A tropical wave several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, as its chances for development increase, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Environmental conditions on its projected path in the Atlantic are expected to improve in the next few days, so a tropical depression could form from the wave early at the start of next week, the NHC said.
But forecasters said recent satellite and wind data show “the system remains disorganized at the surface.”
The wave has a 30% chance of developing into a tropical system in the next two days, and a 60% chance of doing so in the next five days.
“The system is forecast to turn northwestward and then northward over the west Atlantic, passing north of the Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday,” the NHC said in a 6 a.m. advisory.
Should it become a tropical storm, it would be named Josephine.
Meanwhile, the system known as Tropical Depression 10 dissipated into the Atlantic overnight. The area lost strength as it moved toward the Cabo Verde Islands.
There have been nine named storms in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias.
Meteorologists predict an above-normal hurricane season with an estimated 13 to 19 named storms, as well as six to 10 hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes, or hurricanes that are Category 3 storms or greater, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 2020 outlook.
The majority of storm production is expected between August and October because there will be no El Niño to suppress hurricane developments, creating warmer than average sea-surface temperatures, NOAA said.
El Niño is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, which describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the east-central Equatorial Pacific, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“NOAA’s analysis of current and seasonal atmospheric conditions reveals a recipe for an active Atlantic hurricane season this year,” said Neil Jacobs, acting NOAA administrator. “Our skilled forecasters, coupled with upgrades to our computer models and observing technologies, will provide accurate and timely forecasts to protect life and property.”
©2020 The Orlando Sentinel (Orlando, Fla.)
Visit The Orlando Sentinel (Orlando, Fla.) at www.OrlandoSentinel.com
Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.