Tropical Storm Karl could bring ‘life-threatening’ flash floods, hurricane center watching eastern Atlantic threat
The National Hurricane Center warned Friday afternoon Mexico residents may face heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Karl that could result in life-threatening mudslides and flash flooding as the storm crawls closer to making landfall.
This is despite the storm getting weaker as it struggles to generate more organized convection as it nears the Bay of Campeche in Mexico, the NHC said in its 8 p.m. update. Karl is located about 65 miles northwest of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, moving south-southwest at 5 mph with maximum sustained winds at 40 mph.
An Air Force reconnaissance flight to investigate Karl was scheduled for Friday evening, the NHC said.
The storm, which will not impact Florida, is not expected to strengthen significantly before it reaches the Tabasco or Veracruz states of Mexico late Friday night or early Saturday. It’s expected to dissipate by Sunday. The NHC is confident that Karl’s strength will likely not change before landfall but hasn’t ruled out the possibility of the storm becoming a depression before arriving on the coast.
Drier air in the area is plaguing Karl and should continue to do so well into Saturday, but Karl is expected to hang onto its tropical storm status for the next day as it crawls toward Mexico. Little change in strength is projected before its landfall, but small fluctuations in intensity are possible, said Brad Reinhart, an NHC specialist.
“Karl is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico as a tropical storm late tonight, then quickly weaken to a depression and dissipate over the terrain of southern Mexico by late Saturday or Saturday night,” Reinhart said.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Mexico from Alvarado to Sabancuy.
Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with up to 10 inches in some areas, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and Oaxaca states in Mexico from Friday into Saturday night, according to the NHC. Heavy rains could bring flash floods and mudslides in higher terrain, Reinhart warned.
Meanwhile, the NHC is watching a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands which produced a broad area of showers and thunderstorms that have since decreased. Forecasters said the wave’s environmental conditions “appear marginally conducive for gradual development” as it moves west at about 10 mph. The wave has a 10% chance of developing in the next two to five days.
The wave will likely face upper-level winds by next week diminishing its chances of becoming the next tropical storm.
If it does develop, the tropical storm would receive the name, Lisa.
As of this Sunday, the 2022 season will officially be over the hump of the “peak of season” which typically occurs between mid-August to mid-October and is known as the most active time for tropical development as the winter season slowly creeps over the Atlantic, cooling sea-surface temperatures and making the environment less suitable for hurricanes.
Despite an active September, hurricane season is moving on with less aggressive production than otherwise predicted before the season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its preseason forecast; and later reaffirmed in August, that the 2022 season would likely see an above-average tropical production with 14 to 21 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes. An average season has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
So far, the season has 11 named storms and five hurricanes. Realistically, there’s still time for more tropical production to occur, but the window is closing. Additionally, the season is moving a little slow based on historical records. By Oct. 11 the NHC typically has recorded 12 named storms, and six hurricanes by Oct. 15.
Even if hurricane production is unlikely at this time of the year, it’s not impossible. In 2020, the busiest hurricane season on record, Hurricane Iota, a Category 5 major hurricane, formed in November — an unprecedented time for major storm formation — and brought devastating wind and rain through Central America
Floridians are still reeling from the damage left behind by Hurricane Ian, but experts say they should remain vigilant of the tropics as Hurricane season doesn’t end until Nov. 30.
