Tropical Storm Idalia forecast to become major hurricane near western Cuba

Tropical Storm Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane when it nears western Cuba later today, the National Hurricane Center said.

Life-threatening storm surges and dangerous winds are becoming increasingly likely for portions of Florida.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 33 counties on Sunday night as the Florida Division of Emergency Management mobilized response personnel to deal with the storm.

“These things can wobble, so Floridians along our Gulf Coast should be vigilant even if you’re currently outside the [forecast zone] cone,” DeSantis said from the Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee. He said 1,100 National Guard members had been mobilized and command centers set up to deal with power outages and other damage.

In its 8 a.m. advisory, Idalia has sustained winds of 65 mph with higher gusts located about 90 miles south of the western tip of Cuba heading north at 8 mph. Its tropical-storm-force winds extend out 70 miles.

“On the forecast track, Idalia is forecast to increase in forward speed and turn north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday,” Blake said. “Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later today and a dangerous major hurricane over northeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday.”

It’s projected to continue north over Cuba tonight and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday. The latest forecast has it growing in strength to 115 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 140 mph by 2 a.m. Wednesday parked off the coast of Florida north of Tampa with the projected path that has a cone of uncertainty spread from Tampa north to Tallahassee.

“The bottom line is that rapid intensification is becoming increasingly likely before landfall,” Blake said. “It should be emphasized that only a small deviation in the track could cause a big change in Idalia’s landfall location in Florida due to the paralleling track to the west coast of the state.”

A hurricane warning is in place for Pinar del Rio Cuba with a tropical storm warning for the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel, the Isle of Youth, Cuba and Dry Tortugas, Florida.

A hurricane watch is in effect from Englewood to Indian Pass, Florida including Tampa Bay with a tropical storm watch from south of Englewood to Chokoloskee, Florida and from the lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge.

A storm surge watch is also in effect from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay.

Storm surge was the driving force that led to the deadly effects of last year’s Hurricane Ian that made landfall in southwest Florida.

The NHC forecasts surge could be from 7-11 feet higher than normal for Florida’s Gulf Coast from the Aucilla River near Tallahassee south to Chassahowitzka in Citrus County, from 6-9 feet higher from Chassahowitzka south to the Anclote River near Tarpon Springs, and 4-7 feet from the Anclote River south to Longboat Key as well as Tampa Bay. Smaller storm surge is expected further south in Southwest Florida and the Florida Keys as well as farther north and west along the Florida Panhandle.

“The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline,” according to the forecast.

Unlike Ian, the storm is expected to move quicker over the state, but rainfall totals could still being 4-8 inches with some areas with as much as 12 inches across ports of Florida’s west coast and the Florida Panhandle as well as southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas that could lead to urban and flash flooding.

John Pendergrast, forecaster with the National Weather Service in Melbourne, said Central Florida will start to feel Tropical Storm Idalia’s effects on Tuesday and Wednesday.

“For Central Florida, that means that we’re going to have a threat of some heavy rain, squall conditions, so when we say that, gusts with possibly the tropical storm force of 35 to 45 miles per hour and squalls, especially on Wednesday,” Pendergrast said.

Pendergrast said the region also may face the possibility of tornadoes.

“When we’ve had similar systems pass west of the area we had tornadoes at times occur in Central Florida,” Pendergrast said.

Central Florida residents should start making hurricane preparations and secure loose items outside of their homes and prepare for possible local flood, he said.

He agreed that residents should remain vigilant and understand that the track and intensity of the storm could change at any moment.

“Small deviations on the track could bring higher effects to the area so we’re not … firmly set on the track for the hurricane yet or the intensity,” Pendergrast said.