Trump’s Guaranteed Victory in Nevada to Build on 2024 Momentum
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(Bloomberg) -- Former President Donald Trump is set for an all but guaranteed victory in Nevada this week that will build on his momentum in the swing state.
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The state is host to dueling contests this week — a state-run primary on Tuesday that holds largely symbolic significance and a party-run caucus two days later when delegates will be allocated – in a confusing process that has sparked criticism nationally.
Trump opted to participate in the Feb. 8 Republican Party-run caucus, virtually ensuring he’ll win Nevada’s 26 delegate votes. He isn’t on the primary ballot, where choices include Nikki Haley, the former ambassador to the United Nations, and an option for “none of these candidates” — which voters could use to send Haley a message of disapproval.
The setup has sparked criticism that state Republicans are giving Trump an unfair advantage. It’s also making Nevada inconsequential during the 2024 primary season, even though it’s likely to be one of six swing states in the presidential election, said Jeremy Gelman, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno.
“Trump would have done very well here regardless – he’s very popular with the Republican rank and file members in the state,” Gelman said. “Does he need the extra assistance from the caucus? Probably not. Does the caucus help him? It certainly has.”
Nevada voters favor Trump over Biden in a head-to-head matchup, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey. Trump has made periodic visits to Las Vegas for campaign events and has also gone out west to meet with big donors. On Sunday, Biden held a rally in Las Vegas’s west side, a historically Black neighborhood, as he looks to bolster his standing with Black and Hispanic voters.
This week’s separate ballots came about because the Nevada Republican Party pushed to keep its caucus after a Democratic-backed state law in 2021 required a primary election for each political party.
The Nevada GOP decided that candidates couldn’t run in both races, and that only the winner of the caucus would receive all of the delegate votes to the Republican National Convention.
Betsy Ankney, Haley’s campaign manager, said the campaign has never been focused on Nevada and is instead looking to South Carolina’s race. “We have not spent a dime nor an ounce of energy on Nevada,” she said in a statement, adding that the process was “rigged” for Trump.
A spokesperson for Trump’s campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Daniele Monroe-Moreno, the chair of the state’s Democratic Party, said she thinks the caucus is being used by the Nevada GOP to tilt the vote in Trump’s favor. “It has been confusing for voters,” she said.
“I tell Democrats to pop popcorn and watch the chaos,” she said.
Nevada Republicans have had their share of turmoil. Two senior state party officials, Michael McDonald and Jim DeGraffenreid, were among six people indicted by a grand jury in December for falsely portraying themselves as state electors after the 2020 presidential election. They’re accused of participating in an illegal attempt to hand Nevada’s electoral votes to Trump.
‘Embodiment’ of Swing States
Nevada is one of six states considered a toss-up by the Cook Political Report. While Biden carried the state in 2020 and Hillary Clinton won Nevada in 2016, Republicans have been making inroads there recently.
In 2022, Republican Joe Lombardo unseated the state’s Democratic governor, beating him by nearly 15,400 votes, while Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto held her Senate seat in another tight race.
Keith Schipper, communications director for the Republican National Committee, cited narrowing Democratic margins of victory in Nevada in recent presidential races. In a potential model for 2024, working-class and Latino voters helped Lombardo win the gubernatorial race in 2022.
“The state truly is an embodiment of the swing states watched on election night,” Schipper said.
Clark County, home to Las Vegas and where most Nevadans live, is key to the state economy. The tourism industry supported nearly a third of jobs in Nevada in 2022 and its total economic impact was estimated to make up 43% of the state’s total gross domestic product, according to a report by the Nevada Resort Association, an industry group. But the state is often hit hard by economic downturns, such as the pandemic-induced shutdown in 2020, given that reliance on tourism.
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey found that 83% of Nevadans consider the economy very important in determining whom they’ll back in the presidential election.
Charlie Siva, who has lived in Las Vegas for 25 years, said the economy is “point blank” a major issue. Siva cited inflation.
“We need a change for this country,” said Siva, who doesn’t plan to vote for Biden.
Campaign Boosters
There are several deep-pocketed donors in the state who could step in to boost Trump, such as casino magnate Miriam Adelson. Hotelier Robert Bigelow told Reuters that he gave $1 million to Trump to cover his legal bills and that he will donate another $20 million to a super PAC.
Even though Trump is essentially guaranteed a victory in the caucus, Nevada state assembly member Ken Gray, a Republican and supporter of Trump, said the campaign has not taken any contest for granted. He said the campaigning now will not be in vain as it could mobilize his base for the general election. “I think it’s going to pay off big, we’re going to go red for him this time,” Gray said.
The Democratic Party has a strong get out the vote effort, fueled by the “Reid Machine” built by the late senator Harry Reid. They are also well funded. In 2023, the Nevada State Democratic Party raised $1.2 million and spent just $243,000. By contrast, the state Republican Party raised $15,000, its filings with the Nevada Secretary of State show. Last month, the Democratic National Committee announced a six-figure ad blitz in Nevada and South Carolina for the presidential primary.
Monroe-Moreno said she’s expecting another nail-biter in Nevada in November. “Nevada is the linchpin in winning,” she said.
--With assistance from Stephanie Lai, Bill Allison, Christian Hall, Nancy Cook and Gregory Korte.
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