A historian who has successfully predicted every presidential election since 1984 says that he believes Donald Trump’s impeachment by the full House of Representatives is now “inevitable”, just days after the first public hearings in those proceedings were held.
Democrats, he reasoned, would not have brought the impeachment process this far if they were not confident that they could bring forward successful articles of impeachment.
“Impeachment is now inevitable,” Mr Lichtman said during an appearance on Weekends with Alex Witt. “The Democrats would never have taken it this far — we know how cautious Nancy Pelosi is — without actually voting articles of impeachment in the full House.”
He continued: “The only question is the scope and content of those articles.”
Mr Lichtman was less certain about what will happen in the 2020 election, but said that the scandal plaguing Mr Trump’s White House is likely to only hurt his chances at re-election.
“But I can tell you that Democrats, by finally growing a spine, and moving forward on a pretty clear impeachment… have helped themselves,” he said.
“When Donald Trump becomes only the third American president to be impeached by the full House, that scandal key will have flipped against him, and diminished his chances for re-election,” Mr Lichtman said, referring to the prediction system he has developed and used over the past several decades.
The predictions came after the first week of public impeachment hearings, which saw testimony from former Ukraine ambassador Marie Yovanovitch, State Department official George Kent, and the top US diplomat to Ukraine Bill Taylor.
The House will continue its impeachment inquiries this week, with expected appearances from EU ambassador Gordon Sondland, and National Security Council staffer Lt Col Alexander Vindman.