists monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico raised the tropical development potential from low to high. By Thursday afternoon, the storm was organized enough for the National Hurricane Center to label it as Tropical Depression Two.
Even though the budding system in the Gulf is not heading toward the Florida Peninsula, it could still bring a number of disruptive impacts to the state through Saturday.
Since they issued their 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast in March, AccuWeather's tropical weather experts have pinpointed the zone from the central Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic as a location where early-season tropical development was likely to occur.
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Tropical Depression Two in the Gulf comes less than a week after a vigorous storm developed off the Atlantic coast of the United States. That system had some tropical characteristics and brought rough seas and drenching rain to the Carolinas during the Memorial Day weekend. Earlier in May, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) revealed that a subtropical storm developed off the northeastern coast of the United States back in January. The NHC made that discovery after forecasters conducted a reassessment of past weather patterns.
AccuWeather first began to highlight the development potential in the waters from the central Gulf to the southwestern Atlantic this past weekend. The NHC began ramping up its investigation of the system and dubbed it "Invest 91L" Thursday. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft was scheduled to investigate the disturbance later the same day, and the system was later dubbed "Tropical Depression Two."
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"The system is currently spinning in a zone of low wind shear over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and when combined with water temperatures in the low 80s F, these are factors that favor tropical development," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. Meteorologists refer to breezes that disrupt tropical development as wind shear.
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Satellite images on Thursday revealed that while most of the robust thunderstorm activity was located over the northeastern quadrant of the developing low-pressure center, there was also some evidence of weak spiral band structure to the low-flying clouds to the west and south of the center as well. As strong thunderstorm activity wrapped more around the center of the budding system, it became a tropical depression. AccuWeather feels that the window for development is quickly closing, but a tropical storm could still form if the tropical depression becomes better organized.
A tropical depression forms when an area of low pressure is accompanied by thunderstorms circulating around the center, but observed winds are below 39 mph.
Once winds reach at least 39 mph and the circulation continues, the depression is upgraded to a tropical storm by the NHC.
The first named storm of the 2023 Atlantic season will be known as Arlene.
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"Northerly steering breezes will increase and should begin to push the system southward over the eastern and central parts of the Gulf of Mexico into this weekend," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alyson Hoegg said.
"These increasing northerly winds will tend to keep the center of the storm and most of the concentrated area of rain offshore of the Florida Peninsula," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski added.
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Some impacts will occur in Florida even as the center of the storm is likely to stay offshore, however.
The most prominent impacts will range from heavy, gusty thunderstorms -mainly during the afternoon and evening hours - to building seas over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and rough surf along the beaches of Florida's western coast into this weekend.
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Since the center of the storm is no longer likely to track eastward across Florida, rainfall forecasts have been lowered compared to earlier projections this week. Still, downpours that bring a general 1-2 inches of rain are possible with 2-4 inches still not out of the question where thunderstorms occur over multiple days.
Any rainfall would generally be welcomed across much of Florida. There are widespread areas of abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions with a zone of severe drought in the west-central part of the state, according to the latest United States Drought Monitor report that was released on Thursday.
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The southerly track of the system in the Gulf of Mexico is uncommon. A path to the east or north is more typical during this time of year in this part of the Gulf.
"The system will be subject to increasing westerly wind shear as it takes a southerly path, which may prevent tropical development or cause it to diminish, should the feature develop in the first place," Pydynowski said. The window for development and/or strengthening may close on Saturday.
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If the system organizes and holds together while moving southward, there is the potential for locally heavy rain and gusty winds to reach part of western Cuba this weekend.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a broad zone of clouds and thunderstorm activity continued to erupt from the western Caribbean through parts of the Bahamas and to waters near Bermuda on Thursday.
Wind shear has been a big player in preventing tropical development over the southwestern Atlantic during the past week and is likely to continue to do so in the coming days. However, AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to closely watch this zone for the potential of weakening wind shear, which might remove an inhibiting factor for storm formation.
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