It definitely won't be a beach weekend. Or one to do much of anything outside in New Jersey, thanks to a system that's rolling toward the U.S. coast.
The system — called Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen — is expected to become a tropical storm by the time it reaches the coast of North Carolina Friday night or early Saturday. A tropical storm warning was in effect Thursday evening from Cape Fear, North Carolina to southern Delaware.
On Thursday afternoon the storm was moving north about 355 miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina and had sustained winds of 35 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The storm should make for rough going along most of the New Jersey and Long Island coastline Saturday, with less of an impact in northern New Jersey.
How much rain, wind for NJ?
The New Jersey shore should get up to 3.5 inches of rain, while northern New Jersey should see no more than 2¼ inches, according to the National Weather Service. The rainfall may produce localized urban and small stream flooding.
At the Jersey Shore, expect wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph Saturday into Saturday evening, with gusts as high as 60 mph along the southern coast, said Matt Brudy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service's station in Mount Holly. The rain will likely begin late Friday night, with the bulk on Saturday.
Coastal flooding, beach erosion
Because the winds will be coming from the northeast, they will be pushing water toward the New Jersey coast, causing the potential for significant coastal flooding and some beach erosion, Brudy said. Again, the worst will be along the southern coast down to Cape May and into Delaware Bay, peaking with high tide Saturday afternoon.
Swells produced by the storm will likely create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Those prolonged winds from the northeast will pile water back into New Jersey's coastal bays, which will have trouble draining for several days.
Outlook for Bergen, Passaic counties
Northern New Jersey could see minor coastal flooding, and New York Harbor may just hit the benchmark for minor flooding, said Joe Pollina, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service's station in Upton, New York. He said those winds out of the northeast will also cause water to pile up in western Long Island Sound, causing potential shoreline flooding.
Northern New Jersey could see gusts over the weekend up to 30 mph.
Things should start to calm down late Sunday.
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Tropical storm on East Coast to bring flooding, winds to NJ