Trump and Biden tied in hypothetical 2024 rematch, poll finds

The 2024 election looks set to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump.

Despite his mounting legal problems, Mr Trump is by far the most popular candidate in the Republican field.

Only Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has reached double digits but he remains miles behind Mr Trump.

Author Marianne Williamson and anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr are challenging Mr Biden for the Democratic nomination, but they’re not considered real threats to the president.

Mr Trump was indicted for the third time on 1 August for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. As Democrats coalesce behind Mr Biden, Mr Trump’s mounting legal woes appear to only strengthen his support among his base.

The Republican primary is scheduled to begin with the Iowa caucuses on 15 January and the New Hampshire primary on 23 January. The primary season may go all the way into June, but who the nominee will be is expected to become clear well before that point.

Key Points

• 14 per cent of voters decline to support either Trump or Biden

• Trump claims he’s ‘leading Biden by a lot’ even as poll finds them tied

• Biden thought to be headed for close reelection fight

• Democrats would prefer Kamala Harris over Joe Biden as 2024 nominee, new poll shows

• Trump dominates GOP primary as general election looks set to be 2020 rematch

Bashing ‘wokeism’ less effective with GOP primary voters than law and order, poll shows

21:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Slamming “woke” institutions and beliefs may be less effective to persuade Republican primary voters than previously believed, polling shows.

NYT/Siena College polls of national and Iowa GOP voters have revealed that candidates were unlikely to convince voters to support them by mostly focusing on battling “wokeism”.

Republicans are instead more enticed by more libertarian economic policies and strong messaging on law and order, specifically regarding cities and the border.

When Mr Trump was in Iowa in June, Mr Trump said: “I don’t like the term ‘woke’. It’s just a term they use — half the people can’t even define it, they don’t know what it is.”

While the line appeared to be intended as a criticism of Mr DeSantis, the polling indicates that Mr Trump me be on to something.

Choosing between two hypothetical GOP candidates, 24 per cent of national GOP voters supported “a candidate who focuses on defeating radical ‘woke’ ideology in our schools, media and culture” instead of “a candidate who focuses on restoring law and order in our streets and at the border”.

Meanwhile, 65 per cent said they would support the law and order candidate.

In the group of voters aged over 65, a demographic with high voter turnout, only 17 per cent preferred the “anti-woke” option.

Poll: Half of all Americans believe Trump tried to stay in office illegally

18:00 , Gustaf Kilander

97% of Iowa Trump-backers say their support is strong

15:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Ninety-seven per cent of Trump-supporting Iowa Republicans taking part in the recent NYT/Siena poll said that they support the former president strongly.

That figure for Mr DeSantis is 76 per cent. For those backing other candidates, 54 per cent said they support them strongly.

Almost half of all Trump supporters in Iowa open to backing other candidates

13:00 , Gustaf Kilander

The NYT/Siena poll of Iowa Republicans has revealed that around 47 per cent of those backing Mr Trump are open to supporting other candidates.

Among GOP voters in the state with a college degree, Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis are tied at 26 per cent support each.

But in a head-to-head poll in Iowa between Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis, the former president leads his rival, 55 to 39 per cent.

If the matchup is limited to college-educated voters, Mr DeSantis leads Mr Trump in Iowa 53 to 38 per cent.

Democratic challengers trail Biden by more than 50 points

09:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Enthusiasm among primary voters is an important factor for candidates involved in especially close races — or, conversely, can be seen as the reason those races are close to begin with. Mr Biden is thought to be headed for a close reelection fight as voters sour on the idea of re-electing someone who was already the oldest individual to ever take the oath of office of president, even as his likely opponent is battered by escalating legal troubles.

Hillary Clinton’s inability to stoke enthusiasm for her campaign after her defeat of Bernie Sanders in the 2016 Democratic primary was viewed as a significant factor leading to her eventual loss to Mr Trump that year.

But as it stands, Mr Biden will almost certainly be his party’s nominee, concerns about age aside. His two announced challengers for the Democratic nomination, Robert F Kennedy Jr and Marianne Williamson, trailed him by more than 50 points each.

The NYT/Siena poll was conducted between 23-27 July and included a subpopulation of 296 likely Democratic primary voters. Information about the poll’s methodology can be found here.

Democrats would prefer Kamala Harris over Joe Biden as 2024 nominee, poll shows

04:00 , John Bowden

Another new poll is out suggesting that Democrats could have a stronger chance at winning in 2024 should President Joe Biden step aside for a younger successor.

