Tropical Storm Karl moving slowly and maintaining strength in Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Karl is maintaining 45-mph winds as it moves slowly in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

While most models show the system moving into Mexico, a couple of models predict the storm will move toward Houston or even New Orleans.

At this time, forecasters are expecting Karl to run into environmental conditions that will inhibit development later in the week, preventing it from becoming a hurricane. However, some strengthening is in the forecast for today.

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Toward the end of the week, wind shear is forecast to increase as a cold front drops into the Gulf of Mexico, according to AccuWeather.

Karl is expected to move very little in the near future and does not appear at this time to be a direct threat to the United States.

However, AccuWeather forecasters warned steering breezes can change and residents along the Gulf Coast should stay informed.

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The Hurricane Center currently is showing no other systems on its maps, although it is keeping an eye on four tropical waves in the Atlantic basin.

The next named storm will be Lisa.

Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 11 a.m. Oct. 12:

Tropical Storm Karl

Tropical Storm Karl 11 a.m. Oct. 12, 2022.
Tropical Storm Karl 11 a.m. Oct. 12, 2022.
  • Location: 878 miles southwest of Fort Myers; 200 miles north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico

  • Maximum wind speed: 45 mph

  • Direction:  north at 3 mph

  • Next advisory: 2 p.m.

At 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located 878 miles southwest of Fort Myers or 200 miles north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico.

Karl is moving toward the north near 3 mph, and this motion is expected to continue through today. A slow drift to the south and south-southeast is expected to begin this evening and a faster generally southward motion is forecast by Thursday morning.

On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the watch area by Friday.

Tropical Storm Karl spaghetti models 11 a.m. Oct. 12, 2022.
Tropical Storm Karl spaghetti models 11 a.m. Oct. 12, 2022.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft support maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, with higher gusts.

Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours followed by slight weakening before landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.

What else is out there and where are they?

Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave over west-central Africa is approaching the coastline of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia.  This wave is expected to move over the Atlantic Ocean Wednesday.

Tropical wave 2: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near the Cabo Verde Islands and is slowly moving west. It's bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the  southern Cabo Verde Islands.

Tropical wave 3: A central Atlantic tropical wave is moving west around 17 mph.

Tropical wave 4: An eastern Caribbean tropical wave stretches from Anguilla south into northeastern Venezuela. It's moving west at 17 mph. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are reported over central Venezuela.

Who is likely to be impacted?

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Karl 11 a.m. Oct. 12, 2022.
Satellite view of Tropical Storm Karl 11 a.m. Oct. 12, 2022.

Tropical Storm Karl: Karl does not appear to pose a direct threat to the U.S. at this time.

Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz and Tabasco states in Mexico.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting on Thursday night or Friday.

Tropical waves: It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the tropical waves.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared during what's expected to be an active hurricane season.

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA
Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA

Although the season has gotten off to a quiet start, the peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Weather watches and warnings issued for your area

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Tropical forecast over next five days

See the National Hurricane Center's five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.

Excessive rainfall forecast

What's out there?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

What's next?

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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Tropical Storm Karl: Where will it go? Is Florida in its path?