Tropics may come alive as hurricane season gets underway
Tropical development could take place in the Gulf of Mexico during the first official days of hurricane season, which begins on June 1. AccuWeather meteorologists warn that a blossoming area of thunderstorms just west of Florida has some potential to bud into an organized system within the next several days.
If the system strengthens enough, it will be named Arlene, which is first on the 2023 list. Whether or not it is called Arlene, it will pose impacts to Florida, including rough surf along the Gulf coast as well as locally heavy, gusty thunderstorms into this weekend.
 |
Satellite images and radar revealed that thunderstorms were bubbling up over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The thunderstorms had shifted farther to the east and were being joined by a substantial amount of activity near the Bahamas. Since Tuesday, more of a low-level circulation has become evident with the system, and this is likely to raise the development potential to a medium risk.
AccuWeather meteorologists had designated an area from the central Gulf of Mexico to Atlantic waters southwest of Bermuda as a risk for tropical development into the first week of June. It now appears that the Gulf will be the potential hot spot for tropical activity in the short term.
 |
Water temperatures over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico range from the upper 70s to the mid-80s F. In order for tropical development to occur, water temperatures need to be in the upper 70s or higher.
A tropical depression forms when an area of low pressure is accompanied by thunderstorms circulating around the center but observed winds are below 39 mph.
Once winds reach at least 39 mph and the circulation continues, the depression is upgraded to a tropical storm. Occasionally, systems can develop so quickly as to jump right to tropical storm status.
 |
Some gradual organization is possible over the next few days anywhere in the eastern half of the Gulf.
Drenching downpours and locally gusty thunderstorms will precede the storm's arrival, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
Storms will continue to bring downpours through the end of the week, "with the bulk of the downpours and thunderstorms likely from Thursday to Saturday over the peninsula," Douty said. "It is possible the storms may depart by the weekend, but that will depend on if there is a concise storm center versus a broad area of low pressure."
The thunderstorm activity will create hazards for outdoor activities. Rapidly developing thunderstorms may trigger lightning strikes with little notice. Some of the more potent thunderstorms will have the potential to produce a waterspout or brief tornado in addition to flash urban flooding.
 |
From May to June, rainfall typically ramps up over the Florida Peninsula as daily thunderstorms become more common. However, except for southeastern Florida, much of this spring has been very dry over much of the region.
A large area of exceptional drought existed as of May 23 over the west-central part of the peninsula. Since then, some downpours have become more common. However, despite between 2 and 3 inches of rain in Tampa during the second half of May, the city's rainfall is only slightly more than 50% of the historical average for the year so far.
Meanwhile, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, does not need rain in the short term. The city experienced excessive rainfall this spring due mainly to a deluge on April 12. That day, 20-30 inches of rain fell on southeastern Florida, compared to a historical average near 70 inches for the entire year.
 |
Through Saturday, a general 1-2 inches of rain is likely to fall on the northern part of the Florida Peninsula, with 2-4 inches and locally higher amounts over the southern half, depending on the track and development of the system.
Should the system organize into a tropical depression or storm before reaching the Florida Peninsula, then much heavier, perhaps double the initial rainfall projections, could occur in some locations. Should the system take a more northerly track, then heavier rain may fall farther north over the peninsula and perhaps across part of the Florida Panhandle with less over South Florida.
East of Florida, water temperatures are comparable to that of the eastern Gulf of Mexico -- ranging from the mid-70s to the low 80s. However, winds in the western part of the Atlantic may be more hostile for tropical development or additional strengthening should a system manage to form and emerge over the region. Meteorologists refer to breezes that disrupt tropical development as wind shear.
 |
Wind shear prevented thunderstorms from organizing between the Bahamas and Bermuda on Tuesday and may continue to disrupt development in this zone through the end of the week.
Since wind shear, like other weather factors, are subject to change, AccuWeather will continue to monitor the southwestern part of the Atlantic Ocean, east and northeast of Florida, for tropical development during much of the first week of June.
While there will be some wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, it will remain relatively weak and may not be enough to hinder gradual tropical development.
Even though there have been no named systems in the Atlantic thus far, there was an unnamed subtropical storm east of New England in January, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) revealed in recent weeks after post-storm analysis.
More recently, during the Memorial Day weekend, a system being closely monitored by AccuWeather forecasters since mid-May failed to develop officially. However, an eye was evident in the storm, with clouds spiraling about the center as it approached the Carolina coast. The weekend storm was not fully tropical, as evidenced by the chilly rain that fell on the Carolinas and part of Virginia during much of the weekend.
A cruise ship ran into rough seas, took on some water and was delayed when traveling from the Bahamas to South Carolina Sunday, May 28. Passengers were alarmed by the turbulent conditions on board, which caused quite a scare.
 |
AccuWeather meteorologists expressed the potential for pre-season and early-season tropical development in the Atlantic basin several months ago. This, despite what they expect to be an average to below-average year for the number of tropical systems and impacts on the United States driven in large part by a developing and strengthening El Niño.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
