Will Tropical Storm Isaias impact Hampton Roads and the Outer Banks? We’re in waiting mode.
The active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is continuing with Tropical Storm Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs) which has formed south of Puerto Rico.
By Monday night, the storm could bring rain and wind to Hampton Roads, said Jeff Orrock, the meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service’s office in Wakefield.
As of 5 a.m. Thursday, forecasts show Isaias moving over Haiti and the Dominican Republic later Thursday before approaching Florida. Isaias is forecasted to approach the Northwest Bahamas or southern Florida Friday night or Saturday.
The National Weather Service model shows Isaias moving through Florida and into Georgia and then through central and eastern Carolinas.
“The question becomes how close to the Florida coast it comes,” said Orrock. “If it stays too close to the Florida coast, it’s going to continue to struggle. If it can stay a little further out into the ocean, it’ll have a better chance at trying to get some intensification.”
Orrock said the closer Isaias tracks to land, the weaker Isaias will be. If it tracks more to the east, it has a chance to become a little stronger.
Right now, any impact on the Hampton Roads area would be late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.
“It definitely bears watching. We definitely could see some heavy rains. Some pretty gusty winds from this system,” Orrock said. “Right now it’s kind of a sit and wait. We’ve got time to kind of watch this a little bit.”
Orrock said people have the weekend and some of Monday to get items like boats ready for potential impacts.
Some of the main impacts Orrock said people should think some potential impacts like wind and rain, and maybe storm surge.
“The good news is that the storm system will be moving quickly,” Orrock said. “So when it does come up to our neck of the woods, depending on where it tracks, it should be in and out pretty quickly. This shouldn’t be a long duration storm.”
Because of the potential for the storm to move through quickly with the current scenario, Orrock doesn’t think it will be a huge storm surge event.
“Right now, it’s just kind of watch and see how the forecast plays out,” Orrock said. “Don’t just ignore it because we could definitely see issues from the storm. Enough where folks want to take some precautions.”
Isaias is the third storm that will affect parts of the East Coast this hurricane season.
In May, Tropical Storm Arthur brought heavy rains and winds to the east coast of North Carolina, and Tropical Storm Bertha came a week later — forming off of Charleston before hitting inland North Carolina.
The 2020 hurricane season was predicted to be above average with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warning in May that there could be up to 19 named storms with up to 10 potentially becoming hurricanes.
According to NOAA, an average hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through the end of November, will have 12 name storms and six hurricanes.
Moss Brennan, mobrennan@virginiamedia.com.
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