Hurricane Ian's latest path: Florida landfall forecast for Wednesday afternoon

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Hurricane Ian strengthened to a Category 3 storm on Tuesday as it made landfall in Cuba.

Next, Ian heads to Florida. Landfall is expected late afternoon Wednesday between Tampa and Fort Myers, though track, timing and intensity could still change.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency.


Latest Developments


Sep 27, 1:05 PM

FEMA: 'Do not underestimate' Ian

Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell warned Tuesday, "Floridians are going to experience the impacts from the storm for a very long time."

PHOTO: Workers board up the windows on the historical Henry B. Plant Hall on the campus of the University of Tampa ahead of Hurricane Ian, on Sept. 27, 2022, in Tampa, Fla. (Chris O'Meara/AP)
PHOTO: Workers board up the windows on the historical Henry B. Plant Hall on the campus of the University of Tampa ahead of Hurricane Ian, on Sept. 27, 2022, in Tampa, Fla. (Chris O'Meara/AP)

"Our biggest concern as we wait for this storm to make landfall is storm surge," Criswell said. "In 2018, when Hurricane Michael impacted the Florida Panhandle, there were five recorded fatalities as a result of storm surge. So therefore, if people are told to evacuate by their local officials, please listen to them. The decision you choose to make may mean the difference between life and death."

She said a search and rescue coordination group has been activated, including members from FEMA’s urban search and rescue teams, the Coast Guard, the Department of Defense and the Department of the Interior.

The Red Cross has established 29 shelters and is prepared to open 60 more shelters if needed, she said.

Criswell stressed, “To those who may be watching at home, get ready and do not underestimate the potential that the storm can bring.”


Sep 27, 12:25 PM

Orlando’s airport closing Wednesday

The Orlando International Airport said operations will stop at 10:30 a.m. Wednesday.

The St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport is closing at 1 p.m. Tuesday while Tampa International Airport is suspending flights at 5 p.m. Tuesday.


Sep 27, 12:03 PM

Coastal Georgia, South Carolina under tropical storm watches

As Ian moves north over Florida, tropical storm force winds will reach coastal Georgia and South Carolina.

Tropical storm watches have been issued for Savannah and near Charleston.


Sep 27, 12:17 PM

Landfall in Florida forecast for Wednesday afternoon

Hurricane Ian’s track is moving south, with landfall forecast for late afternoon Wednesday between Tampa and Fort Myers as a Category 3 storm.

The storm surge forecast for Tampa Bay has dropped from 10 feet to 8 feet. But now the predicted storm surge for Fort Myers has increased and could be as high as 12 feet.


Sep 27, 10:15 AM

About 2.5 million Floridians under evacuation orders

As Hurricane Ian heads toward Florida, officials’ main concern is the threat of storm surge and catastrophic flooding, Florida. Gov. Ron DeSantis said Tuesday.

PHOTO: People place shutters on their homes as they prepare for the possible arrival of Hurricane Ian on Sept. 27, 2022 in St Petersburg, Fla. Ian is expected in the Tampa Bay area Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
PHOTO: People place shutters on their homes as they prepare for the possible arrival of Hurricane Ian on Sept. 27, 2022 in St Petersburg, Fla. Ian is expected in the Tampa Bay area Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

DeSantis reiterated that there is still time to prepare or evacuate.

About 2.5 million Floridians are under mandatory or voluntary evacuation orders, he said.

-ABC News’ Alex Faul


Sep 27, 9:41 AM

Tornado watches issued in South Florida

Tornado watches have been issued in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Naples and Key West as Hurricane Ian approaches.

The watches are in effect until 5 p.m. Tuesday.

PHOTO: A tornado watch has been issued for South Florida through 5 p.m. Tuesday as Hurricane Ian closes in on Florida. (ABC News)
PHOTO: A tornado watch has been issued for South Florida through 5 p.m. Tuesday as Hurricane Ian closes in on Florida. (ABC News)

-ABC News’ Max Golembo


Sep 27, 8:25 AM

Latest forecast shows landfall in Tampa Bay area

The forecast has shifted significantly east, now with landfall expected in the Tampa Bay area Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as a Category 3 hurricane.

This would mark Tampa Bay’s first direct hit from a major hurricane since 1921.

Slow-moving Ian is expected to drop more than 15 inches of rain from Tampa to Orlando.

Major flooding is possible in Orlando, Tampa and St. Petersburg.

-ABC News’ Max Golembo


Sep 27, 9:21 AM

Hurricane Ian makes landfall after strengthening to major storm

Hurricane Ian made landfall over western Cuba early on Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center said.

PHOTO: A view of the Morro castle in Havana, Cuba, Sept. 27, 2022, during the passage of hurricane Ian. (Yamil Lage/AFP via Getty Images)
PHOTO: A view of the Morro castle in Havana, Cuba, Sept. 27, 2022, during the passage of hurricane Ian. (Yamil Lage/AFP via Getty Images)
PHOTO: A satellite image shows the eye of Hurricane Ian as it makes landfall in Cuba on Sept. 27, 2022. (ABC News)
PHOTO: A satellite image shows the eye of Hurricane Ian as it makes landfall in Cuba on Sept. 27, 2022. (ABC News)

“Satellite and radar data indicate that the center of Ian has made landfall just southwest of the town of La Coloma in the Pinar Del Rio Province of Cuba at 4:30 a.m.,” the center said.

Ian’s winds at landfall were estimated at a maximum of 125 mph, making the storm a Category 3 hurricane.

PHOTO: People walk and bike under the rain ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Ian in Coloma, Cuba, on Sept. 26, 2022. (Alexandre Meneghini/Reuters)
PHOTO: People walk and bike under the rain ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Ian in Coloma, Cuba, on Sept. 26, 2022. (Alexandre Meneghini/Reuters)

-ABC News’ Max Golembo


Sep 26, 11:35 PM

Ian strengthens as winds grow to 105 mph

Hurricane Ian continued to intensify Monday night, with maximum sustained winds now at 105 mph.

The hurricane is about 105 miles east-southeast of the western tip of Cuba, which is expected to see significant wind and storm surge impacts soon.

The storm is expected to become a major hurricane overnight or Tuesday morning.

-ABC News' Melissa Griffin


Sep 26, 9:47 PM

Tampa International Airport to close as Ian approaches

Tampa International Airport will stop all operations starting 5 p.m. Tuesday to secure its airfield and terminals ahead of Hurricane Ian's expected landfall later this week.

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