The survey, published by The New York Times in partnership with Siena College, was released on Tuesday. It found low numbers of enthusiasm among Democrats for the re-nomination of either Mr Biden or a potential decision by the president against running for reelection in favour of endorsing his vice president, Kamala Harris, to run in his stead.

But the latter option was more popular among members of the president’s party by six percentage points, indicating that Democrats’ primary concern with the Biden brand is the stamina of the candidate himself. There’s a catch, however — the percentage of Democratic primary voters who were unsure about how they would feel about their party’s nominee jumps slightly were Ms Harris to take the reins, and as a result the total percentage of primary voters who were at the very least “satisfied” with their party’s pick was actually lower with Ms Harris at the top of the ticket.

It was a confounding poll result that reveals one fact clearly: Democratic voters are deeply unsure about who they want to be their party’s standard-bearer should the incumbent president be sidelined for any reason. And separately, the poll found concerns about age outweighed any other complaint levied against Mr Biden by primary voters by an almost 2-to-1 margin.

Trump dominates GOP primary as general election looks set to be 2020 rematch

01:00 , Gustaf Kilander

The 2024 election looks set to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump.

Despite his mounting legal problems, Mr Trump is by far the most popular candidate in the Republican field.

A recent Times/Siena found that 54 per cent of likely GOP primary voters prefer Mr Trump as the nominee, compared to 17 per cent for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

All other candidates are in the low single digits.

That same poll, conducted last month, found that Mr Trump and Mr Biden are tied in a hypothetical 2024 rematch at 43 per cent each.

Among registered Republicans, 88 per cent supported Mr Trump, while 83 per cent of registered Democrats backed Mr Biden.

Independents supported Mr Biden, 42 to 37 per cent.

Most voters are not excited about their options – 55 per cent said they see Mr Trump somewhat or very unfavourably, with that number being 54 per cent for Mr Biden.

The poll was conducted between 23 and 27 July and included 1,329 registered voters.

14 per cent of voters decline to support either Trump or Biden

Sunday 6 August 2023 22:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Mr Biden and Mr Trump are tied at 43 per cent according to a NYT/Siena College poll conducted last month, with 14 per cent of respondents declining to back either of them.

Some said they wouldn’t vote, while others said they would vote for a third party candidate and a number didn’t provide an answer at all.

But a number of these voters will likely vote for Mr Biden or Mr Trump in next year’s election. And while they’re far from excited about Mr Biden, they strongly dislike Mr Trump.

Of these voters, 27 per cent have a favourable view of Mr Biden, while only 15 per cent have a favourable view of Mr Trump, according to the poll.

49% of Americans say Trump should suspend campaign in light of Jan 6 charges

Sunday 6 August 2023 19:00 , Gustaf Kilander

DeSantis seen as more moral but less likable, poll shows

Sunday 6 August 2023 16:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Mr DeSantis is seen as both more moral and likeable than Mr Trump among Iowa Republicans.

Among that group, 57 per cent said the word “moral” better described Mr DeSantis than Mr Trump while 52 per cent said the same for “likeable” in the NYT/Siena poll.

Forty per cent said Mr DeSantis would be “able to beat Joe Biden” and 31 per cent he was more of a “strong leader”.

When asked who was more “fun,” only 19 per cent said Mr DeSantis.

Among national GOP voters, 45 per cent said Mr DeSantis was the more “moral” of the top two contenders for the nomination, the same figure as for who was more “likeable”.

The national GOP had significantly less faith in Mr DeSantis’ ability to beat Joe Biden, with only 22 per cent saying the governor had a bigger chance in 2024.

In the national GOP, 16 per cent of voters said Mr DeSantis was more “fun”.

DeSantis more favourable than Trump among Iowa ROP

Sunday 6 August 2023 13:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Despite his lead in Iowa, Mr Trump is in second place in the state when it comes to favourable ratings.

South Carolina Senator Tim Scott comes in third place with 70 per cent of Iowa Republicans having a favourable view of him.

Mr Trump comes in at 72 per cent with Mr DeSantis in the lead with a favourable rating at 77 in the NYT/Siena poll.

Half of white evangelical Iowa Republicans back Trump

Sunday 6 August 2023 09:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Half of white evangelical members of Iowa GOP voters support Mr Trump, six per cent more than Mr Trump’s support in the state as a whole.

