Trudeau’s Liberals Edge Ahead Before Monday Election, Poll Shows

(Bloomberg) -- Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party edged ahead with a two-point lead over its Conservative rival, within the margin of error, according to the latest poll conducted days before Monday’s election.

A survey by Nanos Research found 32.6% of respondents favored the Liberals as their top choice versus 30.3% favoring the Conservative Party led by Andrew Scheer. The New Democratic Party was third with 18.4% support.

Canadians vote on Monday in what’s expected to be one of the closest races in the nation’s history. The most likely scenario is a government that doesn’t command an absolute majority in its own right and will need seek the support of smaller parties.

The Nanos survey showed the separatist Bloc Quebecois gaining support in the French-speaking province. If that trend continues, the party “might be a more significant power in parliament,” Nik Nanos, head of the polling operation, said in a tweet Saturday.

The survey was based on a three-day rolling sample, taken Oct. 16-18, of telephone interviews with 1,200 eligible voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Read more: Once a Superstar, Canada’s Trudeau Fights for His Political Life

To contact the reporter on this story: Natalie Obiko Pearson in Vancouver at

To contact the editors responsible for this story: David Scanlan at, Ros Krasny, James Ludden

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