Tropical Storm Eta may be near hurricane strength when it moves near Florida; Flash floods, strong winds and dangerous storm surge expected

Tropical Storm Eta maintained its strength over the Caribbean on Sunday, but it may be near hurricane strength as it grows closer to Florida and is expected to bring dangerous storm surge, flash floods and strong winds over parts of Cuba, Florida and the Keys.

As of 7 a.m. EST, Tropical Storm Eta was about 280 miles south-southeast of Miami, Florida, and about 60 miles southwest of of Canagua, Cuba, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory.

Eta is moving north-northeast at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 115 miles from Eta’s center.

Eta is inland over east-central Cuba where it’s expected to dump anywhere between 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated totals of 25 inches, increasing the risk of landslides and life-threatening flash and river flooding.

The tropical storm is forecast to re-strengthen after it moves over the Atlantic Ocean.

"Eta is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near or over the Florida Keys,” the NHC said.

NHC Director Ken Graham urged the public to “be prepared.”

“Today is the day to get ready for this [and] start really looking at what you have to do to prepare for it,” Graham said in a Sunday morning Facebook Live.

Eta’s forecast path shows the storm moving around, away from, and then directly toward Florida over the next few days. Several watches and warnings have been issued by the National Hurricane Center and remain in effect across the Florida peninsula:

A Storm Surge Watch remains in effect for the Florida coast, from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay; and for the Florida Keys, from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach; and for the Florida Keys in the same areas under Storm Surge Watch.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida coast, from the Brevard/Volusia county line southward and around the peninsula, toward Englewood on the west coast; for the Florida Keys, from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay; for Lake Okeechobee; for parts of the northwestern Bahamas, and several Cuban provinces.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for parts of Florida’s coast from Englewood to Anna Maria Island; and the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning means storm conditions are expected within 36 hours for the area, as opposed to a Tropical Storm Watch where storm conditions appear, generally, within 48 hours.

“You can never rule Eta becoming a hurricane," Graham said, explaining why parts of Florida are under both hurricane and tropical-storm-related warnings and watches.

“On the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to move across east-central Cuba during the next few hours and then move over the Florida Straits later this morning,” the NHC said. “Eta is forecast to pass near or over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday.”

The latest NHC data shows Eta slowing down its forward speed after it turns north-northwest on Monday, followed by a turn to the west sometime Tuesday.

“You’re going to be dealing with this all week,” Graham said. “It’s going to take a lot to get this thing out of here.”

The NHC’s cone of uncertainty for Eta covers a large part of the Florida peninsula.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne said possible impacts for east Central Florida include heavy rainfall between 5 to 7 inches along the Treasure Coast, with local highs of 10 inches; very windy conditions; and hazardous beach and boating conditions.

Fox 35 meteorologist Allison Gargaro said Tropical Storm Eta may impact parts of east Central Florida with high winds and torrential rainfall.

1/4 u2033Winds could be in excess of 50 mph as well as [the] potential for torrential rain," Gargaro said Saturday. “There’s going to be downpours as we head into Sunday night and into the early morning hours of Monday.”

Forecasters warn Eta may bring potential flash, river and urban flooding to parts of South Florida and Cuba, in addition to rainfall that could reach isolated totals of 25 inches through Friday morning.

Jamaica can expect to see anywhere between 2 to 4 more inches of rain, with isolated totals of 15 inches; the Cayman Islands and Cuba are projected to see between 5 to 10 inches, with isolated totals of 25 inches; and the Bahamas may endure between 5 to 10 inches, with isolated totals of 15 inches, due to Eta.

Eta made landfall in Nicaragua as a Category 4 major hurricane but degenerated once its center became disrupted by Central America’s mountainous terrain, causing it to weaken into a tropical depression Wednesday evening.

Eta redeveloped into a tropical storm on Saturday morning in the Caribbean, as it grew closer to the Cayman Islands, Cuba, the Bahamas and, ultimately, Florida.

Eta’s forecast track faced uncertainty earlier in the week due to Central America’s mountainous environment, where it degenerated into a tropical depression. Storm models showed various predictions of where Eta would end up after thrashing the region.

Eta’s turtle-like speed caused great problems in Nicaragua on Wednesday by bringing heavy rains and causing deadly landslides while drenching the country’s east and north of neighboring Nicaragua.

Governments in Central America worked to tally the displaced and dead, and recover bodies from landslides and flooding that claimed dozens of lives from Guatemala to Panama.

It will be days before the true toll of Eta is known. Its torrential rains battered economies already strangled by the COVID-19 pandemic, took all from those who had little and laid bare the shortcomings of governments unable to aid their citizens and pleading for international assistance.

In Guatemala, the first army brigade reached a massive landslide Friday morning in the central mountains where an estimated 150 homes were buried Thursday. They had not recovered any bodies yet, but said that more than 100 people were believed to be missing, the army announced. In a news conference, President Alejandro Giammattei said he believed there were at least 100 dead there in San Cristobal Verapaz, but noted that was still unconfirmed.

“The panorama is complicated in that area,” he said, noting that rescuers were struggling to access the site.

The death toll in Honduras rose to at least 21 people Friday, confirmed by local authorities, but the country’s emergency management agency reported only eight.

“We know there are a lot of dead people, we’ve seen them, but until we receive official information we can’t certify them,” explained Marvin Aparicio, head of the agency’s incident command system. “In the coming hours, we are going to start to see, to our regret, Dante-esque scenes of people found dead” as floodwaters recede.

The government estimates more than 1.6 million have been affected. It said rescues were happening Friday in San Pedro Sula and La Lima, but the need was great and resources limited.

“I would say the national capacity has been overwhelmed by the size of the impact we are seeing,” said Maite Matheu, Honduras director for the international humanitarian organization CARE. The group was using its network of contacts in Honduras to identify the hardest-hit areas and catalogue their most-pressing needs.

Eta is the 12th hurricane of the year. Only three other full Atlantic seasons on record have seen more than 12 hurricanes: the 1969 season saw 12, 2005 saw 15, and 2010 saw 12, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. Klotzbach also said Eta joined Hurricane Laura as the strongest storms of this season.

It is the 28th named storm of the year, tying the 2005 season record for 28 storms of tropical storm strength or greater.

The NHC is also tracking a broad nontropical low pressure system in the Atlantic Ocean as of 7 a.m. EST Sunday.

Located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores, there is a chance for formation of a system with subtropical characteristics by early next week as it moves slowly eastward or east-northeastward over the northeastern Atlantic. The NHC gives it a 20% chance to become a subtropical depression or subtropical storm in the next five days.

If it did spin up to at least 39 mph, it would be named Subtropical Storm Theta. Its formation would take the 2020 hurricane season further into a record-breaking waters, with the most named storms in a single season. Eta’s development tied the current season with 2005 1/4 u2032s record of 28 named storms.

Staff writers Joe Mario Pedersen, Garfield Hylton, Richard Tribou, David Harris and Katie Rice contributed to this report, as did The Associated Press.

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