Mr Trump’s former Vice President Mike Pence has the same level of support among white evangelicals as he has among Iowa Republicans as a whole – three per cent.

Among white evangelicals, 48 per cent has a favourable view while 49 per cent has an unfavourable view, according to the NYT/Siena poll.

Trump lead in Iowa ten points smaller than nationwide

Sunday 6 August 2023 04:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Mr Trump’s lead in Iowa is ten points smaller in Iowa than among GOP voters nationwide.

Mr DeSantis has 20 per cent support in Iowa to Mr Trump’s 44 per cent, according to a Times/Siena poll.

Nationwide, Mr Trump leads the field with 54 per cent support to Mr DeSantis’s 17 per cent.

In Iowa, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott is in third place with nine per cent, followed by entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at five per cent, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley at four per cent, and former Vice President Mike Pence at three per cent.

97% of Iowa Trump-backers say their support is strong

Sunday 6 August 2023 01:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Ninety-seven per cent of Trump-supporting Iowa Republicans taking part in the recent NYT/Siena poll said that they support the former president strongly.

That figure for Mr DeSantis is 76 per cent. For those backing other candidates, 54 per cent said they support them strongly.

Almost half of all Trump supporters in Iowa open to backing other candidates

Saturday 5 August 2023 22:00 , Gustaf Kilander

The NYT/Siena poll of Iowa Republicans has revealed that around 47 per cent of those backing Mr Trump are open to supporting other candidates.

Among GOP voters in the state with a college degree, Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis are tied at 26 per cent support each.

But in a head-to-head poll in Iowa between Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis, the former president leads his rival, 55 to 39 per cent.

If the matchup is limited to college-educated voters, Mr DeSantis leads Mr Trump in Iowa 53 to 38 per cent.

Democratic challengers trail Biden by more than 50 points

Saturday 5 August 2023 19:00 , John Bowden

Enthusiasm among primary voters is an important factor for candidates involved in especially close races — or, conversely, can be seen as the reason those races are close to begin with. Mr Biden is thought to be headed for a close reelection fight as voters sour on the idea of re-electing someone who was already the oldest individual to ever take the oath of office of president, even as his likely opponent is battered by escalating legal troubles.

Hillary Clinton’s inability to stoke enthusiasm for her campaign after her defeat of Bernie Sanders in the 2016 Democratic primary was viewed as a significant factor leading to her eventual loss to Mr Trump that year.

But as it stands, Mr Biden will almost certainly be his party’s nominee, concerns about age aside. His two announced challengers for the Democratic nomination, Robert F Kennedy Jr and Marianne Williamson, trailed him by more than 50 points each.

The NYT/Siena poll was conducted between 23-27 July and included a subpopulation of 296 likely Democratic primary voters. Information about the poll’s methodology can be found here.

Democrats would prefer Kamala Harris over Joe Biden as 2024 nominee, new poll shows

Saturday 5 August 2023 16:00 , John Bowden

Another new poll is out suggesting that Democrats could have a stronger chance at winning in 2024 should President Joe Biden step aside for a younger successor.

The survey, published by The New York Times in partnership with Siena College, was released on Tuesday. It found low numbers of enthusiasm among Democrats for the re-nomination of either Mr Biden or a potential decision by the president against running for reelection in favour of endorsing his vice president, Kamala Harris, to run in his stead.

But the latter option was more popular among members of the president’s party by six percentage points, indicating that Democrats’ primary concern with the Biden brand is the stamina of the candidate himself. There’s a catch, however — the percentage of Democratic primary voters who were unsure about how they would feel about their party’s nominee jumps slightly were Ms Harris to take the reins, and as a result the total percentage of primary voters who were at the very least “satisfied” with their party’s pick was actually lower with Ms Harris at the top of the ticket.

It was a confounding poll result that reveals one fact clearly: Democratic voters are deeply unsure about who they want to be their party’s standard-bearer should the incumbent president be sidelined for any reason. And separately, the poll found concerns about age outweighed any other complaint levied against Mr Biden by primary voters by an almost 2-to-1 margin.

Trump dominates GOP primary as general election looks set to be 2020 rematch

Saturday 5 August 2023 13:00 , Gustaf Kilander

The 2024 election looks set to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump.

Despite his mounting legal problems, Mr Trump is by far the most popular candidate in the Republican field.

A recent Times/Siena found that 54 per cent of likely GOP primary voters prefer Mr Trump as the nominee, compared to 17 per cent for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

All other candidates are in the low single digits.

