Trump is backing 7 Georgia GOP primary challengers. Will his influence swing the election?

In Georgia, the 2022 Republican primary election is likely to resemble the 2020 general election.

The vote is expected to be a referendum on Donald Trump, albeit indirectly.

So say Republican strategists, lawmakers and Georgia political scientists. Ed Lindsey, a GOP strategist, gives a straightforward assessment: Trump has sewn division amongst Republicans in Georgia over the fallout from 2020.

“He's very much looking to recreate the Republican Party in Georgia in his own image, and quite frankly, show total fealty to him on bended knee, as opposed to conservative Republicans who think independently, and who judge people based on their policy,” Lindsey said.

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Trump himself is not running, but he has taken sides in seven Georgia races, extending his endorsement to candidates running against fellow Republicans ahead of the May 24 primary.

And it's not just high-profile politicos such as David Perdue in the governor's race, Herschel Walker for Senate and Burt Jones for lieutenant governor.

Trump has endorsed candidates in down-ballot contests as well: He tapped Jody Hice for secretary of state; Patrick Witt for insurance commissioner; John Gordon for attorney general; and Vernon Jones for the 10th Congressional District.

It's a full Trump ticket.

The former president's support is not limited to campaigning on his candidates' behalf. Trump's Save America PAC transferred $500,000 to Get Georgia Right, a super PAC devoted to attacking Kemp. It's the first time Trump opened the account up since leaving the White House.

Swing states like Georgia often see political money and influence pour in ahead of big elections. Yet Lindsey thinks this is more about Trump getting back at Georgia officials who refused his calls to overturn the 2020 election than it is about winning an only slightly purple Georgia.

The entire Trump slate joined the former president on March 26 for a rally in Commerce, located north of Athens near Interstate 85. Towards the end of the event, Trump delivered a cryptic quote about why he came to Georgia, one aimed at Perdue.

"Mister future governor — I hope, David, you’re going to be the governor, or I just wasted a hell of a lot of time here tonight," he said.

Why is Trump endorsing Georgia candidates?

Trump’s firebrand style took the GOP to new places during his time in the Oval Office, supplanting the understated power of the conservative party of the past with righteous partisan anger towards those left of center, and recently, those only slightly right of center.

The “silent majority” became a little less silent, and based on the 2020 general election results, less than a majority.

With a charismatic and controversial leader comes those who believe what they say, no matter what. So when Trump says he did not lose the Nov. 2020 election, despite two years of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, some members of the party believe him.

University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock estimates as many as three-fourths of Republicans still believe that the election was stolen.

The Trump-endorsed candidates are almost required to push that idea. Hice, gunning to be the top elections official in Georgia, has been peddling the lie since Nov. 2020. Last week, Perdue opened his debate with Georgia's popular incumbent governor, Brian Kemp, by invoking Trump and the "Big Lie."

“First off, let me be very clear tonight,” Perdue said, “the election in 2020 was rigged and stolen.”

He even aimed at Kemp directly, saying the governor allowed “radical Democrats to steal the election.”

Yet Perdue remains far behind Kemp in both polling and fundraising. One of Savannah's most influential Republican lawmakers, Rep. Jesse Petrea, says he's confident Kemp will win re-election despite the governor being a frequent target of Trump's ire since the 2020 election.

Petrea predicts Kemp will win a majority in the primary vote and avoid a runoff. He cites a recent UGA-led AJC poll released April 26, which had Kemp at 53% and Perdue at 27%.

Petrea says it's important to note that Republican voters who like Trump, his policies and how he ran the country can still disagree with his candidate choices. Trump is not a monolith.

"I don't believe [Trump's endorsement] is going to be the deciding factor. The deciding factor is going to be the candidates," Petrea said. "I'm a believer that the quality of the candidates, the success of the candidates is going to be what drives people to make their decisions."

Does a Trump endorsement equal a win in Georgia?

Lindsey, the GOP strategist, believes that Trump has more sway in down ballot races than he does in the high-profile contests. Voters are familiar with candidates like Perdue and Kemp and outside influences - even Trump - aren't enough to change minds.

“There's still a sizable percentage of Republicans who feel a strong allegiance toward [Trump]. I think that it's lessened over time, but I think if anyone were to discount it, they would do so at their own peril, because the strength of it really depends on how well people already know particular candidates,” Lindsey said.

UGA's Bullock agrees, pointing to Witt, who is running for insurance commissioner, as an example.

Bullock said the average voter doesn’t know what an insurance commissioner does, much less who the Trump-endorsed candidate in that race is. Endorsements aren’t listed by a candidate's name on the ballot. And for a candidate banking on Trump’s endorsement, it’s not cheap to get that message out.

“These endorsements don't come with a check, apparently,” Bullock said.

Bullock lives within Congressional District 10, where Jones is the Trump-endorsed candidate. He says Jones’ campaign signs feature his own name, but also Trump’s. For some candidates, it’s the main message of their campaign. And that comes with risks for Trump.

Bullock says if Trump’s candidates fail, not just in Georgia but around the country, it could be a sign of Trump's waning influence. And it could push candidates eyeing a Republican presidential nomination in 2024 towards challenging him.

“If Perdue loses and Witt loses and Hice loses, then the image is gonna be that a Trump endorsement doesn't matter much. If that happens, his batting average isn’t that good,” Bullock said. “Then people like Ron DeSantis and Mike Pence and other folks start thinking ‘maybe I will run in that 2024 presidential primary.’”

Will Peebles is the enterprise reporter for Savannah Morning News. He can be reached at wpeebles@gannett.com and @willpeeblessmn on Twitter.

This article originally appeared on Savannah Morning News: Here are 7 GA candidates endorsed by Trump for the primary election