Tropical storms expected to land in Caribbean, Texas as forecasters watch 3 other systems

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a total of five tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.

One of those systems, Tropical Storm Franklin, will veer north toward Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and has prompted tropical storm warnings for their entire southern coasts. The National Hurricane Center also warned of potential flooding there, and in Puerto Rico. Once Franklin is back over water, the system could become the second Atlantic hurricane of the season.

The system heading west in the Gulf of Mexico has led to tropical storm warnings for the southern coast of Texas.

The fourth system is off the coast of Africa and will likely become a tropical depression later in the week, and forecasters continue to watch for redevelopment of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily.

None of these systems is currently projected to head to Florida.

Tropical Storm Franklin

As of 8 p.m. Eastern time Monday, Tropical Storm Franklin was located about 290 miles south of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, with maximum sustained winds at 50 mph and tropical-storm-force winds up to 70 miles from its center. Though it was nearly stationary, the storm is expected to turn north Tuesday with its center reaching the southern coast of Haiti and the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday.

Franklin likely will hit Haiti and the Dominican Republic as a tropical storm, but could become a hurricane Saturday after it moves northeast past the island and out to sea, according to hurricane center estimates. Its eventual path at the end of the week remains uncertain.

Tropical storm warnings were issued for the southern coasts of both Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with expected storm surge of 1 to 3 feet. A tropical storm watch was in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic and areas of the Turks and Caicos Islands.

The system could bring up to 15 inches of rain to Haiti and the Dominican Republic and up to 6 inches to Puerto Rico, according to the latest estimates. The hurricane center warned of potential flash and urban flooding.

Tropical Depression Gert

Gert formed early Monday, hours after two other tropical storms — Franklin and Emily formed Sunday.

As of 4:30 p.m. Monday, Gert had weakened from a tropical storm to a tropical depression, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 30 mph. The system was moving west at 7 mph and was located about 375 miles east-southeast of the Caribbean.

Forecasters expect Gert to stumble in the face of a dry environment and strong upper levels winds, weakening to a remnant by Tuesday. The system will also likely turn north, away from the Caribbean.

Gulf system

Tropical storm warnings were issued for the Texas coast on Monday for the disturbance that made for a rainy weekend in South Florida. The warnings extend from the Mexico border north through Corpus Christi to Port O’Connor. Watches extend to Sargent, southwest of Houston.

The system was moving rapidly west, at 18 mph, on its way to the western Gulf of Mexico coastline. Winds were reaching 35 mph, but will increase to tropical storm-force winds of 40 mph or more, with heavy rains, early Tuesday with a few tornadoes possible in southern Texas.

As of 8 p.m., the storm was located about 320 miles east-southeast of Port Mansfield, Texas, and is expected to move inland over southern Texas by midday Tuesday. Flash flooding will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

The storm will produce rainfall ranging from 3 to 10 inches in parts of Texas and Mexico. The NHC also warned of inland flooding and flash flooding in the mountainous terrain of Mexico, in watersheds that flow into the Rio Grande River on the U.S.-Mexico border.

If storm surge coincides with high tide, water could reach 1 to 3 feet about ground in some areas. Large swells could cause life-threatening rip current conditions.

The next named storm to form would be Harold.

African coastal system

The disturbance a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands off Africa’s west coast is likely to become a tropical depression later this week as it moves west-northwest across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

As of 8 p.m. Monday, it was given a 40% chance of developing within 48 hours and 70% within seven days.

Remnant Emily

Emily was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone in the hurricane center’s 11 a.m. update. Emily’s remnants were over the central tropical Atlantic on Monday night, and forecasters said conditions could be favorable for some redevelopment later this week or weekend, though the odds are low.

None of the systems is currently expected to reach South Florida, said National Weather Service meteorologist George Rizzuto, though such forecasts can change.

“At this time we’re not seeing any signs that any of these are going to be able to make it all the way to us,” Rizzuto said.

The National Hurricane Center has been predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.

While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.

The NHC, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has forecast 14 to 21 named storms, including 6 to 11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.