Tropical Storm Harold forms as it heads toward Texas; forecasters watching 4 other systems

Bill Kearney, Robin Webb, Angie DiMichele, South Florida Sun-Sentinel
·4 min read

Tropical Storm Harold formed early Tuesday as it headed for a projected landfall midday Tuesday in south Texas. A tropical storm watch was in effect early Tuesday from the Rio Grande to Port Arthur.

The National Hurricane Center also monitoring Tropical Storm Franklin in the Caribbean and three other systems in the Atlantic Ocean, two of which had been tropical storms Gert and Emily earlier this week. Forecasters are continuing to watch for redevelopment of the remnants of Emily.

Franklin will veer north toward Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and has prompted tropical storm warnings for their entire southern coasts. The National Hurricane Center also warned of potential flooding there, and in Puerto Rico. Once Franklin is back over water, the system could become the second Atlantic hurricane of the season.

The fifth system, in the Atlantic off Africa’s west coast, will likely become a tropical depression later in the week.

None of these systems are currently projected to head to Florida.

Tropical Storm Harold

As of 2 a.m. Tuesday, Harold was moving rapidly west, at 18 mph, in the western Gulf of Mexico toward the south Texas coast. Tropical-storm-force winds had developed early Tuesday, reaching up to 40 mph. Heavy rain, potential flooding and potential tornadoes were forecast for southern Texas.

As of 2 a.m., the storm was located about 195 miles east-southeast of Port Mansfield, Texas, and is expected to move inland over southern Texas by midday Tuesday. Flash flooding will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

The storm will produce rainfall ranging from 3 to 7 inches in parts of Texas and Mexico. The NHC also warned of inland flooding and flash flooding in the mountainous terrain of Mexico, in watersheds that flow into the Rio Grande River on the U.S.-Mexico border.

If storm surge coincides with high tide, water could reach 1 to 3 feet about ground in some areas. Large swells could cause life-threatening rip current conditions.

Tropical Storm Franklin

As of 2 a.m. Tuesday, Tropical Storm Franklin was located about 265 miles south of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, with maximum sustained winds at 50 mph and tropical-storm-force winds up to 70 miles from its center. Franklin is expected to turn north Tuesday with its center reaching the southern coast of Haiti and the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday.

Franklin likely will hit Haiti and the Dominican Republic as a tropical storm, but could become a hurricane Saturday after it moves northeast past the island and out to sea, according to hurricane center estimates. Its eventual path at the end of the week remains uncertain.

Tropical storm warnings were issued for the southern coasts of both Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with expected storm surge of 1-3 feet. A tropical storm watch was in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic and areas of the Turks and Caicos Islands.

The system could bring up to 15 inches of rain to Haiti and the Dominican Republic and up to 6 inches to Puerto Rico, according to the latest estimates. The hurricane center warned of potential flash and urban flooding.

Tropical Depression Gert

Gert formed early Monday, hours after two other tropical storms — Franklin and Emily formed Sunday.

However, by Monday evening, Gert had weakened from a tropical storm to a tropical depression. As of 2 a.m. Tuesday, Gert was maintaining maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and was moving west-northwest at 9 mph about 320 miles east-southeast of the Caribbean.

Forecasters expect Gert to weaken to a remnant and dissipate Tuesday due to a dry environment and strong upper level winds. The system will also likely turn north, away from the Caribbean.

African coastal system

The disturbance a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands off Africa’s west coast is likely to become a tropical depression later this week as it moves west-northwest across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

As of 2 a.m. Tuesday, it was given a 30% chance of developing within 48 hours and 60% within seven days.

Remnant Emily

The former Tropical Storm Emily was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone Monday morning. Emily’s remnants were over the central tropical Atlantic early Tuesday, and forecasters said conditions could be favorable for some redevelopment later this week or weekend, though the odds are low.

None of the systems is currently expected to reach South Florida, said National Weather Service meteorologist George Rizzuto, though such forecasts can change.

“At this time we’re not seeing any signs that any of these are going to be able to make it all the way to us,” Rizzuto said.

The National Hurricane Center has been predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.

While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.

The next named storm to form would be Idalia.

The NHC, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has forecast 14-21 named storms, including 6-11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.