Storm update: Lee strengthens into a Category 1 hurricane, predicted to intensify

Within 12 hours of the National Hurricane Center deeming Lee a tropical storm Wednesday morning, its winds had intensified to a Category 1 hurricane status by the evening.

Early Wednesday, the center deemed what was once Tropical Depression 13, Tropical Storm Lee after the system doubled wind speeds overnight.

Now, Hurricane Lee is expected to rapidly intensify into an “extremely dangerous” major hurricane by early Saturday, the most recent center advisory said Wednesday evening. Currently, the hurricane’s winds speeds are 75 mph, making the storm a Category 1 hurricane.

The NHC said the storm’s location as 1,130 miles west-northwest of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving at 14 mph, according to the center’s 5 p.m. advisory. The Leeward Islands are a cluster of islands situated where the northeastern Caribbean Sea meets the western Atlantic.

On Tuesday afternoon, the then-tropical depression was boasting 35 mph winds.

“Although the NHC forecast and the model guidance continue to show Lee passing to the north of the northern Leeward Islands this weekend, users are reminded that the details of the track forecast are still uncertain at those time ranges,” a 5 a.m. Wednesday center report said. “Regardless of the details, there is high confidence that Lee will be a powerful hurricane late this week and over the weekend.”

Despite northeasterly vertical wind shear, Lee has still gained strength, but the limiting winds are expected to abate Thursday. With the northeasterly wind shear soon to die down and Lee’s path over very warm water in a moist environment, it’s a recipe for rapid intensification.

Forecasters say within the next two-to-three days, Lee’s winds could reach 150 mph, which would make it a Category 4 hurricane.

“Continued strengthen seems likely after that time, but hard-to-predict eye wall replacement cycles could cause some fluctuations in intensity later in the weekend and early next week,” according to an 11 a.m. National Hurricane Center advisory Wednesday.

However, it’s too soon to determine the location and magnitude of possible impacts from Lee. In part, the tropical storm’s track depends on “how strong and expansive the Bermuda-Azores high is at the time,” said Jonathan Erdman, a senior meteorologist at weather.com.

Erdman said the Bermuda-Azores high is essentially the “steering wheel” for hurricanes in tropical waters.

If it’s weaker and less expansive, Erdman said it means the hurricane could re-curve into the central Atlantic and not threaten the United States’ mainland. But if the high is stronger, more expansive and builds westward, it could move the storm farther west and “become a threat” to parts of the United States’ East Coast.

Currently, Erdman said the majority of computer model guidance suggest a re-curve scenario is most likely next week.

As of Wednesday, there were no direct threats to South Carolina.