Tropics watch: Tropical Storm Bonnie expected to make landfall Friday night

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is now Tropical Storm Bonnie, according to a special advisory Friday morning from the National Hurricane Center. 

The storm is forecast to make landfall tonight. Heavy rains are expected to cause flash flooding and mudslides in Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

Farther north, what used to be Invest 95L is bringing heavy rain to drought-stricken areas in Texas. The system is no longer being tracked by the Hurricane Center as of its 8 a.m. advisory.

The National Weather Service in Houston said a flood watch was in effect for the area and south of Interstate 10 with the greatest risk along the immediate coast earlier this morning. Another 3 to 4 inches of rain is possible today, with some locations possibly receiving more.

The Hurricane Center also is continuing to keep an eye on another tropical wave moving toward the Windward Islands. It's not expected to strengthen as it moves into the eastern Caribbean over the weekend.

There is also a low-pressure system along the coast of southern South Carolina near Beaufort. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas through Friday night and into Saturday.

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The next name for 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is Colin.

As the tropical rainstorm moves over Texas, showers and thunderstorms will increase over northeastern Texas and expand over western Louisiana and into southern Arkansas through the end of the week, according to AccuWeather.

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Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 p.m. July 1.

Details on Tropical Storm Bonnie

  • Location: 80 miles south-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua

  • Maximum wind speed: 45 mph

  • Direction:  west at 17 mph

  • Next advisory: 11 p.m.

What's out there and where are they?

Tropical Storm Bonnie: At 8 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located about 80 miles south-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua.

Bonnie is moving toward the west near 17 mph and a continued westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday.

On the forecast track, the system will make landfall near the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica in the next few hours, move across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.

Atlantic tropical wave: A tropical wave located over the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Atlantic low-pressure system: Satellite and radar images along with surface observations indicate that a low pressure system is located along the coast of southern South Carolina near Beaufort.

How likely are they to strengthen?

Tropical Storm Bonnie: Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is possible before landfall. After landfall, short term weakening is likely, but Bonnie is expected to restrengthen later this weekend and early next week over the eastern Pacific.

The tropical storm only has about 6 hours to strengthen before it reaches the coast. However, the environment remains favorable and given the improved structure, strengthening seems likely during that time. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Bonnie prior to landfall.

Although some weakening is likely late tonight and early Saturday when the storm passes across Central America, it is expected to remain a tropical cyclone. Gradual intensification is expected later in the weekend and next week as the cyclone remains in a low-shear and warm SST environment over the eastern Pacific. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of intensification than the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Atlantic tropical wave: Significant development of this system is not expected to occur while it moves west- northwestward into unfavorable conditions over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.

  • Formation chance through 5 days: low, 10 percent.

Atlantic low-pressure system: Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it drifts northeastward along the southeast U.S. coastline during the next couple of days. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas through tonight and into Saturday.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.

  • Formation chance through 5 days: low, 20 percent.

Who is likely to be impacted?

Tropical Storm Bonnie: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. Both countries could receive 4 to 8 inches, with some locations receiving 12 inches.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres Island today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the tropical storm warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this evening and will spread west to the Pacific coast within the warning areas overnight.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for:

  • San Andres Colombia

  • Limon, Costa Rica, north to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua

  • Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica, north to the border of Nicaragua and Honduras

Invest 95L: Heavy rain is possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next two days.

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The heaviest rainfall will occur from just east of Houston to Beaumont, north to Lufkin, Texas, into Friday afternoon where 4 to 8 inches is likely. Some areas could see 16 inches, according to AccuWeather.

Most of the downpours and thunderstorms associated with the tropical rainstorm are likely to remain to the east of San Antonio and the Dallas metro area.

Some of the more intense thunderstorms near the Texas coast will bring the risk of strong wind gusts, hail and an isolated tornado or waterspout.

Meteorologists said motorists may experience travel delays as some roads could be blocked by rushing water and/or ponding, including in the Houston area. Airports in the area could also be affected by the tropical weather.

Atlantic tropical wave: It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from this tropical wave.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared during what's expected to be an active hurricane season.

Atlantic low-pressure system: See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service forecast office for more details.

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The next five days

See the National Hurricane Center's five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.

Excessive rainfall forecast

What's out there?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

What's next?

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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: NHC: Tropical Storm Bonnie closing in on Nicaragua, Costa Rica