Trump and Biden both grate Americans, which is why it's hard to predict the 2024 winner

The past two presidential elections were heavily affected, if not decided by voters who did not like either candidate, and recent polling shows even more voter dissatisfaction with a possible 2024 rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.

• Both Trump and Biden are viewed unfavorably by 56% of voters. (RealClear Politics average Sept. 23, 2023)

• 64% of voters say a Trump-Biden rematch would make them feel the political system is broken. (CBS News Poll Sept. 12-15, 2023)

• 63% of voters say they would look forward to an election between any two candidates other than Biden and Trump. (FOX News Poll Sept. 9-12, 2023)

• Three quarters of the voters are concerned about Biden’s age and mental fitness, and almost two-thirds are concerned about Trump’s indictments. (NBC News Poll September 15-19, 2023)

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Voters like lesser known evils, which explains Trump beating Hillary Clinton

In the last two elections, we have introduced what we call the Mae West effect to correctly predict the loser in both elections. We defined this effect from one of the many colorful statements by the bawdy Vaudeville and Hollywood entertainer of the 1920s and 1930s.

“When choosing between two evils, I always like to try the one I've never tried before,” she said.

We suggested that the Mae West effect comes into play in elections where voters perceived both candidates negatively and when forced to choose between what they considered the “lesser of two evils,” decided to try the new one.

In September 2016 we proposed that this effect would tip the presidential election away from Hillary Clinton and toward Donald Trump, and in October 2019, we suggested that it could turn the 2020 election from Donald Trump to his eventual Democratic opponent.

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The so-called “Mae West effect” challenges both Republicans and Democrats in 2024

In many voters’ minds, both Trump and Biden are now “tried evils,” and the Mae West effect is unlikely to aid either Trump or Biden in a rematch. It could, however, open the door to a new face if either party were to choose a different candidate, without the perceived negatives of Trump and Biden.

Trump, to be sure, has some very loyal and vocal Republican supporters, but little traction outside of them. Forthcoming trials and possible convictions could derail his presidential campaign and lend continuing unpredictability to it. Other than Biden, he would be the oldest major party nominee ever to run for that office.

Likewise, while Biden’s legislative initiatives have largely pleased his party base, he lacks charisma. His speaking style is labored, his gait shows his age, and were he to serve out a second term, he would leave office at 86.

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Will another presidential candidate step up to replace Trump and Biden?

Neither candidate inspires confidence, and both have high negatives. In such a situation, the party with a new face will likely have an electoral advantage over the party that sticks with its heir apparent.

There are numerous potential Republican candidates, but the few who have stepped out from under Trump’s shadow appear to have little chance of winning.

Although current polls are tight, Biden has already shown that he can beat Trump in both the popular vote and the Electoral College, and Democrats have little incentive to change horses in midstream in such a déjà vu arrangement.

We suggest, however, that a Republican candidate other than Trump and without his baggage and high negatives would likely fare better in a head-to-head contest against Biden.

If Democrats face a new opponent, they will need a new face of their own. This seems quite unlikely absent Biden deciding that he has fulfilled his mission and should pass the torch to a new generation. Moreover, although there are many Democratic leaders, it is unclear who would replace him and whether he or she would have time to gain a national following.

In short, the Mae West effect seems to have been neutralized as an electoral predicter, at least under present conditions. The effect would not aid either party in the face of a Trump-Biden rematch.

However, if one party chooses a new candidate and Biden or Trump face a younger and untried challenger, Mae West may yet show us the way.

Dr. John R. Vile is a professor of political science and dean of the University Honors College at Middle Tennessee State University. Email: john.vile@mtsu.edu

Kent Syler is a professor of political science and public policy at Middle Tennessee State University. Email: kent.syler@mtsu.edu

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Trump and Biden are unpopular so 2024 predictions are tough