That same poll, conducted last month, found that Mr Trump and Mr Biden are tied in a hypothetical 2024 rematch at 43 per cent each.

Among registered Republicans, 88 per cent supported Mr Trump, while 83 per cent of registered Democrats backed Mr Biden.

Independents supported Mr Biden, 42 to 37 per cent.

Most voters are not excited about their options – 55 per cent said they see Mr Trump somewhat or very unfavourably, with that number being 54 per cent for Mr Biden.

The poll was conducted between 23 and 27 July and included 1,329 registered voters.

14 per cent of voters decline to support either Trump or Biden

Saturday 5 August 2023 10:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Mr Biden and Mr Trump are tied at 43 per cent according to a NYT/Siena College poll conducted last month, with 14 per cent of respondents declining to back either of them.

Some said they wouldn’t vote, while others said they would vote for a third party candidate and a number didn’t provide an answer at all.

But a number of these voters will likely vote for Mr Biden or Mr Trump in next year’s election. And while they’re far from excited about Mr Biden, they strongly dislike Mr Trump.

Of these voters, 27 per cent have a favourable view of Mr Biden, while only 15 per cent have a favourable view of Mr Trump, according to the poll.

49% of Americans say Trump should suspend campaign in light of Jan 6 charges

Saturday 5 August 2023 08:00 , Gustaf Kilander

DeSantis seen as more moral but less likable, poll shows

Saturday 5 August 2023 05:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Mr DeSantis is seen as both more moral and likeable than Mr Trump among Iowa Republicans.

Among that group, 57 per cent said the word “moral” better described Mr DeSantis than Mr Trump while 52 per cent said the same for “likeable” in the NYT/Siena poll.

Forty per cent said Mr DeSantis would be “able to beat Joe Biden” and 31 per cent he was more of a “strong leader”.

When asked who was more “fun,” only 19 per cent said Mr DeSantis.

Among national GOP voters, 45 per cent said Mr DeSantis was the more “moral” of the top two contenders for the nomination, the same figure as for who was more “likeable”.

The national GOP had significantly less faith in Mr DeSantis’ ability to beat Joe Biden, with only 22 per cent saying the governor had a bigger chance in 2024.

In the national GOP, 16 per cent of voters said Mr DeSantis was more “fun”.

DeSantis more favourable than Trump among Iowa ROP

Saturday 5 August 2023 03:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Despite his lead in Iowa, Mr Trump is in second place in the state when it comes to favourable ratings.

South Carolina Senator Tim Scott comes in third place with 70 per cent of Iowa Republicans having a favourable view of him.

Mr Trump comes in at 72 per cent with Mr DeSantis in the lead with a favourable rating at 77 in the NYT/Siena poll.

Half of white evangelical Iowa Republicans back Trump

Saturday 5 August 2023 01:30 , Gustaf Kilander

Half of white evangelical members of Iowa GOP voters support Mr Trump, six per cent more than Mr Trump’s support in the state as a whole.

Mr Trump’s former Vice President Mike Pence has the same level of support among white evangelicals as he has among Iowa Republicans as a whole – three per cent.

Among white evangelicals, 48 per cent has a favourable view while 49 per cent has an unfavourable view, according to the NYT/Siena poll.

Trump lead in Iowa ten points smaller than nationwide

Saturday 5 August 2023 00:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Mr Trump’s lead in Iowa is ten points smaller in Iowa than among GOP voters nationwide.

Mr DeSantis has 20 per cent support in Iowa to Mr Trump’s 44 per cent, according to a Times/Siena poll.

Nationwide, Mr Trump leads the field with 54 per cent support to Mr DeSantis’s 17 per cent.

In Iowa, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott is in third place with nine per cent, followed by entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at five per cent, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley at four per cent, and former Vice President Mike Pence at three per cent.

97% of Iowa Trump-backers say their support is strong

Friday 4 August 2023 23:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Ninety-seven per cent of Trump-supporting Iowa Republicans taking part in the recent NYT/Siena poll said that they support the former president strongly.

That figure for Mr DeSantis is 76 per cent. For those backing other candidates, 54 per cent said they support them strongly.

Almost half of all Trump supporters in Iowa open to backing other candidates

Friday 4 August 2023 22:00 , Gustaf Kilander

The NYT/Siena poll of Iowa Republicans has revealed that around 47 per cent of those backing Mr Trump are open to supporting other candidates.

