After the Caribbean, where will Fiona head next?
AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting Tropical Storm Fiona to strengthen into a hurricane and unleash life-threatening rain for several Caribbean islands into early week, including Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic, but after Fiona is finished pounding those places with wind and heavy rain, what will its next moves be?
Following the path of many other hurricanes, forecasters now expected Fiona to remain offshore, rather than approach the East Coast.
After Fiona encounters the rugged mountainous terrain of the northern Caribbean islands, which could cause it to lose some wind intensity for a time, the storm will move into an environment favorable for restrengthening. The system will move over bath-warm waters, with sea-surface temperatures in the mid-80s F, as Fiona tracks north-northwest near the Bahamas early this week.
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A satellite image from Saturday morning, Sept. 17, 2022, shows Fiona swirling over the Caribbean Sea. (AccuWeather) |
There is a significant chance that Fiona may ramp up to a hurricane prior to passing through the northern Caribbean islands.
"There will likely be significant disruptive wind shear in this area at times, but as the system moves along in the same general direction as the shear, its negative impacts could be diminished and that can allow Fiona to strengthen," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck said.
If Fiona becomes a hurricane, it would be only the third of the 2022 Atlantic season. Hurricane Danielle, a storm that peaked at hurricane intensity twice over its lifetime over the open waters of the North Atlantic in early September before tracking toward Europe as a tropical rainstorm. Earl was the second tropical storm to strengthen into hurricane force. It reached Category 2 strength with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph over the central Atlantic in early September.
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The track Fiona will take this week into next weekend will largely depend on the behavior of the jet stream over the continental United States. While a track toward the East Coast was initially feared, a dip in the jet stream is expected to steer the hurricane eastward, and away from the coastline.
But complicating matters further will be another weather feature over the U.S. that could influence Fiona's movement. That feature will be another southward plunge of the jet stream. If that stays far enough west over the U.S., the window would be open for Fiona to move farther to the northwest and potentially closer to the coast. While the United States would likely stay out of harm's way, this could but Fiona on a path toward portions of Atlantic Canada.
On the other hand, should that trough in the jet stream race along, it too could sweep Fiona farther out to sea over the North Atlantic.
People in Bermuda and Atlantic Canada, as well as shipping and fishing interests, should monitor Fiona's progress, AccuWeather forecasters say.
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Even though Fiona should stay away from U.S. soil and stay well offshore, the action of strong winds over the ocean will cause waves to form and extend outward hundreds of miles in the form of large swells. As these swells reach the coastal waters of the eastern U.S. by next weekend, the surf can become dangerous for swimmers with the potential for frequent and strong rip currents.
The southeast U.S. was brushed by two weak tropical storms, Bonnie and Colin, earlier in the season, but the country has dodged any more significant impacts. Hurricane Earl was the closest approach of a hurricane so far this season, and it stayed about 800 miles away from the East coast. Still, the storm stirred dangerous surf and rip currents. At least two fatalities were reported in rip currents as Earl spun well out over the Atlantic.
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