Tropical Storm Laura shifts south, leaving most of Florida outside the projected path

Tropical Storm Laura’s latest track has shifted south, taking most of Florida out of the forecast cone except the Florida Keys, which declared a local state of emergency.

Laura was nearing the northern Leeward Islands as of 8 p.m. Friday and was expected in Puerto Rico Saturday morning and near the northern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday.

The newest model shows the storm, which has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, going through the Florida Straits between the Florida Keys and Cuba on Monday morning. It shows the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane by midweek.

“The system is better organized than it was yesterday, but still lacks well-defined banding features,” the National Hurricane Center said Friday morning in an advisory,

Monroe County declared a State of Local Emergency and ordered the evacuations of all live-aboard vessels, mobile homes, recreational vehicles, travel trailers, and campers in anticipation of the storm.

Evacuation ordered for boats, mobile homes as tropical storm tracks toward the Keys

Miami city officials advised residents to be prepare for any potential storm impacts over the weekend. While the latest forecast does not show Miami in Laura’s path, said Mayor Francis Suarez, the situation can easily change.

“All preparation measures need to be wrapped up and buttoned up by Sunday evening,” said Suarez during an afternoon press conference.

The mayor said city crews have inspected storm water pump stations, and all are operating, and the city has contracts prepared to distribute ice and water if it becomes necessary.

Craig Setzer, chief meteorologist for Miami Herald news partner CBS4, noted that the worst of the weather appears to be in the Florida Keys on Monday.

As of the 8 p.m. Friday advisory, the storm was about 250 miles east-southeast of San Juan. It was headed west at 17 mph, but was expected to speed up over the next few days.

The storm could strengthen over the next couple of days “but the intensity forecast is quite uncertain and depends on how much interaction with land will occur,” the hurricane center said.

The National Weather Service in Miami warned that with the uncertainty of Laura’s track, it still “may bring tropical storm impacts to South Florida.”

Watches and warnings

Tropical storm warnings were issued Friday for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis and Anguilla.

At 2 p.m., the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti joined the list. At 5 p.m. the northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic was also under a warning.

A tropical storm watch was in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Tropical storm conditions, including heavy rainfall, will be possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night and possibly in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through the weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The hurricane center says Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and the southern Haitian Peninsula could see three to six inches of rain — with eight inches in some areas — through Sunday.

“This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico,” the hurricane center warned.

Tropical Depression 14

Meanwhile, tropical depression 14 is expected to strengthen as it approaches the Yucatán Peninsula. As of the 8 p.m. Friday advisory, the storm was 210 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. The system’s name, when it strengthens into a tropical storm, will be Marco.

A hurricane watch is in effect for Punta Herrero to Cancún, Mexico. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Punta Herrero to Dzilam, Mexico.

Third wave

There is also a third area the National Hurricane Center is watching, between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Island.

The disturbance is expected to move westward across the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday and it most likely will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

There is a 20 percent chance of it developing over the next five days.

Miami Herald staff writer Joey Flechas contributed to this report.