Tropical Storm Karl hangs on to TS status, hurricane center sets eyes on east Atlantic threat
Tropical Storm Karl is inching toward Mexico’s coast Friday morning and could lose its tropical storm status before landfall. Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a new threat in the eastern Atlantic.
As of the NHC’s 5 a.m. update, Karl was located about 115 miles north-northwest of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, moving south-southeast at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds at 40 mph.
The storm, which will not impact Florida, is not expected to strengthen significantly before it reaches the Tabasco or Veracruz states of Mexico late Friday night or early Saturday. It will weaken once it makes landfall. The NHC is confident that Karl’s strength will likely not change before landfall but hasn’t ruled out the possibility of the storm becoming a depression before arriving on the coast.
Karl was less organized Thursday morning and is expected to keep weakening as it moves toward the Bay of Campeche. Vertical wind shear is diminishing the storm, but Karl is expected to hang onto its tropical storm status for the next two days as it crawls toward Mexico. Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with up to 10 inches in some areas, across portions of Veracruz and Tabasco states in Mexico from Friday into Saturday night, according to the NHC.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the coast of Mexico from Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen.
“After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate just after 72 hours,” said Jack Beven, an NHC specialist.
Meanwhile, the NHC is watching a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. The wave is in an ideal environment for slow tropical growth as it moves west at about 5 to 10 mph. The wave has a 20% chance of developing in the next five days and a 10% chance of developing in the next two days.
As of this Sunday, the 2022 season will officially be over the hump of the “peak of season” which typically occurs between mid-August to mid-October and is known as the most active time for tropical development as the winter season slowly creeps over the Atlantic, cooling sea-surface temperatures and making the environment less suitable for hurricanes.
Despite an active September, hurricane season is moving on with less aggressive production than otherwise predicted before the season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its preseason forecast; and later reaffirmed in August, that the 2022 season would likely see an above-average tropical production with 14 to 21 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes. An average season has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
So far, the season has 11 named storms and five hurricanes. Realistically, there’s still time for more tropical production to occur, but the window is closing. Additionally, the season is moving a little slow based on historical records. By Oct. 11 the NHC typically has recorded 12 named storms, and six hurricanes by Oct. 15.
Even if hurricane production is unlikely at this time of the year, it’s not impossible. In 2020, the busiest hurricane season on record, Hurricane Iota, a Category 5 major hurricane, formed in November — an unprecedented time for major storm formation — and brought devastating wind and rain through Central America
Floridians are still reeling from the damage left behind by Hurricane Ian, but experts say they should remain vigilant of the tropics as Hurricane season doesn’t end until Nov. 30.