Among GOP voters in the state with a college degree, Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis are tied at 26 per cent support each.

But in a head-to-head poll in Iowa between Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis, the former president leads his rival, 55 to 39 per cent.

If the matchup is limited to college-educated voters, Mr DeSantis leads Mr Trump in Iowa 53 to 38 per cent.

14 per cent of voters decline to support either Trump or Biden

Friday 4 August 2023 20:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Mr Biden and Mr Trump are tied at 43 per cent according to a NYT/Siena College poll conducted last month, with 14 per cent of respondents declining to back either of them.

Some said they wouldn’t vote, while others said they would vote for a third party candidate and a number didn’t provide an answer at all.

But a number of these voters will likely vote for Mr Biden or Mr Trump in next year’s election. And while they’re far from excited about Mr Biden, they strongly dislike Mr Trump.

Of these voters, 27 per cent have a favourable view of Mr Biden, while only 15 per cent have a favourable view of Mr Trump, according to the poll.

Trump claims he’s ‘leading Biden by a lot’ even as poll finds them tied

Friday 4 August 2023 16:57 , Gustaf Kilander

Biden thought to be headed for close reelection fight

Thursday 3 August 2023 03:00 , John Bowden

Enthusiasm among primary voters is an important factor for candidates involved in especially close races — or, conversely, can be seen as the reason those races are close to begin with. Mr Biden is thought to be headed for a close reelection fight as voters sour on the idea of re-electing someone who was already the oldest individual to ever take the oath of office of president, even as his likely opponent is battered by escalating legal troubles.

Hillary Clinton’s inability to stoke enthusiasm for her campaign after her defeat of Bernie Sanders in the 2016 Democratic primary was viewed as a significant factor leading to her eventual loss to Mr Trump that year.

But as it stands, Mr Biden will almost certainly be his party’s nominee, concerns about age aside. His two announced challengers for the Democratic nomination, Robert F Kennedy Jr and Marianne Williamson, trailed him by more than 50 points each.

The NYT/Siena poll was conducted between 23-27 July and included a subpopulation of 296 likely Democratic primary voters.

Democrats would prefer Kamala Harris over Joe Biden as 2024 nominee, new poll shows

Wednesday 2 August 2023 22:00 , John Bowden

Another new poll is out suggesting that Democrats could have a stronger chance at winning in 2024 should President Joe Biden step aside for a younger successor.

The survey, published by The New York Times in partnership with Siena College, was released on Tuesday. It found low numbers of enthusiasm among Democrats for the re-nomination of either Mr Biden or a potential decision by the president against running for reelection in favour of endorsing his vice president, Kamala Harris, to run in his stead.

But the latter option was more popular among members of the president’s party by six percentage points, indicating that Democrats’ primary concern with the Biden brand is the stamina of the candidate himself. There’s a catch, however — the percentage of Democratic primary voters who were unsure about how they would feel about their party’s nominee jumps slightly were Ms Harris to take the reins, and as a result the total percentage of primary voters who were at the very least “satisfied” with their party’s pick was actually lower with Ms Harris at the top of the ticket.

It was a confounding poll result that reveals one fact clearly: Democratic voters are deeply unsure about who they want to be their party’s standard-bearer should the incumbent president be sidelined for any reason. And separately, the poll found concerns about age outweighed any other complaint levied against Mr Biden by primary voters by an almost 2-to-1 margin.

Read more:

Democrats would prefer Kamala Harris over Joe Biden as 2024 nominee, new poll shows

Trump dominates GOP primary as general election looks set to be 2020 rematch

Wednesday 2 August 2023 16:55 , Gustaf Kilander

The 2024 election looks set to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump.

Despite his mounting legal problems, Mr Trump is by far the most popular candidate in the Republican field.

A recent Times/Siena found that 54 per cent of likely GOP primary voters prefer Mr Trump as the nominee, compared to 17 per cent for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

All other candidates are in the low single digits.

That same poll, conducted last month, found that Mr Trump and Mr Biden are tied in a hypothetical 2024 rematch at 43 per cent each.

Among registered Republicans, 88 per cent supported Mr Trump, while 83 per cent of registered Democrats backed Mr Biden.

Independents supported Mr Biden, 42 to 37 per cent.

Most voters are not excited about their options – 55 per cent said they see Mr Trump somewhat or very unfavourably, with that number being 54 per cent for Mr Biden.

The poll was conducted between 23 and 27 July and included 1,329 registered voters.