Tropical system could strengthen as it approaches Gulf of Mexico. Here’s the forecast

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean has a 70% percent chance of strengthening into a depression or storm in the next day or so, forecasters say.

The disturbance is “better organized” and will likely continue to strengthen as it creeps toward Cuba through the weekend before making its way across the southern Gulf of Mexico by early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

“Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance,” forecasters wrote. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida and the Keys and the northwestern Bahamas” in the coming days.

So what does that mean for the northern Gulf Coast? Forecasters say it’s too early to tell.

“It does look like it’s going to move kind of northwestward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico but beyond that, there’s a lot of uncertainty about where it is going to go and how strong it might be,” Danielle Manning, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Slidell, Louisiana, told McClatchy News on Friday.

Manning said the timing of a cold front that’s forecast to move into the Gulf Coast region by the middle of next week could impact where the system is headed.

“The faster and stronger the cold front, the more likely the disturbance will get kicked up by that front,” she explained, adding that a slower front would allow the system to move further west.

As for potential impacts, Manning said the northern Gulf Coast could see wet weather with the potential for heavy rainfall, at the least.

Gulf Coast residents are urged to stay vigilant through the remainder of hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30.

The next named storm would be called Zeta and become the 27th of the year, tying a record.