Trump limited deficit in Miami-Dade County, dealing Biden a big blow in Florida

In 2016, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won Miami-Dade County over Donald Trump by about 30 percentage points, despite losing Florida. Democrats didn’t expect 2020 nominee Joe Biden to do quite that well in Florida’s largest county. But they couldn’t have imagined Trump would cut into that margin by more than 20 points, as he did on Tuesday in a disastrous result for Biden and Florida Democrats.

Biden led President Trump in Miami-Dade by about seven percentage points after most results had been published Tuesday night.

Biden’s lackluster performance in Miami-Dade opened the door for Trump to win Florida, a state he needed to win. The Associated Press called the state for Trump after midnight.

Matthew Isbell, a Democratic data analyst, told the Miami Herald that Biden made strong gains in working class and suburban areas like Pinellas, Duval and Seminole counties. But a “major swing in Miami-Dade [ate] those up,” he said in a text message Tuesday night.

Trump’s success in Miami-Dade was driven in part by gains in majority Hispanic districts, where he won nearly 55% of the vote, and majority White precincts, where he took nearly 43% of the vote with most results reported. Hillary Clinton won roughly 56% of the vote in these majority Hispanic precincts in 2016 and nearly 60% of the vote in these majority White precincts in 2016.

In majority Hispanic Hialeah, where about three-quarters of residents are Cuban American, Trump was winning two-thirds of the vote, dominating a city he narrowly won in 2016.

Trump also improved his performance in majority Black precincts, winning just over 13% of the vote compared to just under 7% in 2016. In Miami Gardens, the largest majority Black city in Florida, Trump captured nearly 15% of the vote, compared to just over 7% in 2016, with the vast majority of votes counted.

Trump also gained among precincts with large senior populations, winning 60 percent of the vote in precincts where more than one-third of the population is 66 or older. Clinton narrowly took these precincts in 2016 with just over 51 percent of the vote.

Democratic strategist Reggie Cardozo said he believes the Biden campaign didn’t have the extensive field operation needed to win a county that he refers to as a “grab and go” county.

“You’ve got to go in and grab voters and pull them to the polls in Miami-Dade,” Cardozo said. “The times Democrats have been successful is when we have an extensive field operation. With COVID-19, we didn’t have that and if they did, it was only toward the end.”

Cardozo said Miami-Dade County Commissioner and mayoral candidate Daniella Levine Cava is an example of how Democrats can succeed. Levine Cava was one of the few South Florida Democrats to win a competitive race at the county or state level, defeating Republican Steve Bovo for the nonpartisan seat.

Levine Cava “ran a coordinated campaign and that could be why you are seeing her prevail,” Cardozo said.

Nelson Diaz, the chairman of the Miami-Dade GOP, told the Herald that Republicans’ strong showing in the county was a rebellion against Democratic candidates who were painted as “socialists” by their opponents.

“We’re seeing a revolt against candidates who support socialist agendas,” Diaz said.

Biden and other Democrats in Miami-Dade reject that label and generally espouse more centrist policies than self-proclaimed Democratic Socialists like Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. But Diaz suggested the messaging was effective in Miami-Dade, which has a large population of Cuban Americans who have helped bolster support for Trump.

Heading into Election Day, Democrats in Miami-Dade were lagging Republicans in turnout, with 66% of registered Democrats having cast ballots versus 74% of Republicans. Among independents, 58% in Miami-Dade had voted by mail or voted early in person before Tuesday.

Countywide turnout eclipsed 74% Tuesday with some votes still being counted, surpassing the county’s 72% rate in 2016. Over 1.15 million ballots were cast.

Democrats in Miami-Dade had cast about 100,000 more ballots than Republicans entering Tuesday, a slightly smaller edge than they held before Election Day in 2016 with more total votes cast.

Among the nearly 1.6 million registered voters in Miami-Dade, about 40% are Democrats, 28% are Republicans and 31% are independents.

By 5 p.m. Tuesday, at least 115,000 voters had cast their ballots in person at the polls, according to the Miami-Dade elections department. That included about 42,000 Democrats, 34,000 Republicans and 38,000 independents.

Miami-Dade elections officials said they expected about 200,000 people to vote in person on Election Day, which would translate to an 80% turnout in the county.

In Broward County, the most Democratic-leaning county in Florida, Biden led Trump by approximately 30 percentage points with the vast majority of ballots tallied, a few points less than Clinton’s 2016 win there. In Palm Beach County, Biden held a double-digit lead.

Herald staff writers David Smiley and Douglas Hanks contributed to this report.