Fred picks up speed as tropical storm warning issued for the Florida Keys

Tropical Depression Fred is close to regaining its strength as a tropical storm, spurring a tropical storm warning for the Florida Keys, the National Hurricane Center said Friday morning.

The warning is in effect from the Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, and the Florida Bay.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef.

Forecasters say Fred remains poorly organized, but the storm is expected to become a tropical storm again as it nears the Keys and South Florida on Saturday.

At 5 a.m., Fred was 125 miles south-southwest of Great Exuma Island with maximum sustained winds at 35 mph. It was moving west-northwest at 10 mph.

The depression is expected to gain power again, but it should be a slow climb between now and this weekend when it is expected to cruise along Florida’s west coast.

The cone of uncertainty saw a continued shift west, although the effects could still be felt with most rainfall usually to the northeast of the tropical system’s center.

Long-range forecasts have Fred parked off Key West on Saturday with a restored tropical storm status and 45 mph sustained winds and gusts up to 50 mph. It’s then projected to grow in the Gulf of Mexico off the Florida Coast with 60 mph sustained winds and 70 mph gusts. A potential Monday landfall is predicted in the Florida panhandle near Eastpoint.

A tropical storm watch went up Thursday for the Florida Keys and part of the Florida Gulf coast, as Fred continued plodding toward the state.

A watch means tropical storm conditions, with winds of at least 39 mph, are possible within 48 hours. More serious is a warning, which means they’re expected, not just possible, within 36 hours.

The watch covered the Florida Keys from Key Largo to the Dry Tortugas and extended up Florida’s Gulf coast to Bonita Beach south of Fort Myers. Tropical storm conditions could start Friday night and go into Saturday, with the storm expected to go up Florida’s Gulf coast.

Fred is still expected to regain tropical-storm status, but the forecast now calls for it to be much weaker than earlier expected, as it runs into wind shear that will disrupt its structure.

Even without a direct hit from the storm, much of South Florida faces the possibility of tropical-storm force winds.

An area from the southern part of Palm Beach County south to the end of the Florida peninsula could experience winds of 39-57 mph Saturday that could down trees and power lines, the National Weather Service said in an update released Thursday evening.

Another threat will be flooding, with three to seven inches of rain possible across South Florida.

The storm is likely to produce winds of 40 mph when approaches Florida, barely over the threshold for a tropical storm. Its winds are now forecast to top out in three days at 50 mph, far lower than originally predicted.

At 11 p.m. the storm was 450 miles east-southeast of Key West and 200 miles southeast of the Bahamas, moving west-northwest at 9 mph, having sped up from 7 mph.

Tropical storms and hurricanes, which draw fuel from the warm water of the open ocean, decay over land. This one, after taking a beating crossing the Dominican Republic and Haiti, is now poised to ride the northern coast of Cuba, which could prevent it from regaining strength, said Robert Molleda of the National Weather Service.

After that, it will cross the Florida Straits, a strip of open water that could allow it to regain tropical storm power, which means wind speeds of at least 39 mph.

“There’s certainly a chance that this may never fully recover,” Molleda said. “There’s also a chance, reflected in the forecast, that it could recover enough organization to become a tropical storm over the Florida Straits tomorrow night and then near the South Florida peninsula on Saturday.”

The storm weakened to a tropical depression overnight, and much of South Florida moved just outside the cone of possible paths of the storm’s center, which show the storm most likely heading for the Gulf of Mexico. But the forecast path still includes much of the southern part of the peninsula, and tropical storm conditions can extend far outside the cone, which tracks only the course of the center of the storm.

If former Tropical Storm Fred affects South Florida, the worst day will probably be Saturday, with the possibilities ranging from blustery, rainy weather to a full-blown tropical storm. The region also faces a tornado risk, which is highest for the northeast side of the storm, the side most likely to approach southeast Florida.

What happens Saturday will depend on whether the storm leans into the northern end of its projected path, which would bring it to South Florida, or the southern end, which would take it through the Gulf of Mexico. And it depends on the strength of the storm itself after it runs the Caribbean’s gantlet of mountainous islands and wind shear.

Although Fred could miss South Florida, another potential storm is following in its path. A patch of stormy weather in the central Atlantic has been given a 70% chance of forming a tropical cyclone, the catch-all term for rotating storm systems that range from depressions to hurricanes. It’s expected to reach the eastern edge of the Caribbean by next weekend.

This storm appears likely to follow a similar path to Fred’s but veering more to the west, said Dan Kottlowski, senior meteorologist for AccuWeather. That would take it toward the Gulf of Mexico and away from South Florida, although with the storm so far away, any track forecasts carry a lot of uncertainty.

The map of possible paths for the storm’s center moved South Florida from the center to the right edge of the cone of concern. The cone now shows a greater chance the storm that was once Fred will head into the Gulf of Mexico.

If the storm reaches South Florida, winds are most likely to arrive late Friday night or early Saturday, but they could reach the area sooner. There’s unusually high uncertainty about both the forecast track and likely strength of the storm, the weather service said.

Fred is the sixth named storm of the season and the first since Hurricane Elsa moved through the Gulf of Mexico in early July. Fred also marks the first storm of the hurricane season’s busiest period, which runs from mid-August, reaches a peak around Sept. 10 and winds down in October. The next storm name after Fred is Grace.

Forecasters expect this to be an above-average hurricane season, with NOAA predicting up to 10 hurricanes by the time the season ends Nov. 30.

Although Fred is forecast to strengthen once it clears the islands of the Caribbean, an upper-level low near Florida in the next couple of days could bring increasing west-southwesterly wind shear, which would limit Fred’s intensification, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Sun Sentinel staff writer Angie DiMichele contributed to this report.

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