Tropics watch: Potential Tropical Cyclone Two moving fast. Invest 95L taking aim at Texas

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two continues to race across the southern Caribbean and is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching Central America.

In the Gulf of Mexico, Invest 95L is taking aim at Texas and could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it moves inland tonight or Thursday. Tropical rainfall could extend to several Gulf Coast states.

The Hurricane Center said the system could become a tropical depression near the coast before it moves inland tonight or Thursday.

Farther to the east, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor another tropical wave following Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is forecast to become a tropical storm while in the Caribbean. Although winds are currently tropical-storm strength, the system lacks a well-defined center of circulation.

While Tuesday's forecasts called for the system to become a hurricane before reaching Central America, today's forecast calls for it to remain a tropical storm as it moves across land and into the Pacific.

Almost all of the models indicate the system will survive passage across Central America and intensify in the eastern Pacific, according to the Hurricane Center.

A tropical cyclone this far south is extremely rare in June; it's more typical in September and October.

"During June, there has never been a named tropical system in more than 150 years of records near the coast of South America during La Niña conditions," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist John Feerick said.

The next names on the list of 2022 Atlantic names are Bonnie and Colin.

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Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 11 a.m. June 29:

Details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two

  • Location: 130 miles east-southeast of Curacao; 1,382 miles southeast of West Palm Beach

  • Maximum wind speed: 40 mph

  • Direction:  west at 24 mph

  • Next advisory:  2 p.m.

What's out there and where are they?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two: At 11 a.m., the storm was about 130 miles east-southeast of Curacao. It's moving to the west near 24 mph and a west or west-northwest motion is expected through Friday.

On the forecast track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea and the northern coast of Venezuela today, near the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia early Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea later on Thursday and on Friday. The system is expected to be near or over Nicaragua by Friday night.

Invest 95L: An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move slowly west or west- southwest and approach the coast of Texas during the next day or two.

Central Atlantic tropical wave: A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.

How likely are they to strengthen?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two: Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the disturbance remains over water. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.

Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while moving west across the southern Caribbean Sea.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 80 percent.

  • Formation chance through 5 days: high, 90 percent.

Invest 95L: Slow development of this system is possible, and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it moves inland tonight or Thursday.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent.

  • Formation chance through 5 days: medium, 40 percent.

Central Atlantic tropical wave: This system is forecast to interact with another tropical wave over the next couple of days, and some gradual development is possible later this week. The overall system is forecast to be near the Windward islands by the weekend while it moves west-northwest at about 15 mph.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.

  • Formation chance through 5 days: low, 30 percent.

Who is likely to be impacted?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two: Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela today and from the ABC Islands to portions of northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia today through Thursday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area over Islas Margarita and the adjacent islands through this morning, and over the ABC Islands by this evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and northeastern Colombia tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in northeastern Venezuela for the next few hours.

About 12-16 inches of rain is forecast over a large part of Nicaragua and Honduras, according to AccuWeather.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for:

  • Bonaire

  • Curacao

  • Aruba

  • Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana west to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of Venezuela.

  • Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to Santa Marta

Invest 95L: Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week.

The heaviest rainfall will occur from near Houston to just east of Corpus Christi, northward to College Station, Texas, from Thursday to Friday,  where a general 4-8 inches is likely. Some areas could see 16 inches, according to AccuWeather.

As tropical moisture surges into the coast, it will interact with a stalled front, bringing rounds of torrential downpours this week. While the heaviest rain is expected on the Texas coast as the rainstorm moves over land Thursday, enhanced rainfall will be possible as far east as Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

Tropical impacts in the Texas region around the Gulf include flooding downpours, gusts of wind at the coast and a rough surf.

Central Atlantic tropical wave: It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from this tropical wave.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared during what's expected to be an active hurricane season.

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The next five days

See the National Hurricane Center's five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.

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What's out there?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

What's next?

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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: NHC: Invest 95L could be rainmaker. Tropical Storm Bonnie likely in Caribbean